ATDoel

I have a feeling I know why he got banned....

main action is supposed to be well to our west, where it's clearing out. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw less action this week than last week in central Al. but the area to our west is virtually guaranteed to see a lot more.

We get plenty here too, doesn't change anything when we get a violent one through one of the metros, still a catastrophe

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now. For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much. His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

This is probably a dumb question, but it looks like the lack of cap, forecasted for this event, also caused a lot of the junk convection last week, which prohibited super cells from really getting started and why we "only" had 20 something odd EF2s and weaker tornadoes. Unless I'm mistaken, this forecast has higher amounts of shear, moisture, cape, etc. Even if we get a bunch of junk convection again this go around, is it not fairly logical to think that there's a good chance we have a similar outbreak as last week except, well, with more and stronger... everything?

JPeters earlier mentioned a pocket of warm dry air at around 850mb inhibiting convective growth, looks like it's still there on the 18z.

and intense refers to EF+3? Very confusing, especially since last week their hatched area indicated a 10% chance of an EF2-EF5 tornado.

what I'm more interested in is how often the word "violent" is used in the 1730z d2 outlook that didn't precede an outbreak with at least one ef3+. I thought for sure they did last week, but it looks like they used the terms "strong" and "intense" instead. I have to wonder if they're just using those terms interchangeably with violent or if their word use really is that specific.

I see... so the HRR showing deep moisture all the way up to 800mb is a significant difference than the NAM showing dry air starting at around 900mb. So is this one of the primary factors you're going to be watching on future runs? It looks like the last two runs of the NAM show this dry air, but the previous ones didn't. thank you for the info.

from my inferior knowledge, it seems that there's a sweet spot in the amount of cap present to lead to a significant outbreak. You want some to suppress all the garbage convection but not too much to suppress it all. What exactly are you looking for in the models that give you an idea of what that cap is going to be and where in that "sweet spot" it falls?

what could lead to a bust tomorrow? Too much of a cap and discrete cells can't fire? Too little cap and we get a bunch of garbage convection? What else?

which scenario are you leaning towards?

Do they ever do a D2 high? I don't think I've ever seen one.

nah, we (humans) just don't have the ability to forecast these types of events very accurately. Too many factors our models don't have the ability to predict.

yeah I see that....I wonder how realistic it is.

Brookwood just got absolutely nailed

Tuscaloosa cell finally warned, why in the heck did they take so long?? This was obvious a good 10 minutes ago.

new storm heading directly into Tuscaloosa is starting to rotate, I don't like it

Luckily it's on the north side of the metro which is far less populated than the southern side. It's been awhile since we've had a big one on the south side of Bham....

so....13 more hours of this in central Alabama? ugh....

Not the Enterprise you're thinking of

Worse than we thought so far. Outbreak wasn't supposed to start until 1 PM and we've already had several confirmed touch downs.

Those cells just west of Birmingham look to already have some broad rotation, the event wasn't supposed to start until 1...

Yeah that's how it seems. It's like walking through an area hit by an EF4 and saying "meh, it's no Joplin, damage was overhyped"

Who's saying this is another 2011? I haven't seen or heard of anyone notable making that connection.