eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Interesting 0z runs so far. CMC, ICON, and GFS with markedly different outcomes, particularly after 132hrs of so. All three appear more threatening to me than 12z or 18z. And the GFS, despite showing mostly rain for coastal areas, is so amplified that it gets sub 546dm 500mb heights to northern Florida. It also develops a slightly negative trof tilt and shifts the 500mb low center a bit further south. Not much help this run on the GFS, but it's workable.
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There are at least 3 shortwaves directly involved with the evolution of the Feb 11 event. The lead wave is a little better on the 18z vs 12z - it's a little further south and squashed. The problem is that the 2nd wave is sharper/stronger, and the end result locally is the same or worse as 12z. If we could combine features from the 12z and 18z, we'd be closer to something wintry IMO. The other tiny positive from 12z is that the 500mb mean on the GEFS is probably slightly more supportive of a coastal low. Trying to maintain a shred of hope for the sake of tracking enthusiasm...
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I'm actually not expecting much of any snow for the rest of this winter outside the interior hills. I think some people forget how early winter typically ends along the coastal plain.
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I feel like we've seen this Feb 11th storm already several times this year. A good soaking with a little convection possible.
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Yup. With the climatological elevational and latitudinal dependence on top of it. But every 5-10 years this interior coastal plain area gets a payoff with a big coastal. We're just in a rough patch right now. I've lived in MA, NY, NJ... and the only 20" storm I've seen was in NJ. But also by far the worst winter.
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Feb 1, 2021 was an excellent storm for northwestern NJ. And for sure the north country has endured some very lean years. The problem for my local region is that was the last decent storm to date. Some of the highest elevations of northern Morris County have had a few 3"+ events since then, but they were very localized.
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The foreseeable future looks like basically more of what we've already seen a lot of this winter. Winter confined to far NE regions, particularly Maine. Spring-like to the SW. 735 days since I've observed moderate snow looks to continue...
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Right now it looks like more of the same for next weekend. SLP into the Lakes inundates the northeast with warmth at all levels. Shortwave energy further south lags behind and dampens leading to weak and late transfer and more of a frontal passage scenario for any trailing impulse. Snow is confined to northern regions, particularly the far NE. Variability of ensembles giving me some pause, but the OP trend looks pretty clear to me. We really needed that initial s/w to hit a wall and get shunted east, pushing the baroclinic zone further southeast. That does not appear to be happening. So unless the follow-up wave digs to the GOM, we're in trouble.
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150hr ensemble means rarely show trofs with negative tilts owing to the blending effect on variable individual members. Trofs will sharpen on the means as you move closer in lead time. SLP will form in the area of strongest upper level divergence. But this region often doesn't match the SLP position of the mean due to the same blending effect.
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8 more weeks of winter in NYC? Annual average March snowfall in NYC is meager. After mid March it's downright uncommon. The immediate urban corridor has about 2 weeks of peak winter climo left - that's it. You can extend that to 4 weeks, including late season climo and maybe 6 weeks of fringe season.
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This sudden obsession with surface temperatures reminds me of weather enthusiast discussions in Europe, particular England. When there's not much else of interest to discuss, this is what happens.
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The event on the 11th looks like a likely east coast winter storm. All three major sets of ensembles have a bit of a different take on the event. I'm not feeling good about it locally. The preceding s/w on Fri really pumps the heights and temps out ahead of the amplifying trof. That continues a seasonal trend of making things very difficult for us as winter weather enthusiasts. We're left hoping for a perfect synoptic evolution. Best threat in a while however.
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Monthly temperature averages are not very useful for local snowfall prediction because storm and temperature evolution are so variable on daily time steps. But the map does support a general continuation of the mean storm track being to our west.
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Nice to see Central Park slant-sticked its way to a local jackpot! Congrats.
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I think NYC has a shot at getting shut out for the whole winter. They'll probably record a coating tonight or even Friday with the arctic front. But otherwise the next 2 weeks look bleak. And after mid-Feb, even normal climo starts to become locally hostile for snow. As bad as it's been in SNE, it's been even worse to the SW.
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I'm going T - coating But I really hope some surprise banding sets up to drop an inch in a few spots. We've got some rare near freezing surface temps and don't wanna waste them.
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Maybe the City finally gets a dusting with the arctic front on Friday.
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We're also 35 years older and feel the cold more. If I were 17 and being active outside in 50 degree weather I'd be wearing a t-shirt too.
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Pretty big jump north on the 0z NAM. But precipitation still doesn't get north of MD. Not surprised to see the NAM make noticeable shifts, particularly after 48 hours. It's more in line with the GFS now. It would take a significant change in timing of the waves to get this much further north. The southern wave has to be further out ahead of the suppressive northern stream. These kinds of miracles don't seem to happen in the modern modeling regime. Credit to model development.
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I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes. Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry.
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0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track.
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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope
eduggs replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gonna have to stay up late. -
The 18z GFS was the first model run I've seen in a while to get a little piece of northern stream energy to a neutral position with respect to the "southern stream" wave. In general, if a wave closer to the equator is downstream (i.e., to the east in N. Hemisphere) of another wave closer to the pole, the longwave trof will amplify. Conversely, if the poleward wave is downstream of the other wave, it will dampen (i.e., suppression). So any shortwave, even a tiny packet of vorticity that gets to a neutral or ideally upstream position with respect to the southern wave will serve to amplify the waves and raise heights downstream. The GFS moved a little bit in this direction for the Thurs-Fri "event", which resulted in some precipitation into the mid-Atl. The 18z RGEM also looks to have moved slightly in this direction with a weak wave over Kansas at 84hr slightly more aligned with the southern stream wave near the TX panhandle. This is longshot territory, but still trackable IMO.
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Weak waves in fast flow are difficult to model. The 0z RGEM might break the snowless streak for NYC, but overall looks very minor. Rest of the period looks suppressed on all guidance.
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Barely better, and not remotely close. The GEFS also lost a few outliers that were bringing precipitation to the northern mid-Atl. and SNE. The mean was a hair better than 12z, however for that time period.
