Jump to content

jconsor

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    830
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About jconsor

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://www.behindtheforecast.com
  • Skype
    jconsor

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Jerusalem, Israel

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. This event in Nov last year was a squall line with embedded microbursts (no confirmed tornadoes), but reflects the same pattern you mentioned: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/weather/2020/11/20/a-history-of-late-season-tornadoes-in-new-york-city https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20201115 Another one from late Oct 2019 with very widespread reports of severe wind gusts in the mid-Atlantic/NE along a squall line, along with several tornadoes: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/01/halloween-storms-packed-punch-across-region/
  2. Interesting regarding the Long Island tornadoes yesterday (note the tweet incorrectly says CT instead of NY). The analogs and Enhanced Fujita scale probabilities are based on the radar signature. Note that only six of the 34 tornadoes observed on LI between 1950 and 2020 were F2, with no F3 ever observed. Before yesterday, there has never been a Nov tornado observed on LI dating back to 1950: See the following for historical tornado data/trends: https://bronx.news12.com/are-tornadoes-becoming-more-common-on-long-island-41004515 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=(C)+Tornado&beginDate_mm=01&beginDate_dd=01&beginDate_yyyy=1950&endDate_mm=12&endDate_dd=31&endDate_yyyy=2020&county=NASSAU%3A59&county=SUFFOLK%3A103&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=36%2CNEW+YORK
  3. In my view, 96L likely has been subtropical/borderline tropical for around 24 hours. 000 TXNT27 KNES 100038 TCSNTL A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE B. 09/2330Z C. 35.3N D. 61.0W E. THREE/GOES-E F. T2.5/2.5 G. IR/EIR/SWIR H. REMARKS...5.5/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. NO MET AND PT AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM ST TO TROPICAL WITH NO CLASSIFICATION 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS BASED ON DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...TUGGLE
  4. Some context on how rare it would be if Wanda lasts as a tropical cyclone until Sun or Mon:
  5. I agree that the ECMWF is likely too amped and it will be tough to get significant precipitation as far west as the immediate NYC metro... however would not dismiss a high wind threat for E LI with ensembles trending toward more consolidated system with better phasing. Also, closely watching coastal flood threat for NJ shore and LI (astro. high tides peak 11/5-7 due to perigee as well as new moon). Of course, the larger risks for those threats are along the SE coast from N. FL to NC Outer Banks and in SE New England.
  6. Wanda has been quite a resilient, long-lasting system for so late in the year in the subtropics. Has a chance to strengthen into a strong TS or lower-end hurricane Sun-Mon if it gets pulled north by a strong trough and thus moves parallel to shear vector, as shown by several recent GFS and HWRF runs.
  7. The Mediterranean subtropical cyclone, named Apollo, was one of the longest lasting ones I can recall - almost 10 days. It also developed tropical characteristics for a time while it was close to Sicily and Malta:
  8. I think we will get at least one tropical-moisture influenced storm and/or hybrid in the northeast US between Nov 4 and 12. Signal on ensembles is moderate but growing for something subtropical/hybrid to form in the GOM or off SE Coast and move up the east coast between Nov 8 and 12. Also a signal for late-forming secondary low tracking from VA Capes to NE US to late on Nov 4 to Nov 6 with perhaps cold enough air for some snow in the interior.
  9. Thread on #94L which is gaining convection and will likely be named soon as a subtropical storm. It could briefly complete transition to tropical in the next day or two, before shear increases. Wouldn't rule out the possibility it becomes a strong STS or hurricane by mid next week as shear decreases again, but first it has to weather the rapid ramp-up in shear over the weekend.
  10. Outside chance for a brief tropical depression or low-end TS in the eastern Atlantic this weekend into early next week. Would likely be unprecedented per climo so late east of 40W (I couldn't find any TS+ in NHC best track back to late 1800s, but it doesn't include TDs). The fact that we even have a *potential* system to discuss in the eastern MDR so late is nothing short of remarkable. Likely the lingering Atlantic Nino is playing a role, with ITCZ tugged south of usual, allowing waves to stay over more favorable SSTs/upper level winds than is typical for this time of year.
  11. FYI I do not consider the 60-70 mph gusts reported at Baiting Hollow and Stony Brook out in central Suffolk County, LI to be representative. The Stony Brook site anemometer is ~70 feet above ground. I believe Baiting Hollow is on a ~75 foot bluff right on LI Sound. In my experience, both stations tend to run >25% higher than any nearby stations in past events. Compare current sustained winds at both sites to surrounding sites - generally 2x the land stations, even those right along the coast.
×
×
  • Create New...