eduggs

I'm still very skeptical of this. We're getting a few hits here and then on the odd model run or individual ensemble member. But the CMC and EC are largely unsupportive right now. When there's precipitation temperatures look marginal, especially for urban areas. As soon as it's cold enough it may be hard to get precipitation to our latitude until after the height field resets. Then it's likely back to cutter city.

The problem is looking beyond 7-10 days. Obviously small initial variations will lead to large model differences at that range.

Summerlike dew points. Outside shot of someone hitting 60?

I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality.

Nailed it

Well anybody forecasting regionally specific weather 10+ days out will either be wrong or lucky.

Tough winter so far for the long-range "pattern" sniffers. The 7-10 day period feels like either a Maine or Carolinas jackpot situation. It's hard to see how we thread the needle based on where things stand now. The cold-side snow zones look narrow. Roll the dice and see how it plays out.

It's probably about right. Something like 41/26 with a 36F wet bulb.

One cold day - December 24 - is basically keeping us out of 2nd place.

Not happening. NYC and surrounding suburbs are destined for their 17th consecutive winter rain event without any measurable snowfall by the end of this run.

Stop looking at clown maps. And ask someone who knows what they are talking about. Modeling has been excellent this year. Noticeably better than even 5 years ago. I've been tracking for 30 years and the steady improvements have been noteworthy. 3rd party vendor clown maps, which don't reflect raw model data, exaggerate surface weather and run to run changes. Upper level features are what should be focused on. And this year, mid-range models have time and time again correctly locked onto a particular upper level setup in the 5-7 day range and generally made only minor adjustments thereafter. Consider how few fake fantasy snowstorms we've had inside 168 hours. That was always a feature of previous seasons.

Nothing of interest for as far as the models can reasonably see for the 55th day in a row or something like that. I vaguely remember some threats of interest in late November. The mid-range modeling has been really good. Unfortunately that has meant really boring tracking.

Obviously surface weather will have huge run to run variability at 200hr. What do you expect? The mid-range models have had an excellent season overall. For the most part there have been very few major head fakes to get our hopes up inside of 5 days. Models have been pretty much locked in after settling onto an outcome in the 5-7 day range. Unfortunately they have correctly locked in on rain storms. Meteorological modeling has improved tremendously over the past 3 decades... and it continues to improve further.

More 50s than 20s during peak-winter. So so weird. That's deep south stuff.

Haven't had anything in northern NJ either, outside the far NW hills. Zippo. Actually it's been 2 years of futility locally. So I/we commiserate.

NAM had it. Especially apparent on the 3km. Congrats. The snow you're seen in the past hour is more than a lot of us to your southwest have seen all winter. We are enjoying it vicariously.

The 12z EC looks most promising for Wed. I has a fortuitously timed slug of overrunning snows before mid-levels become unsupportive. Even with that, the 10 day grand total clown map for NYC shows 2.1" with 10:1... so really a coating to an inch considering surface temps. Just brutal. Peak climo.

Fair enough. I guess I usually think in terms of regional forums or even network TV viewing areas. Within our forum, I consider the Hudson highlands and NNJ ridgelines to be the elevated N&W. Maybe the Poconos to Shawangunk Ridge to southern Taconics could be considered part of that, as the far N&W.

I don't consider the Catskills to be part of the NYC area. Yes the Catskills are N&W, but so are the Adirondacks. I was referring to more like Sussex County NJ or Orange and Putnam, NY. This storm looks to be for Wayne, Pike Cos. PA to Sullivan, Ulster, Greene, Columbia Cos. NY, to the Taconics and Berks etc... Dutchess could have a significant gradient I think... with a 0-2" low along the Beacon waterfront to a max somewhere along the NE corner in the Taconics.

Glimmer of hope yesterday and then it's all gone to shit today. Maybe elevated far N&W get a little front- and backside love like Walt describes. Could even be some wet snowflakes mixing in to the coast tomorrow at the end. Basically April. And no excitement for a cutter with a SLP to Ottawa and rain to Canada. Nothing of note in the pipeline until fantasy land. The long range looks slightly different than it's been but not particularly favorable. It's too far out to take seriously anyway. Low point of the winter for me morale-wise. We can almost see the end now.

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

The system has been sharpening up slightly early on, and shifting the R/S line in the mid-Atl. NW... then flattening later on to benefit NE. The cause appears to be increasingly disjointed waves/ areas of vorticity. Overall tendency is a weaker storm with energy hanging back. More snow for places that have been receiving a little of it lately.

That's already happened numerous times since late Nov. in the long range. All models have been biased too cold in the east and too warm in the west. Until cold gets inside of 7 days on multiple models for a few runs in a row, I will doubt it.

Daytime highs, nighttime (high) lows, days with rain, total rain all probably near winter-to-date records. Coastal plane snowfall throughout the area near record lows. I see no reason to expect that to chance anytime soon. The same features keep popping up around 7 days out and then basically holding. Still hoping for positive changes though.

Overall I think most short and mid-range models have done a great job this winter. Obviously they are all suspicious out at the end of their ranges. But inter-model agreement and run to run consistency has been relatively high IMO this winter. Few big head fakes. The problems have been people taking 10+ day charts and running with them.