downeastnc

Red Sox won the WS and now the Pats are SB bound.....got a lot of folks to hit up at work tomorrow that talked a lot of smack, going to be a good day.

Generally for us in eastern NC anyways it seems like the models never really pick up on the threat in a meaningful way until its 5-7 days out.....there is potential in the models after Jan 20th.

Yeah very rare....1980 was ZR/sleet to start with temps in the mid 30's before temps crashed into the teens with SN+........the 12Z GFS takes PGV from 43 and rain to 23 and heavy sleet/snow in one frame. Would indeed be absolutely insane to see a 20 degree temp drop in 6 hrs after precip started.....FV3 even more ridiculous temp of 60 to low 20's in 6 hrs....I would give anything to see this actually happen.... HR

PGV...... Highest temp: 99 Lowest temp: -1 MBY -5 Rainfall: 66.40" Snowfall: 6"

PGV all time record is 70.23, currently we sit at 64.45" and that's before todays rain we could make a run at the all time but it seems unlikely......more remarkably though is that the last 5 years together are by far the wettest period in PGV history....we are 68" over normal since Jan 1 2014. That well over a years worth of extra rainfall in that time frame. 2014 61.45" 2015 69.09"---missed all time by 1.14" 2016 69.96"----missed all time by .27" 2017 50.49"---right on average 2018 64.45" and counting.....

rain mixed with big IP and mangled snowflakes...starting to see more mangled flakes so hopefully it switches over in the next hr, if we went all snow with how heavy the precip is I could see a quick 1-2" type event.....need it to switch soon though should end in 3-4 more hrs....

Sleet/snow mix here.....when rates back off its just drizzle....wont amount to much but maybe enough to cover the ground again by the time it ends overnight.....

Yeah hoping the last run of the HRRR is right gives us a inch or so and with temps getting below freezing that would probably stick fairly well....now I just need it to be a bit stronger than forecast if I can grab 2" tonight that would give us 6" total for the 2 systems and put us at 100% of average for the winter.....before winter even starts.

ULL are fun but frustrating....models tend to do pretty badly with them as far as how intense they can be....like several have mentioned some big snows have happened in NC due to a ULL dropping in like this.....you just never know what they will do for sure. No one should expect more than say 1-2" but there could easily be a few spots that win out and get over that.....

I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....

The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....

GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today

And just like that its mostly rain/sleet with a few flakes the HRRR actually has that mix for this hr and then pushes snow in here for a few more hrs around 7am but usually once we flip to rain its ballgame....if it gets that flip back to snow for a few hrs right that will be damn impressive.....

HRRR did much better with temps and ptypes......NAM gave us .5" of slush with temps in the mid 30's...HRRR had us with 2-4" and temps down to 33 though we are at 31 now....either way Ididnt expect to see the roads covered, usually you don't get big fatties for hrs on end but tonight we have.....being on the edge pays off sometimes.... Latest HRRR run has us with 3 more hrs of snow and 2" more.....though that line on CC is getting damn close 10-15 miles south of town but it does seem to have slowed again....

We are at 32 ( never modeled to get lower than 33-34 ) got a solid 1"on the ground, 2" on elevated surfaces and the roads and sidewalks are flashing over.....so this band means business even way down here in eastern NC....