eduggs

That's a sad look for Sunday night. Mid-levels too far NW resulting in a persistent primary low and no lift for our area.

It would be interesting if DCA outdid PHL, NYC, and BOS in terms of snowfall due to a stronger and longer initial overrunning. I doubt it mostly because of likely better ratios up north and possibly some tack-on snow at the end. But I guess it's possible.

The Euro is also faster to move out than the UK, ICON, and GFS. 12 hours of snow plus or minus and then dryslot/light stuff. Most of the steady precip. is done by 0z Sunday on the Euro.

Euro looks wet and warm. No major reversal to the north/amped trend but still a major event.

It's more amped. Powerfreak gets crushed up at Stowe. That's usually not great for our area.

This is the kind of NAM sounding that makes me nervous about sleet on Sunday. It's valid at 12z Sunday morning about 50 miles NW of Richmond, VA. Super cold surface & 850mb temps with 700mb temps -2C or -3C and the ptype is SLEET because of a pronounced warm layer near 750mb. The surface high can't save us from that. If the upper levels are amped and the mid-level lows which will track to our west are slow to weaken, our sounding could end up looking like that on Sunday afternoon/evening. That would be a bummer considering the depth of saturation through that column... would be a lot of QPF wasted as sleet.

3 out of 30 GEFS members develop a significant and deepening coastal SLP on Monday between NJ and LI (like the 0z ICON) and extend precipitation into early Tue.

Love the mounting evidence for a 1"+ liquid event. That's big dog stuff.

FWIW, I'm seeing about 1.3" for the UK and 1.1" for the GFS on Pivotal

With that prolonged easterly fetch some of the spots in SENJ and EMA that are favored for ocean enhancement could approach 2" liquid - a lot of which could be frozen. Great to see both the ICON and UK well over 1" liquid across most of our area.

The UKIE is ICON-esque! Maybe a tick warmer than the ICON but better than 12z IMO. Threatens a mix/dryslot or at least lull, but redevelops on Monday! Sweet run!

Through 18z Sat the UK is a little flatter than 12z. Still amped but a tick less. I'd prefer small run-to-run changes anyway, especially if they are in the right direction.

It's actually one of the best global models in the world. The only clearly superior model in terms of verification is the ECMWF.

I feel like the CMC has been doing better than the GFS this year. It's purely anecdotal but I don't trust the GFS at all.

In Europe, the ICON is considered a superior model to the GFS particularly out to 72 hours and across mid-latitudes. The GFS does not have the dominant perch amongst global models that it used to have.

The 0z RGEM is also a tick less amped than 18z but still pretty amped.

FWIW, the 0z NAM matches up pretty well with the 12z CMC at 500mb. But it also ticked a little less amped the past 2 runs.

The 0z ICON is a dream run for pretty much our entire forum - CNJ north. There is a precip. lull Sunday night but it redevelops on Monday and stays mostly snow. I said after 18z that a slight shift south would produce an excellent long duration event and that's exactly what the model shows. Very widespread heavy snow event for most of the northeast, which is uncommon!

The 18z ICON is relatively warm and amped, but it also shows a pathway to really big totals and a longer duration event. With a full phase there is a sharp trof back to the west Sunday night. This partly captures the surface low over the Atlantic and induces another round of precipitation in EPA, NJ, SENY, and SNE on Monday after nearly dryslotting late Sunday. Notice the 18z ICON isn't done snowing at 120hrs. It shows a nearly stalled and intensifying 995mb low just off NY Harbor with light to moderate snow throughout the area. A few model runs (and several individual ensemble members) have blown up this coastal low adding several tenths of QPF on Monday. Shift the ICON slightly south with the overrunning and you have a very significant and long duration event.

Check 500mb. This is very helpful for visualizing the movement of storms. Surface features like surface highs and lows affect surface parameters like wind and surface temperature. But they don't affect shit aloft. They RESULT FROM upper level features. They get steered by the upper levels, not the other way around.

The warmest layer might not be 850mb. It could be higher up.

Don't assume it can't trend even worse.

The GFS has not been good lately relative to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET. I don't trust it at all, especially when it's an outlier. I like the ECM-AI as a model - it's a little less amped than the other 3 so it gives me some encouragement.

Radar shows an impressive line of reflectivity associated with a warm front from KY to SPA pointed straight at us. HRRR says it all dries up before reaching the ground, but I'm still hoping to sneak a few flurries or maybe even a dusting out of it.

Careful locking in a foot Imagine how you would feel looking out the window at a dryslot and 5" of snow as BGM and ALB sail past 18" on their way to 24". Think you would feel good about your major snowstorm?