Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

practically speaking it's all horizontal.  Tornadoes loft debris tens of thousands of feet in the air, a hurricane doesn't loft debris any appreciable amount, event light stuff.  You can step out into 150 mph winds from a hurricane and most likely be fine, you do that during an EF3 and you're dead.

If your entire body steps out into open space in 150 mph  sustained you will become airborne 

[ATDoel]

6 minutes ago, str8liner said:

What are the water temps between Jamaica and Cuba? That will play a factor. If they are just as warm I would think it would have to strengthen some.

bath water 

[dan11295]

That gust report in Montego bay seems a bit high, they still got 20-30 minutes before they get into the eyewall based on Pilon, Cuba radar.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The airport hasn’t reported. Might be some sort of synthetic ob?

[eyewall]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The airport hasn’t reported. Might be some sort of synthetic ob?

Could be. I am not sure.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[marsman]

Black River Hospital:

https://x.com/dentona22/status/1983219897933975711
 

[eyewall]

2pm advisory still just below 900mb at 899 with 165mph max sustained. 

[GaWx]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB...26.55 INCHES
165/899

 There’s clearly NNE movement now.

[NJwx85]

The eye is slowly constricting as you would expect, but the remainder of the structure is holding together remarkably well considering the land interaction and high terrain.

[NorthHillsWx]

Depending on structure when this gets back over water I’m not sure we don’t see another cat 5 landfall on Cuba. Environment is still extremely conducive until the Cuban landfall when shear will begin to increase 

[Lava Rock]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

can't believe they still have power/internet

[dan11295]

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

can't believe they still have power/internet

Looks like its about to get much worse there very shortly.

[Arnold214]

[TheDreamTraveler]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Depending on structure when this gets back over water I’m not sure we don’t see another cat 5 landfall on Cuba. Environment is still extremely conducive until the Cuban landfall when shear will begin to increase 

Was thinking the same thing. We may have to anticipate and watch this happen all over again in a few days. Even if just a cat 4 it's going to be a disaster for Cuba so I hope the people covering Jamaica didn't burn themselves out when we focus on Cuba

[Wild Weather Monger]

Montego Bay seems to be destined to be struck by the intense western eyewall..  Yikes.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[Wannabehippie]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

can't believe they still have power/internet

Battery power, satellite internet?

[MonumentalNole]

7 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Was thinking the same thing. We may have to anticipate and watch this happen all over again in a few days. Even if just a cat 4 it's going to be a disaster for Cuba so I hope the people covering Jamaica didn't burn themselves out when we focus on Cuba

I am fairly confident in saying anyone covering the ground in Jamaica will not be able to find travel accommodations in order to get to Cuba in time.

[dan11295]

Wonder how much longer that Montego Bay stream stays up? That northern eye wall is very intense on radar.

[RU848789]

29 minutes ago, ATDoel said:

practically speaking it's all horizontal.  Tornadoes loft debris tens of thousands of feet in the air, a hurricane doesn't loft debris any appreciable amount, event light stuff.  You can step out into 150 mph winds from a hurricane and most likely be fine, you do that during an EF3 and you're dead.

150 mph winds are 150 mph winds, regardless of "source," plus the radial inflow and vertical winds in both types of storms (vertical motion exists in both kinds of storms) are far lower than the tangential/horizontal winds and I'm certain standing in 150 mph winds from either source will lead to injury or death.  However, it is true that the rate of change of the wind speed in a tornado is usually greater than in a hurricane due to the shear/torque component of tornadoes and that can exacerbate damage, but the far bigger component is the actual horizontal wind speed.  Also, Cat 5 hurricanes have a lot more mesoscale vortices than weaker hurricanes and these produce more turbulence/localized shear and can behave more like tornadoes.  

[ATDoel]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

150 mph winds are 150 mph winds, regardless of "source," plus the radial inflow and vertical winds in both types of storms (vertical motion exists in both kinds of storms) are far lower than the tangential/horizontal winds and I'm certain standing in 150 mph winds from either source will lead to injury or death.  However, it is true that the rate of change of the wind speed in a tornado is usually greater than in a hurricane due to the shear/torque component of tornadoes and that can exacerbate damage, but the far bigger component is the actual horizontal wind speed.  Also, Cat 5 hurricanes have a lot more mesoscale vortices than weaker hurricanes and these produce more turbulence/localized shear and can behave more like tornadoes.  

There are plenty of videos of storm chasers standing in major hurricane/typhoon winds, you will never find one of a chaser standing directly in any tornado of any size.  You're severely downplaying the importance of the vertical component.

I'm not going to post a video here because I don't want to confuse anyone, but look up Typhoon Haiyan videos.

[jconsor]

The part of SE Cuba expected to be hit hardest (Santiago de Cuba) has very little precedent for Cat 3s, and none for Cat 4s: 

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983236668933988715

[bobbutts]

Eye has really contracted since lf.

[SnowGoose69]

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

[Normandy Ho]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

Agree the backside after she kisses water again will be vicious 

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Depending on structure when this gets back over water I’m not sure we don’t see another cat 5 landfall on Cuba. Environment is still extremely conducive until the Cuban landfall when shear will begin to increase 

Melissa is dealing with some terrain almost 2000' asl.  It's not like Katrina crossing the Everglades without losing steam.

[gallopinggertie]

11 minutes ago, jconsor said:

The part of SE Cuba expected to be hit hardest (Santiago de Cuba) has very little precedent for Cat 3s, and none for Cat 4s: 

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983236668933988715

The population there is a lot more concentrated in a single city than western Jamaica. You have one big city, Santiago de Cuba, with half a million people - and hardly anyone at all lives on the coast west of there. Right now the NHC tracks Melissa what looks to be 30 or so miles west of the city. Hopefully they escape the worst winds and surge. They are on a kind of estuary/bay so I’m worried it is surge prone. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Strongest winds at Montego Bay might be behind the eye once the winds come more W-SW

The live feed looks fierce right now. 

[WolfStock1]

Definite eye breakdown / contraction going on.

[GaWx]

 Per Brad P. to the SE of the center in Santa Cruz, there are funnel clouds just now appearing: