jconsor

@vortex95 @jbenedet Would be interested to hear how would you counter Ryan and Tomer Burg's claim that this is merely a warm seclusion with no subtropical characteristics? Personally I think this is well on its way to being subtropical. You don't get a burst of convection like that near the center over 25C waters with thicknesses near 580 from upper-level/synoptic forcing alone like Tomer claims. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2103912607010750893 https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2103917149110653089

WPC analyzed the low as 995 mb at 15z: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=sfc

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

While GRAF is likely overdone, I do think we likely see 75+ mph wind gusts not too far offshore of NJ. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2103311148711854175

The REFS (RRFS ensemble) probability of wind gusts exceeding High Wind Warning criteria e.g. 58 mph for Sat into early Sun morning remains unnervingly high for the South Shore of LI as well as Eastern Suffolk. Additionally, on this run, the probabilities over 25% have edged into southern portions of NYC like southern SI and far southern Brooklyn and Queens. Still unclear to me why NWS Upton is holding back on a high wind warning for the above-mentioned areas, especially eastern Suffolk where the model consensus is strongest. Note the REFS has shifted NW with the position of the low pressure and the 850 mb low center at 48 hours, if you compare to the 60 hour forecast from the previous post.

The NWS water level forecast for Sandy Hook may be conservative. Consensus of the 3 main forecast models (https://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/) is for a water level peaking around 9 feet, with potential for 9.5-10 feet in the higher end scenarios. That could easily put this event as the fourthhighest in the past 60 years.

I agree the specific REFS scenario should be largely dismissed, though the idea of a westward turn occurring fairly far south near southern NJ and the Delmarva has merit IMHO. The REFS (RRFS ensemble) has a lot of value and so far I have barely seen anyone mentioning it. Probably because the site with REFS graphics seems to be a pretty well kept secret: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/ The images I posted below show probability of 58 mph wind gusts (HWW criteria) at 42, 54 and 60 hours from the most recent REFS run (15z). Based on this I think a HWW would be well justified for the south shore of LI as well as eastern Suffolk, perhaps even into se CT. I also added the MSLP and 850 mb wind forecasts from the REFS at 60 hours, showing the mean places the storm well north of the RRFS operational.

Port Arthur is ~10 miles inland and still well outside the core of tiny Edouard - not surprising winds haven't been very strong so far, but that could change soon. Texas Point (at Sabine Pass) on the coast at the border of TX/LA has recently seen sustained NNW winds to 50 kt with gusts to 59 kt. This is on the "weaker" western side of the storm. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=txpt2 On the eastern side, but a little outside the eyewall, around 12 PM CT Calcasieu Pass, LA saw sustained winds to 38 kt and gusts 45 kt. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=capl1

While I do think Chris Martz is largely off his rocker and clearly biased, this new information (if verified) does change the background to the Nepal floods significantly IMHO: https://x.com/MatthewWielicki/status/2094549198473740371

As others have been discussing, Dolly has proven quite resilient vs. model expectations, with the recent 'explosion' of convection seemingly aided by the diffluent, highly sheared flow. Surface obs from the Leeward Islands in the NE Caribbean have been quite interesting. I agree with @vortex95 that it's pretty clear Dolly doesn't meet the criteria for a TC, but it is not far off IMHO. Thread here: https://x.com/yconsor/status/2094029423624310857

AI models are not infallible. Sometimes they can be "blind" until the last minute, as appears to be the case with 96L. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092682443710923077

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck... https://x.com/yconsor/status/2092623985091494311

You can find VP anomaly from 1940s to present from JMA 3Q reanalysis here: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_jun_tcc.html (10 day means) https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html (monthly means) In the menu on upper left under "Field", click on Tropics. Then under Element, click 200 hPa Velocity Potential.

Recent guidance targeting northern NJ for heaviest rainfall: https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/2082103580756971568

Our next US hurricane threat comes from an unlikely place so early in the season - the eastern/central Pacific! Fausto is expected to track west in general direction of Hawaii by mid next week, but big questions remain on whether it turns more NW and weakens (a la EPS) or continues westward and threatens Hawaii. Even a tropical storm strength system passing near Hawaii so early in the season would be in rare company. Check out my latest blog with more details: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/eastern-pacific-stealing-tropical (Note - while my blog is mainly Atlantic focused, when there is a land threat in the eastern or central Pacific I will cover it. The subsequent posts on Fausto will be more in-depth than this one... please follow the blog on Substack for updates.)

Bertha has been a rather confounding/challenging TC to forecast. I'd be wary of being fooled by its current appearance (LLC decoupled from convection). Posted in-depth thoughts on Bertha's future here at my blog: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/bertha-gaining-strength-heading-for

While there is typically relatively high uncertainty for nascent, not well defined systems, I agree with NHC and posters here that the uncertainty here is unusually high due to the forecast coast-parallel track and the strong dependence of the track later this week on how quickly future Bertha gets organized in the next day or two. I go into the potential scenarios and all of the details here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tropical-storm-bertha-likely-to-form?r=etzas

Will the tropical system off the west coast of Florida manage to organize despite moderate northerly wind shear over the next few days? It's expected to spend three to five days over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which suggests we shouldn't count this system out. While a weaker system is the most likely scenario, there is the potential for a stronger system if it continues moving west under strong central/southeast US ridging and doesn't turn quickly northward toward Florida. https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tricky-forecast-for-gulf-of-mexico

