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About eduggs

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    Hudson Valley

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  1. eduggs

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    The long-term temperature trend in winter is clearly increasing. If you plot a relatively short duration dataset that starts with a relatively warm period, you might get a near horizontal trend. But that's a bit of a statistical fluke. Most places are warming in winter and in summer. Of course there are significant fluctuations in this warming and the changes are inhomogeneously distributed spatially. High latitudes and high elevation areas are warming faster than low elevation, mid-latitudes.
  2. eduggs

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Adding about 2 deg F to long-term temperature averages for monthly guesses beats just about all other prediction methods for long-term temp forecasting at most mid latitude locations. For mountainous and urban locations, the additive factor should be higher. For some continental locations that radiate well (important for daily mins), the factor is a little lower. Most forecasters are not scientists. Climatologists can model and predict increases in global average temperatures. But meteorologists cannot predict short-term regional forecast temperatures in the same way. It is well understood that weather does not equal climate. But because warming has been so significant in most locations, adding a constant factor actually does out-predict most regular forecasts in most places (on average). It does not work every month... just over the long term (like 12 consecutive months averaged).
  3. The wind is probably blowing the snow several miles between the time the radar beam hits the snow and when it reaches the ground.
  4. If you have 4 inches on the ground right now you probably had about 6 inches total accumulation considering the moisture content and duration. Bad luck today. Plus or Minus 10 miles can make a big difference sometimes.
  5. Any reports from Putnam County? I'm far far away for this one unfortunately.
  6. It was probably the threshold of melting snowflakes and sleet being pushed eastward as heavier precipitation approached.
  7. I lived decades in the HV without ever seeing snowfall as heavy as many here are seeing now or will see later today. It's funny to hear people worry that there's rain mixed in or a brief lull when the radar is lit up like Christmas. I think a lot of youngsters in the area have been spoiled in recent years by a lot of epic storms.
  8. Excellent moist inflow off the Atlantic right into the area. Radar returns are not expanding rapidly NW as modeled yesterday. That's probably a good thing for eastern and coastal sections and not so good for areas on the western fringe.
  9. The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon.
  10. Pretty sick setup for very intense snowfall rates for potentially any part of the region. It will come down to banding, just like in Feb. 2006. That storm didn't look as impressive as this one in the run up. But mesoscale factors and surface temperatures can sometimes be the difference between a plowable snowfall and an all-time record. It looked like the RGEM was still snowing at the end of its run.
  11. Its seems like the storms with the strongest mid-level winds tend to have weird localized temp gradients. Weaker storms with weak mid-levels tend to have a more typical elevation and latitudinally dependent temperature gradient.
  12. Pretty wild that central Orange county is reporting 37-38F while southern Dutchess at river level is 32 -33F. Even Peekskill on the river in Westchester is 34.
  13. I've seen localized terrain effects like that before in '92, '97, '02 and several others, but never exactly in your area. But I've also spent more time east of the river. It's definitely frustrating! It can change fast though if mid-level wind direction changes.
  14. Montgomery was reporting 36F and light rain at 8am. Looks like some warm air stuck between the escarpment and the hudson highlands. That should mix out in the next few hours as winds back around. Probably some north-south oriented banding setting up.
  15. eduggs

    -NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

    There's a warm layer somewhere between 800-925mb that's being dynamically mixed out... but not everywhere.