ATDoel
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Everything posted by ATDoel
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This last dropsonde doesn't make any sense to me. ADT readings and T numbers show significant strengthening of Ian since it made landfall in Cuba, the storm looks tighter and more organized on satellite as well, how in the world did it weaken so much? ADT is estimate 937 mb, that's a 30 mb difference from the drop.
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This is not true. With all other things being equal, once a storm starts to weaken, the surge potential starts going down. Those waves need energy (wind) to continue to push it, as soon as that energy is reduced, the amount of water being pushed by it starts to get reduced as well. What you're saying would only be true in a vacuum.
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I'm curious why everyone thinks Ian is less organized today than yesterday. Recon found an actual defined low level center which wasn't present yesterday so the structure is significantly better than it was. All the convection in the world doesn't mean anything if the structure isn't there to deepen.
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I wouldn't be surprised if this LLC is getting ejected and we'll see a new one form to the west
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Several tornadoes in Alabama today, had one pass right over my house and touchdown 5 miles away. I mean it’s this or an inch of snow in NC somewhere, beggars can’t be choosers lol
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I'm in central Al. and we were hit by a long track EF3 in the last March outbreak with EF2 damage at our house. We were lucky with minor damage, two houses down lost everything. I'll tell you this, just having a basement isn't enough. They had a CMU daylight basement and the tornado ripped it in half, only EF2 damage... We're building a new house now and we're putting in a tornado room. Reinforced concrete walls and ceiling, that's the only way to really protect yourself from a direct hit.
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Discussion from SPC on tomorrow's event and why they upgraded to enhance. "with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes."
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Are threads allowed here this time of year that aren't winter storms impacting the Carolinas? Ok, cool. Models have been picking up on this system for several days now with unusually high agreement, showing severe weather over three days impacting Texas to the Carolinas. I guess that's why the SPC has issued a 15% risk a whole week out, don't see that very often.
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holy model divergence. I assume the HRR is far more likely here, why is the NAM showing such a high level event?
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I know most of Central Alabama is out of the enhanced area, but something about this graphic makes me feel like we're about to get screwed again.... but seriously, I still have tornado debris in my front yard waiting to be picked up, I wouldn't mind if the other states took this one for us this one time.
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Do they even classify tornadoes as EF4+ if there is no structural damage of that magnitude? Very likely it was that strong in the wooded, unpopulated areas.
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It made up for windspeed by being huge, 1.3 miles wide according to BMX. Crazy.
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EF2 but still preliminary, they haven't surveyed the entire track yet. I would guess today or tomorrow.
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Bmx were sleeping on that Clanton cell, not done in Bama yet :/
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My neighborhood got hit hard, only minor damage to my house, one house down from me lost their roof, two houses down from their lost their entire first floor. Pelham
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I took my family and drove north, TDS went right over our house in Pelham
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storm has strong broad rotation, could drop another tornado in a matter of minutes, definitely have to watch it.
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all those shallow storms south of the tornado, could that be choking off inflow?
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That's horrible, that takes it right over the southern Bham metros, the most densely populated part of the state
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shhhhh I'm over here on the Pelham/Hoover line nervously taping my foot
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nah, that's the Mecedes Benz automotive plant. It's a huge complex, they even have a dedicated exit from the interstate
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.............
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whelp.....I'm directly in the bullseye of the only tornado warned storm right now, 50 miles away. Let's hope it isn't as long tracked as we think..... I may just get in my car and hit the interstate if this thing doesn't lift before getting here.
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Where are you getting that? and here I was happy to simply not be in the HIGH Risk this go around...
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Seeing strong broad rotation on those cells west of Birmingham
