eduggs

NAM! Great to see the primary shift south. Sweet run! The sleet is usually north of where 3rd party graphics show it, so the 3km is probably closer to reality with that run. But it's huge to reverse the north/warming trend that it was showing for several runs! And this run introduces more lingering snows into Monday! Also saw last night's ICON - wow. RRFS also shifted south but yikes on the Euro. Could be a big gradient across CNJ or SENY. LFG

Ptype isn't accurately depicted for the Euro on Pivotal. It's a 3rd party vendor issue not a model issue. Most of what is shown as ZR is actually IP.

RGEM and NAM are 10-12 hours of snow before a flip to sleet. There could be a few hours of heavy snow. RGEM begins transitioning in NYC by around 3pm with the NAM a few hours later.

It has actually adjusted steadily north with both primary and secondary lows for several cycles in a row. I see no reason why it won't continue to do so.

That was an unusual event fairly well forecasted at very long lead times. I remember seeing a graphic on CBS or NBC 6 days before the event with the entire east coast highlighted with 1-3 feet written on the screen. I've never seen anything like that since.

I'm not disappointed yet. I'm looking forward to a major event and also holding out hope for even better trends. I don't think the current state of model output is as favorable as the clown maps would indicate. If you blend the synoptics of the Euro, UK, and CMC with the NAM thermals it starts to look uncomfortable. I also think people have short memories when it comes to the many many events where the NAM surged the warm tongue inside 48 hours and dramatically changed the forecast landscape. Heck even December 26th played out like that even though some refused to admit it. People overgeneralize and anthropomorphize things like arctic air and high pressure and think it makes us immune to synoptics. We fail to see and acknowledge obvious things like the trof axis being very far west... which historically favors the interior and New England for the best snows. Fingers crossed for everyone to get buried, but I plan to acknowledge the bad with the good.

It's interesting how being objective and balanced about a snow threat can upset some people so much. Everything has to be positive and rosy and amazing or the sensitive types freak out. Yes I will enjoy whatever snow falls probably more than most people. And the edge I was referring to is the threshold of something historical that gets remembered and mentioned in future years. Yes I do think 6"+ is likely in and around NYC, but 4" is plausible on the low low end if several things trend negatively. Just as 18" is plausible on the high end. Anyone who's followed weather for a while knows nothing is ever guaranteed. 12 hours of snow to sleet to dryslot should be a lot of fun. It's a high impact event. But if we can somehow get north of the dryslot, it could morph into the 24 hour plus event that some models were showing 2 days ago... and that a lot of the online/media hype is based on.

I had looked at the maps that were available at the same. And now that I've looked closely, I can confirm my suspicion that the 18z ECM looks nothing like the GFS and did not meaningfully trend towards it. If anything the shortwave near the MS valley that tracks to Detroit looks a little sharper... but overall it's very similar to 12z in all respects.

I like the AI models a lot for QPF distribution, but they don't resolve vertical temperature well at all so they are likely to significantly underestimate sleet. Just look at the NAM forecast soundings... there is a very pronounced warm layer between 700mb and 850mb. The AI models will not resolve that well. So it's not really correct to say that the models bring a foot to the City when they really only forecast QPF and temperature at a few layers. They don't forecast snow. 3rd party vendors do. And I am discounting the GFS since it has no support and has already shit the bed on several major events this year when it was a notable outlier. A slight shift north from the 18z position on the AI models could move the 4-6" range awfully close to Staten Island/Brooklyn etc.

I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. The GFS is still on its own with jackpot snows from DCA to NYC. If the 18z was better than 12z, it was a minor shift. I haven't seen good images yet of 500mb/700mb/850mb.

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

Except for those no longer under development, every single model is better than it used to be. And compared to 10 years ago they are significantly better than they used to be. Personal feelings otherwise stem from various cognitive biases and being hyper focused on a localized area.

ECM-AI looks great! At worst it's a hold but it looked a hair flatter and colder. It can't resolve warm layers so they'll be more sleet on the southern edge than shown, but I trust its synoptic representation more than the GFS. Clearly a lot more amped than the GFS but it suggests NYC can approach the higher end of the 6-12" as opposed to languishing towards the lower end.

Ugh the UK is back to being really amped at 18z. It's wild how much sharper the trof is on the UK and RGEM compared to GFS especially near OK and MO at only 66 hours.

I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.

That's why I specifically mentioned the northern Dacks and northern VT. My point was that when that area scores, we usually don't and vice versa. It's possible for Mt. Snow and NYC to share a good snowstorm but much less likely with Stowe and NYC.

I'd much rather see the GFS stay south than shift north. You figure maybe its "seeing" something that will foretell a compromise solution down the line. And ya gotta respect it going down with the ship. But it is a shame that it's been an outlier so many times this winter and been wrong pretty much every time.

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

Kuchera.

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

With this kind of high amplitude trof hanging back over the central US on the RGEM there's a chance a surface reflection lingers on Monday and we could score a bit more snow. SNE has a better chance, but we still have a shot to extend this.

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

Nice run from the RRFS as well. 1" liquid all snow for most of our area as precip. lightens up late Sun. with the dryslot. It looked a tick cooler than 12z. The details don't matter that much at this point. But what I think is important is that we stop seeing further north trends. So far with the NAM and RRFS at worst the northern solution appears to have held. If we go much past this point it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the trend at the last minute and we start introducing the possibility of ZR to CNJ and even rain for the S & E coasts of NJ.

Yup, cooled a touch across our area. Pretty solid CNJ north with sleet and dryslot at the end. Very curious if there would be any snow on Monday from that trof back to the west.