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jconsor

Meteorologist
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About jconsor

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    jconsor

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    Jerusalem, Israel

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  1. jconsor

    July Discobs Thread

    Weather Underground station in Lothian backs that up - they have reported 15.99 since Sat: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDLOTHI9&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek Another station just to the north reported 15.22": https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDHARWO7#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek
  2. I haven't done a statistical study on this, but my impression is that at least in the last 20 winters, the North Shore of LI from ne Nassau to about Wading River and Upton has averaged slightly more snow than sw and s-central coastal CT (the area directly to the north).
  3. jconsor

    January 29/30 snow event

    Interestingly UKMET was consistently NW of almost every operational model with NW extent of decent (5-10 mm) QPF. I wonder if ratios will be significantly higher than 10 to 1 in this one given that sfc temps were cooler than expected, there is decent lift in SG zone, and winds not too strong.
  4. Next 7 day forecast is tricky with a few midnight highs and midnight lows. Here's my forecast for NYC Central Park next 7 days: Jan 25 35/23 (low this morning so far was 23F) Jan 26 40/24 Jan 27 52/35 Jan 28 50/40 Jan 29 42/32 Jan 30 32/20 Jan 31 34/18 Average: 40.7/27.4 = 34.1 The average for Central Park these 7 days is (rounded) 39/27, so if my forecast verified, these 7 days would be only around 1F above normal. We'll see. I would consider a near normal stretch in the midst of such an extended overall warmer pattern to be rather impressive.
  5. Don - thanks for the awesome, detailed description of the 1995-96 winter. Brings back good memories! Agreed that a few weeks of thaw mid-winter are common in colder than normal winters.
  6. jconsor

    NYC Metro Snow Total YTD

    Thanks for posting! I'm originally from Roslyn and now living halfway across the world in Israel, so it's helpful to know what's happening on the ground close to home. I left the NY area in 2005 so outside of a few snow events on a brief visit in Jan-early Feb 2014, I have missed the recent storms since Jan 2005. However I have seen some notable snow events in Jerusalem - Feb 2008, Jan 2013, and Feb 2015 all had 6-12". There was a three-day blizzard in Dec 2013 that brought close to two feet of very wet snow with widespread power outages (about 75% of Jerusalem and surrounding areas were without power, with huge trees crashing down next door to our house). Jerusalem lacks proper snow removal equipment and temps were cold for a week after the snow, so getting around was quite treacherous.
  7. jconsor

    .....

    Research by Judah Cohen backs up what you and FreeRain mentioned about a Feb cooling trend past 25 yrs or so @ Central Park, and demonstrates that winter cooling has taken place in the late 1980s-early 2010s over a wide area of eastern and central N. America, as well as northern Europe and northern and central Asia. As is well known, Cohen suggests that a trend toward increasing high-latitude Eurasian snow cover is influencing the cooling in mid-latitudes. A lesser known reason Cohen proposes is a trend toward increased high-latitude moisture. See http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL050582/epdf("Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends", Cohen et. al 2012) and http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/1/014007/pdf/1748-9326_7_1_014007.pdf ("Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling", Cohen et. al 2011) Also nice review article: http://epic.awi.de/36132/1/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf
  8. The SREFs can be a useful tool, if you understand their biases. In general, only the SREF NMM members are worth much. The ARW and NMB members have a pronounced NW/wet bias with coastal storms. Averaging the NMM members from the past 2 SREF runs gives a mean of about 0.05" QPF at LGA, 0.1" at ISP and 0.2" on the Twin Forks. Ratios should be around 20:1. This site has a good objective snow ratio forecast based on NAM and GFS: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm
  9. jconsor

    .....

    If the avg. temp in Central Park Fri stays below 11F, it will be the coldest Feb day since 1979! Sun is another candidate for this. The current NWS forecast is for a daytime high of 14F and a low tonight of 6F. The key will be getting the midnight temp down to around 15F. Sun is another candidate for coldest Feb day since 1979. The coldest Feb day in the last 80 years (since 1934) was 2/7/1958 with a mean temp of 8F.
  10. jconsor

    SuperBowl Storm Observations

    Yes, indeed. It's been a remarkable stretch past 7 winters. According to Islip's F6 monthly climate report available here (http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx), Islip had 24.5" in Feb 2014. Also there is another month to add to the list - Jan 2014 with 25.2"!
  11. jconsor

    SuperBowl Storm Observations

    LGA had around 4": METAR KLGA 020851Z 09013KT 1/2SM R04/5500VP6000FT SN FG OVC006 00/M01 A2974 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP071 SNINCR 1/9 P0014 60030 T00001006 58072 METAR KLGA 012351Z 20006KT 10SM FEW031 SCT038 BKN060 BKN140 OVC250 02/M06 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP201 4/005 T00171061 10022 20017 55005
  12. jconsor

    Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler

    I just don't understand why NWS OKX is forecasting the same totals for NE NJ/Staten Island/Brooklyn as central and eastern LI and eastern two-thirds of southern CT. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, NWS OKX also forecasted NYC to s. CT and LI to all receive similar totals. In that event, it was fairly clear (at least to me) 1-2 days in advance from the synoptic situation and mesoscale guidance that eastern/central LI and south-central CT would be the big winners. In that case I believe they forecast 12-20" for both NYC and eastern LI/s. CT. I do see a deform band inland locally enhancing totals somewhere from NYC N and W, but I expect totals in Suffolk County NY and Middlesex/New Haven Counties CT to be close to double those in most of NE NJ and NYC.
  13. jconsor

    Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    Thanks. However, that link doesn't work for me. It says "content unavailable." Do I need to be invited in order to view his page? His page seems to be a little secretive, as you can't find it by searching on Facebook...
  14. jconsor

    Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

    Hi guys. Would appreciate your help. Anyone know where Craig Allen posts on Facebook? I follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/CraigAllenWx) but whenever I click on his links to FB posts I cannot access them. I consider Craig to be in the top tier of NYC mets. He is a veteran of over 30 years and really knows his stuff, including mesoscale influences such as the Long Island microclimates.
  15. jconsor

    Thanksgiving Eve SECS/MECS Discussion II

    The model errors on dewpoints are a bigger issue - they're busting 7-10F too warm on dewpoints, but only ~2F too cool on temps.
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