Everyone is focused on the TX/LA impacts (rightfully so), but just wanted to note that by Fri this could easily have a "second coming" and bring tropical storm conditions to the coastal Carolinas. I wrote about this in my blog: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/low-pressure-high-water-gulf-system?r=etzas

Seeing some potential interesting tropical mischief in the GOM next week. A stalled frontal boundary providing vorticity, remnant energy from the system entering the BOC this weekend dragging up lots of tropical moisture, and indications of a pocket of lower shear and diffluence between central US trough and a persistent GOM ridge: https://x.com/yconsor/status/2065067111521652967

13/6/2 with 90 ACE (I think a reasonable range for ACE accounting for uncertainty at this stage is 60-115 ACE). My ACE forecast is slightly lower than the mean of the seasonal forecasts on https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-predictions See https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/about/forecasters for more background on how each group/agency produces its seasonal forecasts. 268Wx and Univ. of Arizona have shown particular skill vs. other forecasts in past +ENSO years like 2019 and 2023 (when ACE was generally notably higher than most seasonal forecasts) and in -ENSO years like 2022 and 2024 (when ACE was generally notably lower than most seasonal forecasts). Interestingly, 268Wx and Univ. of Arizona this year represent the far high end of the forecast spectrum in terms of ACE/level of activity. -Yaakov

Went into more depth on the potential implications of the persistent -PDO for how the El Nino evolves and the degree of atmospheric coupling in the thread below. Would honestly surprise me to see this El Nino and the pattern in the Atlantic tropics evolve like 1982, 1987, 1997 and 2015. I'm thinking we most likely see something about halfway in between those years and "Active El Ninos" like 1951, 1969, and 2018 - perhaps something a little more active than 1957, 1965, 1976 and 2002 in terms of Atlantic activity. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2052132299139858764

The equatorial east Atlantic and west Africa have seen persistent westerly wind anomalies and above normal precip since mid-March, which is uncharacteristic of developing El Ninos. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2045877323635810439

University of Arizona has a bold forecast, much more active than other forecasts to date: 9 hurricanes and 4 majors with an ACE of 155. Their model is based on machine learning initialized with ECMWF seasonal forecast SSTs. They cite forecast significantly above normal tropical Atlantic SSTs as the main factor. News release: https://has.arizona.edu/news/forecast-2026-hurricane-activities-over-north-atlantic More technical summary: https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/April-2026-Tropical-Cyclone-Forecast.pdf Seasonal hurricane predictions that have been issued so far: https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/forecast/seasonal-prediction Univ. of Arizona has a very good track record. They started issuing Apr outlooks in 2022. Their Jun forecasts were notably higher than almost all others in 2017, 2019 and 2023 and ended up verifying well (In Jun 2017 they forecast 181 ACE and actual was 225, while most other outlooks were in the 100-130 range). In Jun 2019 they forecast 151 ACE and actual was 132, while most other outlooks were in the 80-105 range. In Apr 2023, they forecast 163 ACE and actual was 148, while most other outlooks were in the 90-130 range). Notice that all 3 years had El Nino conditions at the time of forecast initialization and the Nino was forecast to strengthen - but in 2017 and 2019 that strengthening failed to occur and in 2023 the Nino ended up weaker than many models had forecast and while it limited Atlantic activity to a degree, it was less impactful than expected. In 2022, 2024 and 2025 their Apr outlooks were notably lower than almost all others (In 2022 UA forecast 129 ACE and actual was 96, while almost all other outlooks were in the 150-190 range. In 2024, they forecast 156 ACE and actual was 162, with almost all other outlooks in the 185-230 range. In 2025, they forecast 110 ACE and actual was 133, with most other outlooks in the 145-190 range.) You can download all of the historical hurricane season prediction data for past years from the Univ of Barcelona site linked above. Personally I would go with an ACE range of 80-130 right now. Main reason is I believe the standing wave of low-level westerlies over the eastern Atlantic and west Africa will help lead to an Atlantic Nino, energize the W. African monsoon (WAM) and lead to an active wave train, while as we know El Nino influence on shear is mainly west of 60W. Also, the persistent very warm SST anomalies in the NW Pacific from E of Japan to S of AK and the SW Pacific east of AU/NZ (e.g. negative IPO) along with the above-mentioned Atlantic Nino and African standing wave would likely lead to resistance toward WWBs reaching the eastern Pacific (with the focus remaining near the dateline). This would tend to shift the Walker circulation west of a typical moderate to strong Nino. I think there's a 55% chance RONI stays below strong Nino levels through Aug-Oct. Not ruling out a strong Nino, but I think a super Nino RONI-wise is unlikely (<15%) through Aug-Oct. My main analog years are 1951, 1963, 1969, 2006, 2015, and 2018, with more emphasis on the first three given the strong WAM that prevailed.

Nice points. I agree - the lean toward La Ninas has acted as at least a slight brake on the global temp rise over the past three decades. Global temp anomalies past 10 years or so have increased more rapidly in the extratropics than the tropics. See this post from Dr. Joseph Fournier: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_following-the-15-year-great-hiatus-2000-activity-7449541780481654784-8jWQ? The attached graph is from the same post and is generated using satellite temperature estimates.