eduggs

I feel like the GFS is just torturing us. It's hard to unsee widespread 20" clown maps, which would make 7" of snow/sleet to dryslot while BGM and ALB snows for 30 hrs more annoying. Storm after storm this year the GFS has been an outlier until under 48 hours. If only we had any confidence in the model... but maybe it will do better this time around with more southern stream involvement.

That's why I specifically mentioned the northern Dacks and northern VT. My point was that when that area scores, we usually don't and vice versa. It's possible for Mt. Snow and NYC to share a good snowstorm but much less likely with Stowe and NYC.

I'd much rather see the GFS stay south than shift north. You figure maybe its "seeing" something that will foretell a compromise solution down the line. And ya gotta respect it going down with the ship. But it is a shame that it's been an outlier so many times this winter and been wrong pretty much every time.

I spend a lot of time up there. Northern Adirondacks and Greens north of I-89 have been very snowy. CVT and SVT closer to average. The icon is a better model than the GFS. This isn't 1997. The world has caught up and surpassed us.

Kuchera.

We'll get a piece of this one. But it should have been ours. Shame the north country is weaseling its way to another win. Great winter so far up there.

ICON with a nasty gradient north of NYC. 6" for JFK with 2' in Orange and Putnam.

With this kind of high amplitude trof hanging back over the central US on the RGEM there's a chance a surface reflection lingers on Monday and we could score a bit more snow. SNE has a better chance, but we still have a shot to extend this.

Yikes on the RGEM. Sleet comes in really fast. 12 hours of snow would be great. But that's not a long duration snow event and we're greedy.

Nice run from the RRFS as well. 1" liquid all snow for most of our area as precip. lightens up late Sun. with the dryslot. It looked a tick cooler than 12z. The details don't matter that much at this point. But what I think is important is that we stop seeing further north trends. So far with the NAM and RRFS at worst the northern solution appears to have held. If we go much past this point it becomes increasingly difficult to reverse the trend at the last minute and we start introducing the possibility of ZR to CNJ and even rain for the S & E coasts of NJ.

Yup, cooled a touch across our area. Pretty solid CNJ north with sleet and dryslot at the end. Very curious if there would be any snow on Monday from that trof back to the west.

Just saw the 15z SREF mean 500mb flattened a bit compared to 9z... just probing for good news. They were super amped to start but any shift in a better direction is welcomed.

As shown that's a snow sounding. But in reality when the ECMWF model sounding looks like that, it usually verifies as sleet. Either the model or more likely the 3rd party vendor lack the vertical resolution to properly depict the sounding. That's why the plot looks too linear and granular. Using the NAM as a reference, there's probably a warmer layer in there below 700mb.

They generally don't like to make big changes shift to shift to avoid a windshield wiper effect. Heavier snow to the south reflects the model consensus from a day or two ago. If the further north solutions persist, future maps will gradually reflect that.

Should be interesting model runs later today and especially tonight. We are riding the edge between a significant event and something historic. A small shift either way from this spot will make a huge difference in the feel and impact of the event.

Just a reminder that 850mb is not the warmest layer. The warmest NAM layer (in between 850mb and 700mb) is several degrees C warmer than 850mb.

Sleet walks are much less enjoyable than snow walks.

I'll be following the ECM-AI closely too. Anecdotally it's done great this year. That and the NAM for how far north mixing gets. The AIs plus CMC are pretty amped - it looks like that's where we're headed. The GFS is heavily discounted in my mind.

Sure everybody would enjoy a 6"+ thump on Sunday. But it's much more enjoyable if you don't have to sweat the pending sleet. The hypervigilance for the tell-tale signs of change over distracts from the experience.

Yeah the ratio thing is silly. But I still think a 12+ solution in possible. The 6z ECM/ECM-AI looked solid. Same with the 12z RGEM. We just have to hope for a flatter shortwave across the mid-south and mid-west in the run up.

This is the concern right here. The Delmarva, SNJ, CVA up to DCA were progged for 12+ for days (still might get it). But the NAM warms the mid-levels so fast that the duration of snow is too short lived for major (6+) accumulations. If this keeps trending in the same direction, we are at risk for a similar fate. It has happened many times in the past and often in hindsight people say it was obvious with a trof axis so far west. Fortunately the NAM is also sometimes too amped at this range. But it should not be completely dismissed.

What's wrong with describing what the model shows?

Disagree about the NAM. Look at this shortwave over OK at 72hr. Takes it straight to Chicago. That's sharper than 6z. Will take a primary and pronounced mid-level lows to WPA and then NYS. No way to block that mid-level warming Sunday afternoon with that upper level setup. Other guidance is less sharp... but NAM is good at this. Let's hope it's still beyond its accurate range.

God the NAM is super amped. 12z even moreso than 6z. That would end up as a lot of sleet - ZR even towards the end. Pray it's wrong. ECM, ECM-AI, and GFS looked solid overnight however.

Everybody knows wet means high QPF. Especially in this context. Not literally rain.