eduggs

Maybe not in Manhattan. But there were two icing events in the past week just outside of the concrete jungle. The upcoming "pattern" produces overrunning waves. That means mid-level warm layers and a ZR risk. The southwest mid-level flow and lack of strong SLP just make it harder to get heavy precipitation and a snow-supporting column together at the same time for more than a few hours.

Yup. We have to hope we cash in over the next 10 days. Long range stuff is just wishing and dreaming.

I'm not the slightest bit interested in the MJO index when we have multiple trackable snow threats in the mid range. With this setup, right now, if you tweak the shortwave progression and evolution, you get multiple significant snowstorms. Snow doesn't give a fck what the MJO is.

Calm down. It's just a temporary break from your regularly scheduled (mindless) programming. Are you referring to me as a kook, or someone else? What have I said this is kooky?

12z was bad (GFS, CMC, ECM) No sugarcoating. Way too much rain through the extended. Ensembles are narrowing the spread and shrinking the snow means. Enjoy Sunday if you can.

I would kind of like this to be an active place for locals to carry out essential political discussion. But I'm personally likely to move onto other things soon. And there is little sustained interest in this kind of thing. Most people use twittergram or whatever anyway. You can breath easy... the banter thread will live on as normal.

"Disrespect" is subjective. The moderators have ruled (against my recommendation) that they will allow these discussions here. I tend to think it is necessary to address these issues in all public forums.

Pretty strong agreement among the GEFS members that Tue is a light/fringe event south and Thursday is a warm - mostly liquid event. Fortunately the members tend to cluster fairly reliably around the operational run.

I would pay money to never have to accidentally glance at a 300+hr anomaly chart.

I had really hoped we would be in a stronger position at this point. Instead we face a succession of very tenuous threats. Lots of failure modes here. Yes there are still several legit snow threats. But right now the only strong chance for 6"+ is the far northern suburbs on Sunday.

Honestly, your great, great grandchildren will still feel the shame and embarrassment of your having supported DJ Trump. I bet even just conversations in this forum will survive as record and proof. It's not about democrat vs republican, liberal vs conservative. It's not about policy. It's about basic human decency. It's about believing in building something for the collective good vs. destroying what we've built for the sake of an everyone-for-themselves world. People have to decide for themselves to leave the cult.

You had a random list of vague topics. Each of which would require details, complexity, and nuance in the response. But we're happy to discuss any topic that you want. But be specific. No person or team is 100% perfect. But we have a very very clear distinction here. Both sides are not "equally bad." I can list dozens of obvious flaws on one side. Serious, meaningful, impactful stuff. And you counter with relatively trivial stuff. That's not balanced.

This shit is serious.

12z CMC and GFS... nice runs for southern VT!

Of course it could be sooner. Most experts believe it will be. I agree with your points. But I was trying not to be alarmist. The point is that it is a real and present threat. We had a plan for how to respond. Now we mostly don't.

Agreed. OKX issued for 3-5" of snow plus a glaze of ice. That's borderline for this area, but not egregious IMO. That office has been cautious this week.

If people were so upset about Biden and school closures, why didn't they just vote for Nikki Haley? I can surely see how those concerns are right up there with health care, child care, elderly care, college education costs etc. Great people.

N&W brings up COVID, a good example topic. Trump supporters fundamentally misunderstand the potential threat of a global pandemic. Eventually (probably within the next 500 years) there will be a global pandemic (possibly respiratory virus) that will devastate global civilization and kill 10-50% of the population. This is something that scientists have been studying and planning for. COVID was that kind of threat. A contagious respiratory virus can quickly overwhelm hospitals. Then you have people dying in the waiting rooms, in the hallways, then in the parking lots. And the health care system can no longer provide care to anybody. No rescue for accident victims, heart attacks, no care for pregnancies or any other emergencies, no painkillers, no medicines. Grocery stores shut down, transportation networks, police, utility stations... everything collapses. And quickly. COVID progressed pretty far down this path in parts of Italy and China (early 2020). It was a pretty close call in many other places, including NYC. How do we humbly educate people about the very real risks of a global pandemic... people who have been encouraged to mistrust scientists, who don't understand complexity or nuance, who are hyper focused on their own little bubbles? How do we explain to them that minor inconveniences like masks, vaccines, and even school closures are essential tools to defend against civilization collapse in the face of a global pandemic? I thought we did a great job explaining and encouraging and teaching. End result of that effort, they think Fauci is some kind of monster. Sigh. Good thing we had Trump insisting for all of February 2020 that COVID would be gone in a few weeks and then musing about drinking bleach.

The abbreviated list is only a subset. And it does not include all the disastrous policy initiatives and political appointments he has made. All of the destructive tweets and speeches that have undermined faith in the bedrocks of our democracy. Oh but, but but... democrats tried to minimize the significance of Biden's signs of aging because they didn't want Trump to win the election. See, they suck too.

What we know about Trump: - Advisors say he can't grasp details in meetings - needs simple summaries or a picture - Age = 78 years (shows evidence of fatigue and senility) - Credibly accused of revealing classified secrets - An obvious national security risk - Maintains an obvious conflict of interest between Presidency and business interest - champion of nepotism and cronyism - Plausibly accused of money laundering - Plausibly accused of financial fraud (and many other crimes that I won't list) - Convicted of (felony) falsification of business records (to cheat the American voting public) - Found liable for sexual abuse in civil trial - Plausibly accused of rape by several women - Slept with numerous prostitutes - Encouraged a riot at the US Capitol - Encouraged violence against women, immigrants, judges, and political enemies

Wait so humility is what wins elections? Admitting mistakes? Acknowledging the other side has legitimate arguments and their ignorance and delusions fueled by hate mongering should actually be coddled? Hmmmm, tell that to Jimmy Carter, Hillary Clinton, and Al Gore. DJ Trump won 2 elections. He exhibited none of the qualities you are espousing. Coordinated hate mongering against liberals for 30 years (TV, radio) has only accelerated with social media. No amount of humble discussion will ever be able to undo that. You are incredibly naive if you think our messaging is the problem.

Humility failed. We tried for 8 years. Longer even. If you want, pick an issue and we'll talk about it. We try to do the right thing. Sometimes it works well, sometimes not. The other side will attack us either way - no matter what. Oh and we replaced our aging candidate. The other side did not. And when was the last time Trump admitted a mistake about anything? Sometimes both sides are not equally to blame. There are not always two equally strong argument to an issue. Be fair, and step up.

Yeah I guess we actually know the answer - tribalism. If we perceive someone to be on our team - in our family - we will defend them and rationalize their bad behavior. While at the same time, someone on a different team is vilified for trivial actions or imaginary behavior.

Yes we've swung from republican presidents to democratic and back again. But all of them before Trump genuinely tried to be President of the people. They had our interests in mind even if their policies were sometimes misguided. They respected our history and our institutions. How someone cannot see that Trump is a career con man who cares only about himself completely baffles me. And good observation that the US has had stronger economies during democratic presidencies over the past 40 years.

Europe has its faults too. There's too much nationalism and cultural pride to allow full cooperation between countries or cultural harmony within ethnically diverse nations. And they love their traditions, which can slow the pace of modernization. We had the chance to be the best of both words here, with our melting pot culture. We could have set the example by observing and adopting the best aspects of other places. Instead we seem intent on wanting to be the worst.