downeastnc

Models bring the warm air inland to at least I 95 tonight and the NAM 3k and HRRR have a squall line develop and blast east......might see the SPC drag that slight risk inland a bit.....nothing worse than a Nov nighttime squall line, at one time NC lead the US in Nov tornado deaths.....not sure if that dubious honor still applies. Found this about nighttime tornadoes turns out its for NC in general https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2012/12/17/28-of-nc-tornadoes-occur-at-night-but-are-responsible-for-67-of-all-tornado-fatalities/ From RAH..... but the surface temps/dewpoints and their impact on convection over the SE CWA are more uncertain. Low pressure will develop over E NC along the front and ride northward tonight, and this may allow enough warm air to track inland to contribute to weak surface-based instability overnight. Southport in SE NC is already 70 (while CAD-impacted RDU sits at 43 and GSO at 39) with other coastal sites in the mid-upper 60s, so the risk for some CAPE in our SE this evening persists as this juicy air works inland. And given the increasing and shifting winds with height through the low levels generating high 0-1 km SRH, a few rotating cells may occur.

At PGV clouds moved in holding temps to a low of 30 before a bounce back to 33/34 by dawn.....

PGV hit 32 for one observation so I guess it doesnt really count as a "freeze"......also PGV hasnt hit 32 this early since 1992.

A guy on my hunting board said that Duke had also sent crews south to preposition to help out in FL/GA....so they are also short crews....not sure if its true though.

Wind picking up here, still seeing reports of 50-60 mph gust just W and SW of me so we will see how it goes the next hr or so.....

Hope not

radar returns fading fast might not be able to get the winds down here east of I 95 without the heavier showers....

all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power....

Ft Bragg reporting 51 mph gust as the band builds south.....

You can see the wind field expanding this is all 70+ mph stuff...also dont be fooled west and south of that area the winds are rough and picking up the radar just doesnt see it as well that far away as the beam gets higher

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1050493946399518720 Allan Huffman tweeted 54 gust at RDU gonna go higher than that though I bet

That was a thunderstorm you probably are not done....velocity scans show serious wind close to the ground over you, that band of rain just west of you will get that to the surface as well....should pick back up in 15-30 mins or less....

yeah looks like we are gonna get our intense wind band.....might not see some of the insane high 85-90 mph gust the HRRR has then again I wouldn't rule that out RDU to the east in isolated cases....feel pretty good that the Triangle will be getting widespread 55-65 gust in a few hrs......gonna be a fun commute home for many....

HRRR shows lull for you well, you guys are the ones that will let us know if the HRRR is overdone or not cause if you are not getting hammered by 1-2pm its overdone 11am 1 pm

Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol.