ATDoel

No, why would you want a 15' raised slab? Build the house on piers, leave the slab on grade. You can install break away walls on the ground floor so the house will "look" fairly normal and you'll even have some usable space down there. Keep all the main parts of the house on the 2nd floor on top of the first floor assembly and you're good to go. Surge comes in, your walls break away around your garage, damage is minimal, house survives. Easy, it just cost a bit more to build this way and you become more limited in your architecture.

absolutely incorrect. You can build homes that are essentially surge proof. You sink reinforced concrete piers into the bedrock, raise the first floor above the surge zone, and install break away walls on the ground level. As long as you keep your utilities above the surge zone, even a catastrophic flood would do minimal damage to a house built this way. What you can't do is build a normal slab on grade home and expect it to survive storm surge.

Ian has put its foot down, landfall looks like it'll be within the hour just north of Charleston.

building codes absolutely work. You can always sink piers deeper and raise the first floor higher if you're trying to keep a building safe from storm surge. You can always reinforce roofs and walls so they can withstand cat 5 winds. It just takes more money, but really not THAT much more. I do firmly believe that any building in a surge prone area should have to be self insured though.

This is my biggest problem with the way the NHC/MEDIA informs the public on hurricanes. You always hear "forecasted to make landfall at xxxx location at xxxx wind speed". People don't have the patience or understanding to look at the cone or listen to a forecast discussion about possible strengthening beyond the forecast intensity. I would much rather the forecast to be simply to read out the locations within the cone of uncertainty, and to give percentages on possible strength at landfall. If they know they can't predict the exact landfall location and strength at landfall, they need to stop telling people that information like they can.

what's the best way to see if it's warm or cold core? I know the models have a phase diagram that will tell you, but is there empirical data you can look at?

Is Ian still technically a tropical cyclone at this point? Definitely looks extratropical.

population control, I'm all for it

Low tide was midnight, hightide is 6 pm, we're closer to hightide than lowtide. The difference here isn't much though, like a foot and a half

his live feed went dead after he broke into someone's house on the ocean.... he might be dead

new recon has just reached Ian's CDO, we should be getting an eye penetration in the next 30 minutes or so

that doesn't mention any type of official landfall

You can see the crazy mesovortices bouncing around inside the eye on visible, that must be what they're talking about hitting in the eye.

The brown ocean effect won't save Ian from all that dry air that it's going to wrap into its circulation later today. We should actually see Ian weaken faster than normal when compared to other landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

any other live streams out there?

Am I reading the NHC recon plan correctly, there's a three hour gap in recon right now? I remember when Michael made landfall, they were buzzing around the entire eyewall for hours, why would they have a big gap in recon for Ian?

I have no problem with what they're doing, this is a free country. I would have a problem if the coast guard was called to save them though. If they drown, they drown, they knew the risk.

It really is, there's a lot of video footage to be found of storm surge with some of the strong typhoons that comes in exactly like a tsunami. The backside of an eyewall can push a tremendous storm surge on these intense storms. There is no "safe side" in Ian's eyewall.

EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast. They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete. Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling. Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself. Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow.

crap, that sucks! I saw it was labeled low level recon.

apparently this is the place to discuss the hurricane hunter aircraft, why did the most recent recon turn around?

use the radar for tracking at this point, it's going to be more accurate than the satellite loop. Definitely moving NNE.

So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference? The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting.

When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s? Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading? The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close. Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?

Usually it's a sign of RI