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eduggs

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  1. Duration (intensity) was the key to local flash flooding, not so much the totals. The 4-6" that occurred in NEPA through SENY was spread over approx. 12 hours, whereas the majority of the 5-8"+ across EPA, CNJ, NYC metro, and into SCT fell in a 3-5 hr period.
  2. I don't think an assessment of which models performed best is quite so simple. Some were right about the initial bands staying NW but wrong about the quick hitting main show and vice versa. There were different aspects - duration, placement, intensity etc that each model had partly right and partly wrong. I don't think any guidance really nailed the evolution perfectly. And which run(s) do we make the judgement based on? As is often the case, some kind of combination would have worked best.
  3. Large areas of Middlesex, Mercer, and Somerset Counties in NJ have probably received historic 2-hr rainfall totals. 25-yr and even 100-yr rainfall intensities happen pretty regularly throughout the state in individual thunderstorms, but it's less common over such a wide area.
  4. For the metro corridor this evolved into basically a 6-hour heavy rain event with the really huge totals mostly falling within a 2-3 hour period.
  5. Somerset airport in Somerville, NJ unofficially reported 2.83" of rain between 7pm and 8pm, which is impressive. I'm sure there are even heavier backyard hourly totals along the I-95 corridor.
  6. The latest 04z HRRR continues to print out a lot of QPF. Over 0.5" for everybody except Sussex, Orange, an Putnam Counties. Even a few isolated areas near 0.75". Snow near and west of 95 with a sharp cutoff. It looks like a summer squall line. I wonder if some of the QPF could get lost to graupel. If rates are intense as some of the mesomodels indicate, it could get pretty wild tomorrow even into or close to the City.
  7. I think the 6z NAM was a little too far NW with the initial overrunning precip. this morning. And also a little too wet outside a narrow band in extreme SEPA. But the GFS and RGEM look to have been too dry in EPA and CNJ.
  8. The radar looks pretty good for most of the area for the next several hours. Only far northern NJ and interior lower HV look like they will struggle for precip. Central NJ to near Staten Island look best. Could be 6-8 there I think just today. Maybe that gets into NYC and LI. It's hard to know how far north the best rates will get. Also gotta watch the sleet along the southern flank later today.
  9. The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us
  10. I like the call even though it's probably unpopular. Strictly by their guidance the forecast totals fall below warning criteria. And I think it's good to reserve warnings for the biggest events so the public doesn't get numb to them. Hopefully for us snow lovers it proves to be the wrong decision.
  11. Finally catching up on today's model guidance. Can't say it looks all that impressive. The initial overrunning has trended less impressive over time as expected but the upstream trof hasn't sharpened up enough to compensate. There is a risk for northern areas that rates/QPF end up fairly minor. The threat for SE areas is mixing. We'll see how it plays out. I wonder if the inverted trof feature might enhance snowfall for some areas as the SLP pulls away on Fri.
  12. Based on the modeled 850 temps and a likely warm layer above that level, a few tenths are likely lost to sleet overnight Fri for the SE half of the area. I'd call it a 5-8" storm on the UK. Of course final accumulations will always depend on ratios and banding etc.
  13. The concern is real for N and esp NE areas about a possible lack of good rates. The flip side is that ratios should be higher, mixing is minimized, and storms that tap into the Gulf tend to be pretty moist.
  14. The GEFS mean continues to reduce initial overrunning precip (though still healthy) and increase both the total duration and QPF on Fri. The event total is still >0.75" area wide and 1+ NYC and LI.
  15. I see your point. But big snow thumps almost always end as a mix or dryslot, which spoils it a little bit. I know the colored graphics look a little sheared out, but light to moderate snow with temps below freezing might not feel sheared out in reality.
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