downeastnc

Getting smashed here in eastern NC, gotta be 1-2 inches of rain in the last hr, thunder wind etc....

will probably see some ground truth on this couplet from 2-3am last night.....PGV gusted to 43 with the squall, sounded way worse lol, I expected half the trees around my house to be on the ground when the sun came up.

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

Yeah hopefully some hope, in the meantime if the NWS is right starting Friday I am about to spend 3-4 days ( at least) with my daily lows being higher than my normal daily highs...we wont be able to get under 50-53 at night in Jan for days....…..that's just sad and depressing.....I mean hell if nature is gonna do me like that at least throw in some decent thunderstorms my way.

Could be as little love for the NW foothills down to Triad on Tues......temps are warm enough it would be tough to get any real accumulations but maybe a quick slushy inch.....I am not to worried the models always suck at seeing major pattern changes so it wont surprise me at all if sometime in the next week the models suddenly shift to big cold in the east by the middle of the month....

Wind held overnight temps up, forecast was for 25 and we may do it right at dawn but overall temps were at or above freezing most of the night......tonight should be legit cold though with low 20's likely....

Models keep boosting the gradient with this storm and winds gusting to 30-60 mph will be common along the coast and even inland could get 40-50 from Hwy 17ish east....plus 2-3" of rain and cold temps.....the latest shows up to 4-6 ft of surge now possible on the sound sides of the OBX and south end of Pam sound......

12 hrs solidly below freezing this time of year in eastern NC is not that terribly common.....coldest couple of days I can remember before thanksgiving at least with full sun....

If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC From SPC However, instability will remain rather weak from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could locally increase tornado potential across this area.

...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Trend is east so far, the Ukie had a interesting run that took the center over the the FL/GA east coast then just onshore up to the OBX..... 12Z 00Z

Wonder how much impact we will see inland on this outside of rainfall.....I think tornados would be biggest threat.... I don't think there will be much in the way of wind inland, the Sun plot is directly over my house as a 50 mph storm though I doubt anyone away from the beaches see's anything over say 30-35 in gust....

Wasn't Dean your first Cat 5 I remember that thread back on Eastern when you chased it....was that really 12 years ago already ....

I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC ) Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 76. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....