jconsor

These wind reports are comparable to some seen on the Cape in the Dec 24-25, 1995 nor'easter, with the 80+ mph reports also more widespread than the Oct 29-30, 2017 "Bomb Cyclone" (the storm that may have made that term viral haha).

Here are 48 hour precipitation totals. Widespread 4"+ totals across SE NY. Heaviest amounts in NYC were in lower Manhattan and the Bronx with 4.75-5.5". Looks like the multisensor precip. estimate (which combines radar with sfc. obs) is underestimating precip. by ~15-20% based on mesonet obs. Numerous Weather Underground stations confirm what is shown on the multisensor precip. estimate - highest amounts were in the ne three-quarters of Suffolk County with widespread 5"+, locally 7-8.5" in the area around Stony Brook, Setauket, Centereach and St. James. A small area of SW CT near Westport and Fairfield also saw 6-7" totals, but these were quite localized and mainly near immediate shore. Very impressive mesoscale banding out there! Will be interested to see CoCoRAHS totals later. Thank G-d these rains fell on dry soil and rainfall rates were generally 1" per hour or less in the areas where heaviest totals fell... thus avoiding significant flooding in LI, S. CT and NYC. N/C. NJ and scattered areas in the lower Hudson Valley were a different story.

NWS Upton finally pulled the trigger on a high wind warning for eastern Suffolk County on LI as well as s. New London County in se CT. Would have been better from public awareness perspective to put up a high wind watch 24+ hours ago IMHO. They mention gusts up to 65 mph for South Fork and 60 mph North Fork and se coastal CT. I think all of Suffolk County (especially near the shores) could see gusts up to ~60 mph, with perhaps locally up to 70 mph on the end of the Twin Forks.

Some additional context on wind damage potential:

Thread on wind damage potential.

18z surface analysis is interesting with more robust low over N. NJ than expected by most guidance:

That's quite impressive, especially so early on in the storm. At least as of yesterday, seems most forecasters/models were not expecting rainfall rates to reach or exceed 2" per hour... as @wdragmentioned, this has the potential to be a higher-impact flooding event than currently signaled by NWS.

For those interested in the potential tropical/subtropical transition of this storm (mainly after it impacts the NE US and moves slowly east across the western Atlantic), worth reading this summary linked below from the NWS about how a hurricane developed in the midst of the large circulation of the Perfect Storm in Oct 1991. Difference here is that the tropical cyclone that developed inside the Perfect Storm quickly moved north into Atlantic Canada and was only a TC for a little over a day (after being subtropical for 12 hours). In our case, the tropical/subtropical system could persist for many days (til at least Nov 4 based on EPS and GEFS, possibly even a few days after that) as it drifts east and remains separated from the westerlies

Long thread offering some thoughts on why the ITCZ and Caribbean activity have been suppressed up until now in Oct... Why some forecasters are convinced the season is over in the Atlantic: ...And how a significant change in the pattern is coming next two weeks that favors better chance of Caribbean activity:

Nice post! There were a lot more October landfalls along the US East Coast from SC northward to New England from the late 1600s to the early 1800s than since 1850. I was able to find at least two that hit the East Coast in Oct and probably originated east of 55W, based on historical accounts: The 1804 "Snow hurricane" that caused severe damage from NJ to New England on Oct 9. Chenoweth who did a reanalysis of 1700-1850 cites this storm as having tracked north of Puerto Rico. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane Further details on damage in the northeast US: https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/HHITProject/HHITyears/1804/1804.htm 1706 tropical storm that tracked from Barbados to NY, with damage from wind and rain reported in NY/CT on Oct 15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century Chenoweth paper: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Chenoweth/chenoweth06.pdf BTW and for entertainment purposes only, the 12z CFS is fixin' to break the record you mentioned. It shows a TS forming on Sep 27 just west of the CV islands and tracking west to a position just NE of the Leeward Islands Oct 2-3, then rounding an anomalously strong W Atl ridge before hitting eastern New England on Oct 7.

Some insights into the lack of US landfalling hurricanes (along with no major hurricane landfalls) between 2006 and 2015, and the recent pronounced increase in US landfalling hurricanes.

Interesting analysis on rainfall potential from Nicholas:

About Nicholas's wobbling... it is likely temporary.