ATDoel

It made up for windspeed by being huge, 1.3 miles wide according to BMX. Crazy.

EF2 but still preliminary, they haven't surveyed the entire track yet. I would guess today or tomorrow.

Bmx were sleeping on that Clanton cell, not done in Bama yet :/

My neighborhood got hit hard, only minor damage to my house, one house down from me lost their roof, two houses down from their lost their entire first floor. Pelham

I took my family and drove north, TDS went right over our house in Pelham

storm has strong broad rotation, could drop another tornado in a matter of minutes, definitely have to watch it.

all those shallow storms south of the tornado, could that be choking off inflow?

That's horrible, that takes it right over the southern Bham metros, the most densely populated part of the state

shhhhh I'm over here on the Pelham/Hoover line nervously taping my foot

nah, that's the Mecedes Benz automotive plant. It's a huge complex, they even have a dedicated exit from the interstate

.............

whelp.....I'm directly in the bullseye of the only tornado warned storm right now, 50 miles away. Let's hope it isn't as long tracked as we think..... I may just get in my car and hit the interstate if this thing doesn't lift before getting here.

Where are you getting that? and here I was happy to simply not be in the HIGH Risk this go around...

Seeing strong broad rotation on those cells west of Birmingham

I have a feeling I know why he got banned....

main action is supposed to be well to our west, where it's clearing out. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw less action this week than last week in central Al. but the area to our west is virtually guaranteed to see a lot more.

We get plenty here too, doesn't change anything when we get a violent one through one of the metros, still a catastrophe

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now. For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much. His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

This is probably a dumb question, but it looks like the lack of cap, forecasted for this event, also caused a lot of the junk convection last week, which prohibited super cells from really getting started and why we "only" had 20 something odd EF2s and weaker tornadoes. Unless I'm mistaken, this forecast has higher amounts of shear, moisture, cape, etc. Even if we get a bunch of junk convection again this go around, is it not fairly logical to think that there's a good chance we have a similar outbreak as last week except, well, with more and stronger... everything?

JPeters earlier mentioned a pocket of warm dry air at around 850mb inhibiting convective growth, looks like it's still there on the 18z.

and intense refers to EF+3? Very confusing, especially since last week their hatched area indicated a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado.

what I'm more interested in is how often the word "violent" is used in the 1730z d2 outlook that didn't precede an outbreak with at least one ef3+. I thought for sure they did last week, but it looks like they used the terms "strong" and "intense" instead. I have to wonder if they're just using those terms interchangeably with violent or if their word use really is that specific.

I see... so the HRR showing deep moisture all the way up to 800mb is a significant difference than the NAM showing dry air starting at around 900mb. So is this one of the primary factors you're going to be watching on future runs? It looks like the last two runs of the NAM show this dry air, but the previous ones didn't. thank you for the info.

from my inferior knowledge, it seems that there's a sweet spot in the amount of cap present to lead to a significant outbreak. You want some to suppress all the garbage convection but not too much to suppress it all. What exactly are you looking for in the models that give you an idea of what that cap is going to be and where in that "sweet spot" it falls?

what could lead to a bust tomorrow? Too much of a cap and discrete cells can't fire? Too little cap and we get a bunch of garbage convection? What else?