eduggs

Check 500mb. This is very helpful for visualizing the movement of storms. Surface features like surface highs and lows affect surface parameters like wind and surface temperature. But they don't affect shit aloft. They RESULT FROM upper level features. They get steered by the upper levels, not the other way around.

The warmest layer might not be 850mb. It could be higher up.

Don't assume it can't trend even worse.

The GFS has not been good lately relative to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. I don't trust it at all, especially when it's an outlier. I like the ECM-AI as a model - it's a little less amped than the other 3 so it gives me some encouragement.

Radar shows an impressive line of reflectivity associated with a warm front from KY to SPA pointed straight at us. HRRR says it all dries up before reaching the ground, but I'm still hoping to sneak a few flurries or maybe even a dusting out of it.

Careful locking in a foot Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm?

I feel like I'm one of the few being even keeled. I'm describing the situation as it is - not how I wish it were. It's a legit big snowstorm threat. But there are concerns, particularly with recent trends. It's weather forecast discussion... not a pants tent meme party.

There are several individual ensembles that show less than 6" including some that show a complete miss. There is also still time for modeling to shift much further north or south. We can all see what model consensus is right now. But that doesn't mean we can guarantee a future outcome.

True worst case from 4 days out is almost always 0. A reasonably plausible low low end is probably in the range of 2-4". A baseline target would be 6".

Mixing signals the end of the main show, because once 700mb - 850mb rises above freezing, the WAA is over... lift has moved to our north. The duration before the main show ends has decreased over the past day or two. Mixing is associated with dryslot and a shorter duration of snow, which is why I'm concerned about it.

Yes mixing is clearly a concern now with the upper level support well to our northwest on Sunday. Heights and thickness values are surging during the day on Sunday. The CMC shoots the initial shortwave south of Chicago to near Detroit and Buffalo. Then on Monday the ULL is near Sault Ste. Marie... super amped! The Euro isn't too far off. If that's correct, we'll probably have more mixing issues faster than modeled on Sunday. We may not see it until Fri when the NAM is fully in range. The ski areas of the North Country are starting to look great for a long-duration snow event. That's usually a bad sign. The 500mb chart at 0z Monday would look like a rainstorm if you didn't see the preceding panels. I think we should pump the breaks on the Kuchera and NBM snowfall maps and hope for a flatter trof evolution in subsequent model runs.

I don't mind a little sleet. But with the way the UK, ECM, and CMC are evolving, the duration of overrunning is shortening. The ptype mix is indicating that the best dynamics have shifted north and we get dryslotted. If precip. blossoms thereafter as the hang-back trof approaches and a new surface reflection forms south of LI, then that would change the tenor and mitigate any lull. It could be the difference between a relatively quick hitting 6-10" and a long duration 10-18".

The ECM and CMC show upper 20s at NYC late Sunday night. With flatter solutions a day ago, this was low 20s.

Only if the upper levels as depicted are too amped. If future runs are a little "flatter," the primary will weaken sooner.

The ECMWF is 12-18 hours of snow then light mix/dryslot with possibly some steadier mix or snow at the tail end. That would include a very solid "thump."

Surface features aren't in control. A surface high can't block anything. Surface features, including highs and lows, are the result of the upper levels. Look at this 500mb chart. We're pushing 560dm with a vorticity packet and shortwave headed for the Lakes. That absolutely can send a strong primary to southern Ontario. We're lucky we have a good cold airmass in place, otherwise this would be ice to rain.

With a full phase there's nothing to stop a primary surface low from tracking to southern Ontario. The mid-level lows are well west of us. Several EPS members were even more amped than the 0z ECM OP. On tonight's runs this is starting to look like a supercharged SWFE. I'm really curious if this keeps trending in the same direction or adjusts back in the opposite direction with a less-clean phase. I prefer the longer-duration event where we stay on the cold side even if it means less QPF.

The 0z Euro looks a lot like the UKMET.

The GEFS has a single member that takes a UKMET-like track through NYS. The 12 GEPS has 2. And the 18z EPS has 4 or 5 including a few that are more amped than the UKMET.

30+ hours of wintry precip would be fun. Would be a high impact event. Even better if this turns out to be a little less amped than the 0z UK and we can stay all snow.

Flips back to snow on the UK. Wild solution. Can't completely discard it though. Shift that a little less amped and you have a great long-duration event.

Spectacular moisture feed from the Pacific through the Yucatan and then into the Gulf States. A mini-atmospheric river. That's exactly what we want to see pointing at the cold dome in the northeast!

Love the major snowstorm on the CMC for next Thurs. the 29th - lol!

The RGEM is showing a little snow north of NYC on Wed. night. There is virtually no support... maybe a dusting shown on the NAM3km or a few other mesos... so it's probably not real. But sometimes with cold air in place a surprise minor impulse can produce a quick inch here or there.

On the EPS individuals I count 13 misses and 11 big hits out of 50. The rest are light to significant hits. ~25% miss rate is still pretty high. Still plenty of variability.