downeastnc

Meh I just need to stay out of the main thread lol....models are trending back east a bit.....they all have a NE jog or keep her right on 71/72W until she is pretty far north and this keeps her offshore once the NW turn happens....so things to look for is for her being more west of track short term say 24-36 hrs, if she is 74/75 west by 30N then I think she hits NC head on, if she is still out at 72/73W at 30N then brushing the OBX is probably as far west as she can get. I still think the 12Z are giving Jose to much credit....if they are wrong and the ridge is stronger sooner then we should see Maria not take that NE jog and drift more W of N and get closer to the 74/75W by 30N...thus being closer and able to get here on that NW turn before that trough cuts in and boots her out....the downside is a more NW track means less Jose wake and probably a bit less shear cause of being steered by the strengthening ridge. I am not convinced she cant be a 100-120 mph cane when she gets up this way.....it would be short sighted to play up the fact she will "only" be a weak cat 1 if she hits... using my super scientific method of holding a piece of paper over the screen to get a heading on the floater it appears without any change in heading Maria would be around 74W when she gets to 30N this puts her far enough west IMO to make it on or over the OBX at least. So that northeast bend the models have from around 12-30 hrs out would need to happen to keep her offshore and we should see that occur if it does it would be a good indicator she will stay east of the OBX.

yeah she was.....she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1 and her surge was the highest ever recorded over most of the Pamlico River basin because her angle of approach and path, combined with the fact she was basically stalled/crawling on the coast ......

If a cane ( even a Cat 1 ) parks just off the OBX for a day there will be more than power outages and beach erosion, HWY 12 will wipe out in dozens of spots and new inlets will be cut trapping anyone on those parts of islands....the dunes can last for a while but once they get taken out homes will start to go, its one thing to have those conditions for 12 hrs or so but once you get into the 24-30 hr range the over wash would be extreme. Then you have to take into account that all that water in the sounds will be blown inland and put 8-12 ft of water in places well inland...Irene did more damage to the OBX than many stronger hurricanes..... Irene put more water up the river than any storm this video is shot well inland and shows 10ft or surge This is because all this water had to go somewhere

I live exactly 101 miles due west from the easternmost point of the OBX. So for me just how far west she comes will make a huge difference in my weather lol...Typically we dont see much here from a near miss on the OBX, so as currently modeled conditions inland would be fine.....if it did the Navgem track right over Lookout that would be more Irene like and if she had a big ole wind field, with a big ole eye like Irene would be a decent hit for eastern NC with widespread TS winds inland to probably I95...we also see a inland wind maximum with stall hits like that as the trough comes in.....anything west of that and obviously it gets worse over eastern and even central NC. Typically NW track storms tend to ramp up a bit coming in as well....not sure how bad shear will be but IF Maria did come in and make a legit landfall on mainland NC and get as far west as say Emerald Isle and be moving slowly like the models have her moving she would be over virgin deep warm water for at least 24 hrs before landfall...so a 100-110 mph cane wouldnt be out of the question IMO. This water vapor loop is pretty telling as to why the models have shifted and why its probably coming close if not into NC...Jose fades and moves east, ridge building in stronger over NE, ULL that seems stronger than modeled diving WSW towards the GOM, sharper trough out west....looks like the setup we see in other NW tracking landfalling storms.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Seems fairly likely that Maria is gonna at least give the OBX TS conditions.....still plenty of time for this to trend more west or east.....there were a lot of people especially in the main thread that wrote Maria off and pretty much said a east coast landfall was impossible etc etc etc, and while it might not make landfall it seems more likely Maria will at least have a direct impact on the OBX and if she goes west another 100 miles even well into eastern NC and the VA beaches....this goes to show that making definitive statements concerning a hurricane track 6 days out is as dumb as locking in on a snowfall weenie map in the same range.

Wow at least 8 members making legit landfalls over eastern NC on the 18Z GEFS, this is a huge shift west today, still the Euro isnt on board so until that happens you gotta put more weight into the OTS track, if the Euro caves to the GFS then chances go way up that NC deals with a landfall/near miss next week. Starting to remind me of this run the GFS had last weekend https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017091612&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0

Yeah quite the change.....and it does look similar to the way the models ran 3-4 days ago.....maybe they locked in on Jose being much stronger in the mid range and it took Jose weakening quicker before they started correcting....we are 5 days or so from when it would get up here if it came here so thats plenty of time for more changes....if the Euro starts back west then at the very least the OBX on back on the table, I noticed the NHC slipped Hatteras into the cone..

Still a little early to call it a trend the Euro didnt bite at it at 12Z but the overall look is there, that was 50-100 miles from being a legit hit over eastern NC.

yeah should go NE from there....one more west jog like that one and its gonna be landfall at Cape Lookout and then inland over the IBX.....

You take that east bump around 72 hrs out of the mean track and leave everything else the same and we get a NC landfall around Lookout probably....which was a solution the models ran several times 3-4 days ago....still a low chance of happening but the models have all jumped west quite a bit today at 12Z.....still this is close enough now that a few more west bumps would be enough to bring the center over or close enough to give cane conditions on the OBX....

The problem is the GFS and Euro are not budging.....or at least the GFS hasn't at 00Z and I doubt the Euro does either....the GFS literally takes Maria almost due NNW or N from her current location, if Maria is on the same general heading in 12-18hrs and in the Turks and Caicos without a noticeable north trend then maybe the CMC was onto something and you would think the other models would begin correcting....still that seems unlikely as hell IMO.....

A few more west jogs like ones the plane is finding and she will be outside the NHC cone inside of a 12 hrs....this doesn't necessarily mean anything down the road but slower and more west means more time for Jose to die and the ridge to bridge.....still the ridge to her immediate NE is small and suppose to weaken thanks to Jose so she should begin to turn north fairly soon......unless the models have over done Jose's effect on said ridge....also 128knt at the surface in the eyewall that last pass....probably a gust but still that's 150 mph.....

I agree its highly unlikely the models have it wrong, that doesnt mean however that the models cant be way off, just look back at Matthew last year and the big loop the models had him taking off the SE coast that never happened even though the NHC had it as the track for DAYS...sometimes models get something wrong and lock in on it and dont correct till the last minute. I dont think that is the case here but if the models are wrong and start to correct I would expect to see it tonight into tomorrow since that would be when Jose is about as far east as he is gonna go....anyone got the 00Z Euro ens plots....

We will know if the models have the ridge under done or Jose influence over done tonight into tomorrow....all the models have Maria going pretty much north by 72W....she never gets any further west than that really, so if she gets further west than 72W then you gotta think the models may have misread the WAR/Jose...I haven't seen the Euro ENS but the GFS is tightly clustered well offshore and the CMC has quite a few west of the mean including a few NC hits....still its hard to see a way the models have it this wrong in the 2-3 day range.....

Hard to see the models being wrong enough 60-72 hrs out to get Maria more west, that turn N to NE at hr 60 on the 00Z GFS is what needs to trend west to make her a threat.....though its starting to look pretty safe that she wont get any closer than 150 or so miles to Hatteras....which means basically a non event outside big waves....