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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. The latest 04z HRRR continues to print out a lot of QPF. Over 0.5" for everybody except Sussex, Orange, an Putnam Counties. Even a few isolated areas near 0.75". Snow near and west of 95 with a sharp cutoff. It looks like a summer squall line. I wonder if some of the QPF could get lost to graupel. If rates are intense as some of the mesomodels indicate, it could get pretty wild tomorrow even into or close to the City.
  2. I think the 6z NAM was a little too far NW with the initial overrunning precip. this morning. And also a little too wet outside a narrow band in extreme SEPA. But the GFS and RGEM look to have been too dry in EPA and CNJ.
  3. The radar looks pretty good for most of the area for the next several hours. Only far northern NJ and interior lower HV look like they will struggle for precip. Central NJ to near Staten Island look best. Could be 6-8 there I think just today. Maybe that gets into NYC and LI. It's hard to know how far north the best rates will get. Also gotta watch the sleet along the southern flank later today.
  4. The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us
  5. I like the call even though it's probably unpopular. Strictly by their guidance the forecast totals fall below warning criteria. And I think it's good to reserve warnings for the biggest events so the public doesn't get numb to them. Hopefully for us snow lovers it proves to be the wrong decision.
  6. Finally catching up on today's model guidance. Can't say it looks all that impressive. The initial overrunning has trended less impressive over time as expected but the upstream trof hasn't sharpened up enough to compensate. There is a risk for northern areas that rates/QPF end up fairly minor. The threat for SE areas is mixing. We'll see how it plays out. I wonder if the inverted trof feature might enhance snowfall for some areas as the SLP pulls away on Fri.
  7. Based on the modeled 850 temps and a likely warm layer above that level, a few tenths are likely lost to sleet overnight Fri for the SE half of the area. I'd call it a 5-8" storm on the UK. Of course final accumulations will always depend on ratios and banding etc.
  8. The concern is real for N and esp NE areas about a possible lack of good rates. The flip side is that ratios should be higher, mixing is minimized, and storms that tap into the Gulf tend to be pretty moist.
  9. The GEFS mean continues to reduce initial overrunning precip (though still healthy) and increase both the total duration and QPF on Fri. The event total is still >0.75" area wide and 1+ NYC and LI.
  10. I see your point. But big snow thumps almost always end as a mix or dryslot, which spoils it a little bit. I know the colored graphics look a little sheared out, but light to moderate snow with temps below freezing might not feel sheared out in reality.
  11. Wow the RGEM looks primed to deliver another period of meaningful snow Fri night. Almost as much falls with the 2nd wave as the first for some areas.
  12. The RGEM has snow (at least flurries/light snow) in the area for 50 hours!
  13. This is the 2nd or 3rd best looking threat of the year for most of us. There's no telling how this will play out, but these kinds of events don't come around that often.
  14. I think we are seeing a subtle trend of weakening the initial WAA precipitation in connection with the dampening of the initial shortwave moving through the midwest and Lakes region on Thurs. At the same time we are seeing an increase in precipitation back to the south and west overnight Thurs into Fri as more energy in the trof is left upstream. I think there's a good chance these trends continue. With a moist Gulf of Mexico connection I'm hoping we get the best of both scenarios: light to moderate overrunning snow on Thurs and then lingering light (pos moderate?) snow into the day Friday.
  15. There's a sweet theoretical scenario where we get a period of heavy snow midday Thurs. indicated by fgen charts on the NAM with limited mixing shown on the EC and the longer duration Fri snow of the CMC and now even GFS. There's a wishcast for you. I like the NWS snowfall forecasts where they are now. I think we get at least a few hours of moderate snow on Thursday probably followed by sleet NW and/or ZR/rain SE. I think the longer duration idea is real, but whether or not it amounts to anything and temps are cold enough remains to be seen. Let's see which way it trends.
  16. 30hr + event on the GFS. Possibly not all snow and there could be a few breaks in the precip. Still could be fun.
  17. The trof axis is still west of us on Friday (from 18z GFS), with a bit of a vortmax down near the Gulf coast and a pretty sharp trof. Yes the strongest baroclinicity is already offshore, but with this look we're not so far away from regenerating coastal snow bands throughout much of the day on Friday.
  18. ICON data output isn't compatible with 3rd party vendor ptype algorithms. So ip/zr is shown as rain.
  19. Yes. That's not what I would forecast at this point. I still expect mixing through all of NJ and SENY. But model consensus plus 2 days of trends suggest this could become a mostly snow event. The 500mb height field on tonight's GFS looks nothing like it did two days ago.
  20. The GEFS have significantly improved over the course of the day, generally following the op. The mean now shows mostly snow as the ptype with around 0.75 QPF. That's a big change from recent runs that showed 1-1.5" with the majority rain.
  21. I haven't seen anything shifting north so far with this event. Trends over the past few days have been really positive. This could reverse or continue but I have no feeling about which is more likely. I'll be looking for trends in modeled QPF and forecast soundings from here on out.
  22. The model charts definitely look good and the trends are good. But I STILL think sleet (or eventually ZR) is a risk here to significantly cut down on snowfall. Most guidance gets significant snows into the the Adirondacks and northern VT. As others have noted, when WAA is strong enough to push significant snow that far north, we usually have mixing problems down at our latitude. Even the snowier solutions have sleet very close by in CNJ pretty early in the game. We don't have a lot of margin here. I'd like to see guidance increasingly focus significant snow south of the Albany NY latitude.
  23. I think miller A and B are extremely simplistic labels for a synoptic evolution that can have a wide spectrum of characteristics. Surface pressure is a response to upper level divergence and convergence, air density, topography etc. There can be one max/min point or many. A SLP doesn't move from one place to another like a truck down a highway. It forms, strengthens, weakens, moves, or transfers in response to changes in the upper levels.
  24. All guidance now points to a significant winter weather event for the entire area. The duration now looks like it could extend 24 hours or more. Only the NAM still shows a dryslot moving in early Fri.
  25. v16 looks like mostly snow around and north of NYC.