eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Humility failed. We tried for 8 years. Longer even. If you want, pick an issue and we'll talk about it. We try to do the right thing. Sometimes it works well, sometimes not. The other side will attack us either way - no matter what. Oh and we replaced our aging candidate. The other side did not. And when was the last time Trump admitted a mistake about anything? Sometimes both sides are not equally to blame. There are not always two equally strong argument to an issue. Be fair, and step up.
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Yeah I guess we actually know the answer - tribalism. If we perceive someone to be on our team - in our family - we will defend them and rationalize their bad behavior. While at the same time, someone on a different team is vilified for trivial actions or imaginary behavior.
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Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me. And good observation that the US has had stronger economies during democratic presidencies over the past 40 years.
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Europe has its faults too. There's too much nationalism and cultural pride to allow full cooperation between countries or cultural harmony within ethnically diverse nations. And they love their traditions, which can slow the pace of modernization. We had the chance to be the best of both words here, with our melting pot culture. We could have set the example by observing and adopting the best aspects of other places. Instead we seem intent on wanting to be the worst.
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Might be a longer cycle this time though. They have stacked the deck with the media, the courts, local election officials, restrictive voter laws, intimidation, meddling, foreign interference. And the damage done may take a lot longer to recover from. And this doesn't feel like an oscillation. What was the other side of the pendulum before this? This feels more like a turn; a deviation.
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I'm naturally inclined to agree. But whatever fell early yesterday morning was not good. It did not enhance my enjoyment of the day at all. And we may have more of these ice to rain events coming, which sour the enthusiasm for minor snow events.
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We're not colleagues. And I posted at Bob, but I'm not speaking to Bob. Bob is gone, lost.
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It seems like odds of a 6" event next week have decreased. The "wave" (Tue) with the most favorable thermals has the least upper level support, PVA, frontogenesis etc. It's also weakening over time. Even the relatively wet Euro is mostly just a 3 hr burst with a little light stuff to begin and end. And the waves that follow take on a slightly unfavorable upper level orientation right now.
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0z GEFS is like 1" for the Tue/Wed wave, 2-3" for Thurs, and another 1" for Sat. Quite a drop off for early week. And a good percentage of the precipitation is modeled as non-snow.
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Yup, and there will be a few dozen more before this stretch is over. The center of modeled impact has slowly been shifting towards NE and away from the mid-Atl over the past few days. I was hoping today might be a counter trend, but it looks like that's not the case. To bet against more typical climo and in favor of something highly anomalous, you need overwhelming evidence.
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The GFS recovered a little at the end of the 3rd wave and the CMC had some snow. But 0z was still disappointing. We've steadily lost some of the big QPF #s with great moisture feed out of the Gulf. There is a small pin prick hole in the excitement balloon for next week.
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I've really been enjoying the very highly anomalous (wet) 10-day QPF on the ensemble means paired with mostly below average 850mb temps. We don't see that often. I suspect we start moving away from that now and will have to hedge more towards climo with the big snow mostly in the high terrain of NE. Hope I'm wrong. And we still obviously have a great chance of a least a moderate snowstorm next week in addition to Sunday's potential plowable event.
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The 18z GFS had almost a standing wave jet for 5 days. 0z is more of the typical wave progression with trofs and ridges.
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The trof in the SW is too sharp. Heights rise too much along the east coast. Pushes the boundary slightly too far northwest. CMC is similar.
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Back to back hits at 18z to possibly back to back misses at 0z. Ouch.
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That was the best 10-day GFS run in a long long time IMO. The overall tenor isn't even that unlikely, especially with lower amplitude trofs and modest SLP that are less sensitive to error. But statistics say anything close to this is unlikely considering the standard model error beyond day 5. But wow.
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I thought exactly like this for the past 8 years. I tried to listen, engage, and educate. But sadly I observed that repetitive jokes and insults leveled at "the left" had a normalizing and equalizing effect on politics. The lack of a strong response to most of those trivial, baseless attacks created an unconscious impression in otherwise uninformed voters that there was merit in the critiques. It gave rise to a tangible perception; a gut feeling that there was legitimacy there and that both sides had candidates deserving of consideration on merit. No amount of logic or reason could counter this emotional response. Human beings have a reflexive aversion to people who are bullied. Tragically, they respond positively to aggression and insults. I guess psychologically, nobody wants to be in the group being picked on.
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Damn well said.
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Seconded. The job of moderator is hard. No reason to make it harder.
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Actually, in all seriousness, I think you are right. This is a forum for discussing weather. This should all be deleted. But before that, I would like to encourage all like-minded people to be ready and willing to challenge less-informed people when they advance ignorant political attacks. We should be ready to counter them aggressively... In any and all public forums. We were way too gentle and tolerant last time around. Gloves come off this time.
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I'm hoping that a few have noticed in other threads that I occasionally add to discussions and am not a troll by nature. Maybe that will get me some slack.
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I'm really trying to.
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Bob, ask yourself... have you spent a lot of time outside the US? Do you have a good sense of other places and cultures, their history and political systems? Do you have an intelligent and diverse group of friends who can challenge you? Do you read a diverse selection of news? Or do you listen to political talk radio and watch Fox "news"? Be honest, do you believe you have the right foundation in life to understand and discuss politics?
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About 10% hit us solidly with multiple waves or one really big hit. In most of these cases we ride the boundary in a near ideal location for several days.The rest are one or more moderate hits with partial misses on the rest. I'd love to see the center of the action shift southeastward from NE, but I'm doubtful for now.
