WXNewton

Can anyone speak on the WRF models and their accuracy? They have a major ICE storm much further south than any other model, do they tend to overdue cold air at the surface and precip?

Just did a trend on the Canadian from last night and it clearly shows signs of a deeper wedge with more icing each run.

Comparing all of this mornings runs, it doesn't look great for the areas along the Parkway and border counties.

I thought about heading up to the cabin to wait it out and see, but the whole family has the flu. Really hoping we don't get that much, that would be a lot of cleaning up to do! Folks along the river in my area have pretty much lost their home and most possessions during the hurricane. I guess we will find out which trees and limbs are still barely hanging on.

It will be interesting to see how the short range models trend over the next 18-24 hrs. This ice could keep showing further and further south right up until the storm starts. Here's the latest WRF-ARW2

Nice didn't even glance at other models that far out. I will say we have had some active weather here historically during that timeframe over the years.

Euro AI on the 22nd and 23rd would make us all happy, too bad it's two weeks away.

I have a feeling that once that storm gets into the short range, the NAM and RGEM might expand that I've even further south. I've said it before, the wedge always seems to even pool a little deeper once it sinks down into the Catawba Valley area. It will definitely be worth watching.

12z GFS still has a pretty nasty Ice Storm along the border counties. Last three runs.

GFS trending further south once again things shaping up to be ice in some of the typical CAD areas.

12z Euro has trended much further south and now has some icing back into the MTNs, Ashe, Watauga counties. Looks like this could come further south as we get closer.

I agree, I just did a trend on the surface temps on the Euro AI run and the northern progression of temps at or below 32 seem to hold steady (roughly) in the same counties as the previous run. It's has def. trended warmer, but at least that trend has slowed down a lot on the last run when compared to the previous runs. I have observed the CAD in the heart of Catawba County for many years, and if a high pressure gets somewhat locked in, I know for a fact it is almost always colder than what the models show. It never fails, the short range models will tend to lock in the cold air deeper and longer usually in the last 12-18 hours before an event. I think this wedge could be modeled a little stronger over the NW Piedmont and Southern Foothills as time goes on.

Starting to come in alignment with ensembles, I think this storm is presenting itself early where the bulk of the frozen will be.

12 GFS ENS. look to be headed in the right direction, snowfall starting to align more with your I85 line and def. further south than 06z and 00Z.

Ensembles actually had accumulating snow a little further south than 00z though. Have to look more at ensembles at this range than single model runs. 00z Canadian Ensembles also has accumulating snow for much of the state.

Looks like 00z euro ensembles are going to slightly increase snowfall totals over most of the area when compared to 12z. Can't load map right now but definitely looks like a small increase.

GFS hangs the high pressure up in southern central Canada for days and days and really never pushes south or east, seems odd.

How many inches does the Dark Blue rep?

Yeah, especially the AIFS, which almost has Miller A look to it. Looks like several more waves of energy behind the first part on GFS. I would expect some major back and forth the rest of this week to see how the models will key on all that energy and the overall evolution of each piece. I think the key will be where that frontal boundary ends up and if the high can get locked in a little longer in the NE.

GFS coming in with a nasty ice storm, looks like a prolonged period of freezing rain from roughly N of 40 and I 85.

Euro, Gfs and Canadian Ens are showing some potential in the Feb 7-11 timeframe.

Looks like Monday's fast moving system is trending a little snowier along the northern edge on the GFS.

12z CMC still has a nasty ice storm for the cad region, again timing would have to be perfect high is retreating. Verbatim temps in mid 20s in the heart of the CAD slowly warming to around 31-32 by the end of the storm.

Yeah was just looking at ensembles, on both GFS and Euro have cold enough air possible on Friday/Sat timeframe with moisture close by. Wedge seems to break down by Sunday as bulk of moisture moves in. I think you definitely hit the nail on the head, it's always about timing and this looks to be a shot where the cold is retreating as moisture moves in. Something to keep an eye on, but I would say the chances have probably decreased for significant ice.

As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster.