jconsor

JMA scenario of rising cell in Western Pacific continuing to dominate into mid-Aug is unlikely to verify, in my view.

W Pacific TC activity has a significant suppressive influence on favorability for TC activity in the Carib and W. Atlantic, but less influence in the eastern Atlantic.

The 83 mph gust at Matinecock Point was from a WeatherFlow station and was slightly elevated (45 feet or 13.7 m versus standard 10 m anemometer height). It converts to around 80 mph at standard height. The station is called Bayville by WeatherFlow, but is actually located at the northern end of Glen Cove, slightly west of Bayville. Another elevated WeatherFlow station (71 feet or 21.6 m, on top of a lighthouse) in Eatons Neck reported a 80 mph gust, which converts to around 74 mph at standard height. A Weather Underground station in nearby Centre Island reported a 67 mph gust. Per the WeatherFlow stations, gusts on the immediate South Shore were a little lower than on the immediate North Shore. Highest gust I saw from WeatherFlow stations on the South Shore was 60 mph in Oak Beach near the eastern end of Jones Beach Island. You can view the WeatherFlow data (for a limited time, as long as Hurricane Iota is still around) here: http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/iota#40.641,-73.27,15,19

Breezy Point gust was very close to standard anemometer height (34 feet vs. standard of 33 feet). However that gust was much higher than other gusts on the western south shore. Could have been caused by a mesovortex or other convective feature.

Many of the most intense severe thunderstorms on LI approach from the N or NW. Can't think of examples off the top of my head, but I'm sure others here can.

73 mph wind gust @SUNY Stony Brook: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wx.cgi?call=EW5678

Weather Underground station in Lothian backs that up - they have reported 15.99 since Sat: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDLOTHI9&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek Another station just to the north reported 15.22": https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDHARWO7#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek

I just don't understand why NWS OKX is forecasting the same totals for NE NJ/Staten Island/Brooklyn as central and eastern LI and eastern two-thirds of southern CT. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, NWS OKX also forecasted NYC to s. CT and LI to all receive similar totals. In that event, it was fairly clear (at least to me) 1-2 days in advance from the synoptic situation and mesoscale guidance that eastern/central LI and south-central CT would be the big winners. In that case I believe they forecast 12-20" for both NYC and eastern LI/s. CT. I do see a deform band inland locally enhancing totals somewhere from NYC N and W, but I expect totals in Suffolk County NY and Middlesex/New Haven Counties CT to be close to double those in most of NE NJ and NYC.