jconsor

That's quite impressive, especially so early on in the storm. At least as of yesterday, seems most forecasters/models were not expecting rainfall rates to reach or exceed 2" per hour... as @wdragmentioned, this has the potential to be a higher-impact flooding event than currently signaled by NWS.

For those interested in the potential tropical/subtropical transition of this storm (mainly after it impacts the NE US and moves slowly east across the western Atlantic), worth reading this summary linked below from the NWS about how a hurricane developed in the midst of the large circulation of the Perfect Storm in Oct 1991. Difference here is that the tropical cyclone that developed inside the Perfect Storm quickly moved north into Atlantic Canada and was only a TC for a little over a day (after being subtropical for 12 hours). In our case, the tropical/subtropical system could persist for many days (til at least Nov 4 based on EPS and GEFS, possibly even a few days after that) as it drifts east and remains separated from the westerlies

Long thread offering some thoughts on why the ITCZ and Caribbean activity have been suppressed up until now in Oct... Why some forecasters are convinced the season is over in the Atlantic: ...And how a significant change in the pattern is coming next two weeks that favors better chance of Caribbean activity:

Nice post! There were a lot more October landfalls along the US East Coast from SC northward to New England from the late 1600s to the early 1800s than since 1850. I was able to find at least two that hit the East Coast in Oct and probably originated east of 55W, based on historical accounts: The 1804 "Snow hurricane" that caused severe damage from NJ to New England on Oct 9. Chenoweth who did a reanalysis of 1700-1850 cites this storm as having tracked north of Puerto Rico. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane Further details on damage in the northeast US: https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/HHITProject/HHITyears/1804/1804.htm 1706 tropical storm that tracked from Barbados to NY, with damage from wind and rain reported in NY/CT on Oct 15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century Chenoweth paper: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Chenoweth/chenoweth06.pdf BTW and for entertainment purposes only, the 12z CFS is fixin' to break the record you mentioned. It shows a TS forming on Sep 27 just west of the CV islands and tracking west to a position just NE of the Leeward Islands Oct 2-3, then rounding an anomalously strong W Atl ridge before hitting eastern New England on Oct 7.

Some insights into the lack of US landfalling hurricanes (along with no major hurricane landfalls) between 2006 and 2015, and the recent pronounced increase in US landfalling hurricanes.

Interesting analysis on rainfall potential from Nicholas:

About Nicholas's wobbling... it is likely temporary.

@OSUmetstudI agree with the idea that Larry was most likely overestimated yesterday, considering the SFMR winds and dropsondes from recon. Larry likely got down to cat 1 at some point late yesterday into early today. IMHO there is a good chance it will become better organized and likely will be a cat 2 until just before Newfoundland landfall. See short thread below.

Thanks!

Thanks for the local perspective, Nick @OSUmetstud! Appreciate it very much. What's your Twitter handle? Mine is @yconsor. I've also been posting some updates on potential Newfoundland impacts from Larry there.

Mindy could produce some surprises for NE FL and SE GA, including inland areas.