downeastnc

If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC From SPC However, instability will remain rather weak from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could locally increase tornado potential across this area.

...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Trend is east so far, the Ukie had a interesting run that took the center over the the FL/GA east coast then just onshore up to the OBX..... 12Z 00Z

Wonder how much impact we will see inland on this outside of rainfall.....I think tornados would be biggest threat.... I don't think there will be much in the way of wind inland, the Sun plot is directly over my house as a 50 mph storm though I doubt anyone away from the beaches see's anything over say 30-35 in gust....

Wasn't Dean your first Cat 5 I remember that thread back on Eastern when you chased it....was that really 12 years ago already ....

I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC ) Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 76. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....

The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian....

95L could end up being a big rain maker for parts of the SE depending on track...the UKIE/Icon seems to want to go up the east coast of Florida and bring the rain more N the Euro more NW across Florida into AL/GA the GFS is like what storm.... Euro UKIE

GFS has been running a landfall on the east coast every 2-3 runs the rest are OTS, some closer than others....by the end of this week the GFS and other models will have ran so many run's with so many slightly different track that one of them will end up right....IF this thing dodges the first weakness and gets to the SW Atl the chances of it getting close are pretty high....heck the models develop several waves on different runs we might end up with 2-3 storms at once....

Emerald Isle tornado rated 115 mph EF2...on the ground for 13 miles that pretty long given the circumstances. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR EMERALD ISLE IN CARTERET COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... Location...Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina Date...September 5th 2019 Estimated Time...902 AM - 931 AM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...115 MPH Maximum Path Width...200 yards Path Length...13 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...34.656430/-77.052352 Ending lat/Lon...34.795735/-77.215384 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed a tornado near Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina on September 5th 2019. A waterspout near Bogue Inlet Pier came onshore as a tornado near Janell Ln., Boardwalk RV Park and Salty Pirate Waterpark in Emerald Isle. The waterspout was quite large when it was offshore and was viewed by the Bogue Inlet Pier web cam courtesy of Surfline. The most intense damage was found here. On Janell Lane, a section of a metal roof was removed on one side of a house that was in the opposite direction of the storm motion. On the other side of the house, with the storm motion, large sections of the metal roof were removed with similar damage to a house next door. As the path crossed into the RV park, numerous RV style homes were tossed and rolled more than 30 feet, ripping out ground anchors that strapped them down. In the middle of the path, where the winds were strongest, numerous RV type homes suffered complete destruction. Based on the complete destruction of the homes, along with the loss of substantial sections of a metal roof, which usually have a higher wind rating, damage was consistent with that of an EF 2 tornado or around 115 MPH. The path continued to the north northwest where more damage was found to the Salty Pirate Waterpark and continued across Highway 58 (Emerald Drive) where several homes were damaged along W Harbor Trail and Sunrise Ct. The tornado then moved over the Bogue Sound, becoming a waterspout again. Eyewitness accounts indicate that a funnel may have persisted, but no apparent tornado damage was found in Cedar Point. Several videos from members of the public conclusively show that the funnel cloud returned to the surface in the form of a waterspout as it crossed over the lower White Oak River. The waterspout continued for several minutes northwestward up the White Oak River before once again coming ashore as a tornado and causing major roof damage to a home on Watersedge Cir. and minor damage to several other structures in the Holland Point Dr. area. The tornado then tracked through mostly forested and undeveloped land for approximately 6 miles before heavily damaging a farm and residential property on Kidd Ln. in Maysville. Based on eyewitness accounts, the funnel cloud may have persisted for several more miles, but the lack of identifiable tornado damage indicates that the end of the tornado path was this location on Kidd Ln. in southern Maysville.

recent sat photos of OBX after Dorian lots of new cuts on Cape Lookout national beaches and it looks like some of the cottages might have been lost... https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/dorian/index.html#12/34.9052/-76.2280

Winds have been steady gusting into the 45-50 range maybe a bit higher here for the last couple of hrs...powers browned out a few timeesand I have seen a few transformers go but so far its just right on the edge of strong enough to really cause a lot of problems....models hint that around daybreak we might get a period of gust 60-70 inland as some drier air works in...not sold on that but we shall see.... this is for around 8 am....and shows the band of heavier winds on the western side

Gusting 45 here now, first power flickers gonna be a long night....

If the entire center can get onshore and over the sound it sometimes actually helps them tighten up a bit...Irene hit at 950 MB 85 mph and actually dropped to 949 and held her winds up for hrs over the Pamlico Sound....