eduggs

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  1. The GFS and CMC are a lot closer together now after moving towards each other. A miss to the south or glancing blow seems most likely. But we're not so far off from a decent hit.
  2. I agree. The shortwave responsible for the precipitation in the mid-Atlantic on the 26th is stronger and sharper this run. Precipitation gets further north into the Ohio Valley this run. A few more small changes like that in the mid and upper levels would produce a big change at the surface IMO.
  3. That's interesting. But personally I think, as hobbyists, we would be better off if weeklies did not exist. Year after year they prove to be as misleading as they are predictive.
  4. It's a crap shoot. Perfectly timed shortwaves can produce major storms in any "pattern". And a great "pattern" with a slight wrinkle in the setup can produce zilch. The large scale synoptic features certainly increase or decrease the likelihood of a good winter, but there is also a lot of luck (randomness) involved.
  5. Thanks. That's helpful to visualize the relative likelihoods and typical ranges of each state during this upcoming time of year. It's hard to tell, but it looks like AO-/PNA+ is most common.
  6. Nice plot. Is it also possible to plot the base rate - the AO/PNA scatter diagram for all days?
  7. I like Walt's approach. He doesn't really talk about weeklies, ENSO states, climate indices etc. And he generally does not look past about 10 days. He doesn't seem to talk a lot about "pattern". He just seems laser focused on tangible threats for the local area. Because for us, weather is a very local phenomenon. Apologies to him if I'm misrepresenting him. I just really prefer this approach to the long-range twitter crowd. It keeps hopes and expectations much more realistic.
  8. Yes the models show an active northern stream, and it would be surprising if a southern stream low went north of the Lakes with the current flow regime over the Northern Hemisphere. The point I was trying to make is that if one of the primary models shows a southern stream low moving through the Lakes at day 9, it's probably a valid solution. It doesn't mean it's likely to happen, just that it could happen. No, lows don't drive into blocks. But lows form and move in concert with movement of upper level features. So in this hypothetical scenario, if there's a cutter low, the modeled "block" probably moved or disappeared.
  9. The v16 runs 3 systems through the Lakes over the next 10 days. The northern stream storm track looks to be positioned through southern Canada, so I don't see any reason why it couldn't play out like that. If the model shows a low pressure center in southern Ontario around the 26th, I think we should assume that it could happen. After all, the model physics is built to conform to the boundaries of what is physically possible. It's completely valid to bet or argue against what the v16 is showing. If it's an outlier, we can point to that. But I don't think we can rule out certain outcomes because of our superior understanding of atmospheric physics. I think that is basically just guessing.
  10. The ICON and NAVGEM also show precipitation making it into our area around the 22nd. Both also seem to have trended a little north. I don't know if the NAVGEM has any value for mid-range forecasting in our region, and I've been a little disappointed with the ICON this year particularly beyond 72hrs. But both models do show a less suppressive flow regime than the EC, GFS, CMC trio for late next week.
  11. Good catch regarding the 22nd. The 12z GEFS were noticeably wetter, particularly into the Ohio Valley, than any recent runs. I'd like to see the individuals - there must be a few with a much stronger s/w and maybe some northern stream phasing. The mean even clips southern NJ with the 0.1" contour. The mean is in stark contrast to the operational GFS, ECM, and CMC runs, which completely squash the wave and its associated precipitation. If there is really some room here for a more northward solution (which the 12z GEFS questionably suggest), I'd like to see the GEFS hold strong for a few runs and then eventually the operationals show some movement. Right now they are steadfast in their suppressed look. Otherwise we are stuck always looking deep into the future.
  12. I think we can still salvage some ice skating and fishing weather, even if things don't look snowy for the foreseeable future. Winter isn't all about snow. And all it really takes is about an inch of powder to completely change the wintry feel.
  13. And the CMC follows suit with a boring run. It's been exactly 1 month since we strung 2 good model cycles together in a row. A dreadful stretch.
  14. As usual the GFS is pouring cold water on the situation and stalling our momentum.