downeastnc

I laughed a bit when I saw it, its hot but lets not get crazy....yesterday RDU peaked at a 103 HI, we will see how high it gets today, PGV hit 107 yesterday and 110 a week ago and no excessive heat warnings and we are 70 miles from RDU.

The overall runs looks like the pattern we are in of 3-4 hot days followed by 3-4 normal to below normal days is going to continue, as we get later in Aug if the SE ridge keeps moving back and forth like it is it could make or break a landfall for the SE coast.....this pattern makes me feel like there are going to be several storms make runs at us this year.

This is from RDU for next week...enjoy it now cause you probably wont see this sentence used much after November..... Sun-Wed: Above normal temps/humidity may persist into Sunday, though chances for convection will also increase as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over/upstream of the Mid-Atlantic. With an unseasonably complex synoptic pattern over the mid-latitudes, uncertainty increases significantly by early/mid next week. At this time, will indicate near normal temperatures and near climatological chances for convection Mon-Wed, in assoc/w a synoptic pattern generally characterized by ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS.

NWS keeps bumping us down in the grids, now calling for a high of 95 Fri and 96 Sat/Sun and has us back at 89 by Wed.... MHX disco talks heavy rain next week according to the Euro possible... Thursday Night through Sunday...19/12Z global model suite remain in decent agreement with extending the west- central upper ridge eastward while another upper ridge moves into the western Atlantic. This pattern will lead to increasing temps and humidity with below normal convective coverage through the weekend. What activity there is should be diurnally driven in the afternoon and early evenings although will have to be on the outlook for possible upstream MCS development and possible effects on this area, though will only continue advertising no higher than a 20 pop through the weekend across interior zones. 19/12Z ECMWF/GFS/CMC in good agreement with low level thicknesses 1425-1430 meters Friday and around 1435-1440 meters Sat- Sun. This will support max temps easily reaching the mid 90s each day. With dewpoints forecast to be in the 70s, critical Heat Index values AOA 105 degrees are likely from Friday through Sunday. Monday through Tuesday...Ensemble height fields indicate a lowering of heights/thicknesses beginning as early as Monday, and especially into Tuesday as elongated ridge gets suppressed due to amplification of eastern CONUS long wave trough. This will likely put an end to the very hot and humid pattern, and lead to increasing shower/storm chances. The ECMWF is quite moist as it is advertising layer mix ratios as high as 17 g/kg with excellent streamline moisture convergence across the region, indicating another potential heavy rain threat developing

Yeah I agree this is far from a legit heat wave but in the terms of how average this summer has been its the closest thing to a heat wave so far. Some places in the sandhills etc will flirt with 100 maybe. I don't expect to get much above 98 here and it will definitely be the hottest weather of the year. Again though if this ends up being the hottest stretch we have to deal with this summer then its been a good summer.

The 18Z runs always seem to be the off run every day for whatever reason...00Z was in line with previous runs, and the CMC and Euro also show the cool off so this heat isnt going to lock in. The pattern does look dryer overall though but like you pointed out rainfall hasnt been a issue unless you live in Shetleys area apparently.

Looks like August could start below normal with highs barely getting into the mid 80's, most of us should see 88-90 as our average high this time of year so low to mid 80's is awesome especially considering the next 3-5 days. So Friday thru Sunday will be hot but even so the models have backed off a lot of the 100 type temps and show mid to upper 90's which isn't really that impressive all things considered. Then Wed on next week looks below normal.....and once we get to mid Aug the chances of major heat waves start to back off and given the pattern we are in this year it seems likely that this weekend could be the worst we see all summer.....and if that is the case then this summer has been about as typical and average a summer as you will find in the SE. The GFS run starting next Wed....the CMC and Euro agree. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2017071812&fh=204&xpos=0&ypos=0

Most models form a low right on the NC coast late in July then take it OTS....might not be totally tropical but should be a big rain maker. models really don't do anything with the wave trailing Don.

Yeah options are limited, could try to get it early but deal with wet grass/super high RH or wait and try to get it right at dark but it will still be in the 90's.......but the DP should mix out some in the afternoon. I guess you could always go with the "madman" option and do it around 1-2 in the afternoon. Here we get enough rain that my yard needs it every 5 days or so but I try to go 7, luckily I got Thur off this week so it will get it after 4 days this time around its either that or it goes 10-12 days lol. We had storm fire like that at 9:30 last night radar was clear and inside of 20 mins its was storms all over.....

Yeah going to be 95-100 with high RH and DP's.....so some 110-120 HI values will be the case for extended periods Fri-Sun....nothing says summer like 10-12 hrs of above 100+ heat indexes every day. Never fear though the models have us well below normal the last week of the run......a few days with highs in the low 80's as the pattern delivers with yet another trough.....

Steady light to moderate rain all morning so far here at work. Been raining off and on since around 9-10 last night actually, just been non stop the last 3-4 hrs.

storms firing right over me, great lightning and heavy rain....

1.0" on the dot a hr ago when i glanced at the gauge, thats last night and today.....got up to 88 before the showers started.....sitting at 81 right now with a little light drizzle not bad for July lol.

PGV officially recorded a heat index of 110 before the DP mixed out a bit from 77 down to "only" 73.....some storms firing up along I-95 in NC ..Scape pushing 5000, Mcape is 3000, Pwats are 2.2", so if you do get under a storm its gonna be like being in a waterfall.

Its 86/77 HI 97 already, gonna be 100+ on the heat index by 11......to me the worse part of days like this are from now until 2-3ish, after that the DP usually mixes out a bit and it it doesnt feel as bad....the next few hrs though ugh.