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eduggs

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  1. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    4ft of water plus waves can also flip box cars. Not sure there are any relatively low lying rail lines in the high surge zone.
  2. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Near perfectly symmetrical eye! Quite the sight on satellite. There should be some amazing observations in the calm eye. Hopefully everybody stays safe!
  3. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    It had slightly better symmetry an hour or two ago. I don't "wish" for a particular outcome. And I don't care being right because I'm not a forecaster and nobody depends on my analysis. I'm just trying to contribute to the overall objectivity of the forum.
  4. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Symmetry of the CDO. Relative lack of convection NE of the center. Slightly drier air visible on WV imagery wrapping in from land and penetrating the western core. It's just nitpicking a beautiful and powerful hurricane satellite structure. But lots of people wishcast constant RI, and that's not what I see.
  5. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Satellite presentation. Recon lags reality somewhat. And the pressure reading itself may be a lagging statistic. That doesn't mean winds will immediately weaken.
  6. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Michael has probably already peaked. I looks like the worst surge will occur well east of the bay inlet, but there's a ton of water being piled in front of the storm right now. Panama City will still probably experience significant wind damage since it will likely be in or near the northern or western eyewall.
  7. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    CDO symmetry is down a tick and cloud tops in the NE eyewall have warmed slightly in the past 45 minutes. Still looking formidable. Eastward component of movement is also apparent.
  8. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I still think just east of Panama City gets the worst of the onshore winds and surge.
  9. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    This is hyperbole. There have been many others since then. But not so many close to the US coastline.
  10. eduggs

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Yes winds are stronger over open water than over land. Frictional effects reduce surface wind speeds fairly dramatically. The immediate coastline and elevated areas are much more vulnerable. There is a widespread misconception about reported hurricane intensities that the maximum sustained winds are actually representative of the conditions that you are likely to experience. Maximum sustained winds are usually relatively isolated over the ocean. So while it is true that sustained hurricane force winds are uncommon, particularly at inland locations, it is also true that most people don't really how destructive even a 50mph wind can be.
  11. eduggs

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    The long-term temperature trend in winter is clearly increasing. If you plot a relatively short duration dataset that starts with a relatively warm period, you might get a near horizontal trend. But that's a bit of a statistical fluke. Most places are warming in winter and in summer. Of course there are significant fluctuations in this warming and the changes are inhomogeneously distributed spatially. High latitudes and high elevation areas are warming faster than low elevation, mid-latitudes.
  12. eduggs

    Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

    Adding about 2 deg F to long-term temperature averages for monthly guesses beats just about all other prediction methods for long-term temp forecasting at most mid latitude locations. For mountainous and urban locations, the additive factor should be higher. For some continental locations that radiate well (important for daily mins), the factor is a little lower. Most forecasters are not scientists. Climatologists can model and predict increases in global average temperatures. But meteorologists cannot predict short-term regional forecast temperatures in the same way. It is well understood that weather does not equal climate. But because warming has been so significant in most locations, adding a constant factor actually does out-predict most regular forecasts in most places (on average). It does not work every month... just over the long term (like 12 consecutive months averaged).
  13. The wind is probably blowing the snow several miles between the time the radar beam hits the snow and when it reaches the ground.
  14. If you have 4 inches on the ground right now you probably had about 6 inches total accumulation considering the moisture content and duration. Bad luck today. Plus or Minus 10 miles can make a big difference sometimes.
  15. Any reports from Putnam County? I'm far far away for this one unfortunately.
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