downeastnc

I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC ) Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 76. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....

The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian....

95L could end up being a big rain maker for parts of the SE depending on track...the UKIE/Icon seems to want to go up the east coast of Florida and bring the rain more N the Euro more NW across Florida into AL/GA the GFS is like what storm.... Euro UKIE

GFS has been running a landfall on the east coast every 2-3 runs the rest are OTS, some closer than others....by the end of this week the GFS and other models will have ran so many run's with so many slightly different track that one of them will end up right....IF this thing dodges the first weakness and gets to the SW Atl the chances of it getting close are pretty high....heck the models develop several waves on different runs we might end up with 2-3 storms at once....

Emerald Isle tornado rated 115 mph EF2...on the ground for 13 miles that pretty long given the circumstances. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR EMERALD ISLE IN CARTERET COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... Location...Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina Date...September 5th 2019 Estimated Time...902 AM - 931 AM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...115 MPH Maximum Path Width...200 yards Path Length...13 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...34.656430/-77.052352 Ending lat/Lon...34.795735/-77.215384 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed a tornado near Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina on September 5th 2019. A waterspout near Bogue Inlet Pier came onshore as a tornado near Janell Ln., Boardwalk RV Park and Salty Pirate Waterpark in Emerald Isle. The waterspout was quite large when it was offshore and was viewed by the Bogue Inlet Pier web cam courtesy of Surfline. The most intense damage was found here. On Janell Lane, a section of a metal roof was removed on one side of a house that was in the opposite direction of the storm motion. On the other side of the house, with the storm motion, large sections of the metal roof were removed with similar damage to a house next door. As the path crossed into the RV park, numerous RV style homes were tossed and rolled more than 30 feet, ripping out ground anchors that strapped them down. In the middle of the path, where the winds were strongest, numerous RV type homes suffered complete destruction. Based on the complete destruction of the homes, along with the loss of substantial sections of a metal roof, which usually have a higher wind rating, damage was consistent with that of an EF 2 tornado or around 115 MPH. The path continued to the north northwest where more damage was found to the Salty Pirate Waterpark and continued across Highway 58 (Emerald Drive) where several homes were damaged along W Harbor Trail and Sunrise Ct. The tornado then moved over the Bogue Sound, becoming a waterspout again. Eyewitness accounts indicate that a funnel may have persisted, but no apparent tornado damage was found in Cedar Point. Several videos from members of the public conclusively show that the funnel cloud returned to the surface in the form of a waterspout as it crossed over the lower White Oak River. The waterspout continued for several minutes northwestward up the White Oak River before once again coming ashore as a tornado and causing major roof damage to a home on Watersedge Cir. and minor damage to several other structures in the Holland Point Dr. area. The tornado then tracked through mostly forested and undeveloped land for approximately 6 miles before heavily damaging a farm and residential property on Kidd Ln. in Maysville. Based on eyewitness accounts, the funnel cloud may have persisted for several more miles, but the lack of identifiable tornado damage indicates that the end of the tornado path was this location on Kidd Ln. in southern Maysville.

recent sat photos of OBX after Dorian lots of new cuts on Cape Lookout national beaches and it looks like some of the cottages might have been lost... https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/dorian/index.html#12/34.9052/-76.2280

Winds have been steady gusting into the 45-50 range maybe a bit higher here for the last couple of hrs...powers browned out a few timeesand I have seen a few transformers go but so far its just right on the edge of strong enough to really cause a lot of problems....models hint that around daybreak we might get a period of gust 60-70 inland as some drier air works in...not sold on that but we shall see.... this is for around 8 am....and shows the band of heavier winds on the western side

Gusting 45 here now, first power flickers gonna be a long night....

If the entire center can get onshore and over the sound it sometimes actually helps them tighten up a bit...Irene hit at 950 MB 85 mph and actually dropped to 949 and held her winds up for hrs over the Pamlico Sound....

The eyewall wont be the issue for us it will be the dry air working in as the center is to our east....this forms a western wind max over the central coastal plains...a lot of models have 70-100 mph winds are 925MB and if enough dry air gets worked in that can mix those down.....but lately even the models have walked that back to a more reasonable period of 50-70 mph winds we shall see if it pans out.

Getting regular gust into the 30's now, a lot more steady wind between squalls.....worried about that big one rotating in between Lookout and Hatteras as it pushes north its the one that has producing all the tornadic supercells...they are just lined up out there...

Yeah he is in the New Bern area...

TOG around New Bern a few mins ago...actually hit parts of downtown New Bern looks like light damage mostly trees and such

Big story so far is the tornados, we have had reports of several in the area, many are not warned in time as they form and lift in a matter of a minute or two...they will extend and shift the watch a bit as the old one runs out... The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift north across ww636. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC - Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636, continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.