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About jconsor

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  1. Interesting correlation between anomalously warm waters in the western Atlantic (off east coast of the US) early in the hurricane season and East coast landfalls. There also may be a correlation with wet Julys in the coastal plain of the northeast US.
  2. I would watch for homegrown development (in GOM or off the coast of eastern US) through the first third of Aug, with limited chance of anything forming in the MDR. Then I would expect MDR activity to begin picking up by around the third week of Aug. However, either type of development would pose higher than usual landfall risks by mid to late Aug based on the projected pattern (similar to the pattern from late Jun to first week of Jul that led to the all-time record heat in the Pacific NW/W. Canada as well as very hot conditions in the ne US).
  3. JMA scenario of rising cell in Western Pacific continuing to dominate into mid-Aug is unlikely to verify, in my view.
  4. W Pacific TC activity has a significant suppressive influence on favorability for TC activity in the Carib and W. Atlantic, but less influence in the eastern Atlantic.
  5. The 83 mph gust at Matinecock Point was from a WeatherFlow station and was slightly elevated (45 feet or 13.7 m versus standard 10 m anemometer height). It converts to around 80 mph at standard height. The station is called Bayville by WeatherFlow, but is actually located at the northern end of Glen Cove, slightly west of Bayville. Another elevated WeatherFlow station (71 feet or 21.6 m, on top of a lighthouse) in Eatons Neck reported a 80 mph gust, which converts to around 74 mph at standard height. A Weather Underground station in nearby Centre Island reported a 67 mph gust. Per the WeatherFlow stations, gusts on the immediate South Shore were a little lower than on the immediate North Shore. Highest gust I saw from WeatherFlow stations on the South Shore was 60 mph in Oak Beach near the eastern end of Jones Beach Island. You can view the WeatherFlow data (for a limited time, as long as Hurricane Iota is still around) here: http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/iota#40.641,-73.27,15,19
  6. Breezy Point gust was very close to standard anemometer height (34 feet vs. standard of 33 feet). However that gust was much higher than other gusts on the western south shore. Could have been caused by a mesovortex or other convective feature.
  7. Many of the most intense severe thunderstorms on LI approach from the N or NW. Can't think of examples off the top of my head, but I'm sure others here can.
  8. 73 mph wind gust @SUNY Stony Brook: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wx.cgi?call=EW5678
  9. Weather Underground station in Lothian backs that up - they have reported 15.99 since Sat: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDLOTHI9&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek Another station just to the north reported 15.22": https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDHARWO7#history/s20180716/e20180724/mweek
  10. I haven't done a statistical study on this, but my impression is that at least in the last 20 winters, the North Shore of LI from ne Nassau to about Wading River and Upton has averaged slightly more snow than sw and s-central coastal CT (the area directly to the north).
  11. Interestingly UKMET was consistently NW of almost every operational model with NW extent of decent (5-10 mm) QPF. I wonder if ratios will be significantly higher than 10 to 1 in this one given that sfc temps were cooler than expected, there is decent lift in SG zone, and winds not too strong.
  12. Next 7 day forecast is tricky with a few midnight highs and midnight lows. Here's my forecast for NYC Central Park next 7 days: Jan 25 35/23 (low this morning so far was 23F) Jan 26 40/24 Jan 27 52/35 Jan 28 50/40 Jan 29 42/32 Jan 30 32/20 Jan 31 34/18 Average: 40.7/27.4 = 34.1 The average for Central Park these 7 days is (rounded) 39/27, so if my forecast verified, these 7 days would be only around 1F above normal. We'll see. I would consider a near normal stretch in the midst of such an extended overall warmer pattern to be rather impressive.
  13. Don - thanks for the awesome, detailed description of the 1995-96 winter. Brings back good memories! Agreed that a few weeks of thaw mid-winter are common in colder than normal winters.
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