ATDoel
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Everything posted by ATDoel
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that doesn't mention any type of official landfall
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You can see the crazy mesovortices bouncing around inside the eye on visible, that must be what they're talking about hitting in the eye.
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The brown ocean effect won't save Ian from all that dry air that it's going to wrap into its circulation later today. We should actually see Ian weaken faster than normal when compared to other landfalling hurricanes in Florida.
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any other live streams out there?
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Am I reading the NHC recon plan correctly, there's a three hour gap in recon right now? I remember when Michael made landfall, they were buzzing around the entire eyewall for hours, why would they have a big gap in recon for Ian?
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I have no problem with what they're doing, this is a free country. I would have a problem if the coast guard was called to save them though. If they drown, they drown, they knew the risk.
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It really is, there's a lot of video footage to be found of storm surge with some of the strong typhoons that comes in exactly like a tsunami. The backside of an eyewall can push a tremendous storm surge on these intense storms. There is no "safe side" in Ian's eyewall.
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EWRCs are probably one of the hardest aspects of tropical cyclones to forecast. They can take a full day, half a day, or a few hours to complete. Sometimes they start and never get completed, and the core gets exposed to dry air and starts unraveling. Sometimes they start and never get completed, with the original eyewall reestablishing itself. Just too early to have any idea how this one is going to change the landfall intensity tomorrow.
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crap, that sucks! I saw it was labeled low level recon.
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apparently this is the place to discuss the hurricane hunter aircraft, why did the most recent recon turn around?
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use the radar for tracking at this point, it's going to be more accurate than the satellite loop. Definitely moving NNE.
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So I remember hearing that the HWRF and GFS pull from a lot of the same data when it comes to the track of storms, yet we have the HWRF showing an apocalyptic Tampa strike and the GFS is around Sarasota, why the difference? The HWRF also has a significantly stronger storm, which also looks more realistic than what the GFS initialized at and is forecasting.
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When's the last time you saw a storm with a stadium eye with a pressure in the 960s? Do you know what's causing this high pressure reading? The eye structure is significantly better than it was when it was "Stronger", it isn't even close. Maybe the mountain range in west Cuba is causing the weird reading?
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Usually it's a sign of RI
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This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me. ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much? ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop.
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This is not true. With all other things being equal, once a storm starts to weaken, the surge potential starts going down. Those waves need energy (wind) to continue to push it, as soon as that energy is reduced, the amount of water being pushed by it starts to get reduced as well. What you're saying would only be true in a vacuum.
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I'm curious why everyone thinks Ian is less organized today than yesterday. Recon found an actual defined low level center which wasn't present yesterday so the structure is significantly better than it was. All the convection in the world doesn't mean anything if the structure isn't there to deepen.
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I wouldn't be surprised if this LLC is getting ejected and we'll see a new one form to the west
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Several tornadoes in Alabama today, had one pass right over my house and touchdown 5 miles away. I mean it’s this or an inch of snow in NC somewhere, beggars can’t be choosers lol
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I'm in central Al. and we were hit by a long track EF3 in the last March outbreak with EF2 damage at our house. We were lucky with minor damage, two houses down lost everything. I'll tell you this, just having a basement isn't enough. They had a CMU daylight basement and the tornado ripped it in half, only EF2 damage... We're building a new house now and we're putting in a tornado room. Reinforced concrete walls and ceiling, that's the only way to really protect yourself from a direct hit.
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Discussion from SPC on tomorrow's event and why they upgraded to enhance. "with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes."
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Are threads allowed here this time of year that aren't winter storms impacting the Carolinas? Ok, cool. Models have been picking up on this system for several days now with unusually high agreement, showing severe weather over three days impacting Texas to the Carolinas. I guess that's why the SPC has issued a 15% risk a whole week out, don't see that very often.
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holy model divergence. I assume the HRR is far more likely here, why is the NAM showing such a high level event?
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I know most of Central Alabama is out of the enhanced area, but something about this graphic makes me feel like we're about to get screwed again.... but seriously, I still have tornado debris in my front yard waiting to be picked up, I wouldn't mind if the other states took this one for us this one time.
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Do they even classify tornadoes as EF4+ if there is no structural damage of that magnitude? Very likely it was that strong in the wooded, unpopulated areas.
