downeastnc

The models had Florence turning out well east of Bermuda.....every system is different but yeah models were very wrong with Florence even up to landfall there were fairly significant changes.....

This chaser looks to be trying to drive into the eye from Houma

HRRR bullish on winds. usually I take these maps with a grain of salt but with the high offshore packing the gradient and dry air working in around the S and SE side who knows...maybe some 40-50 mph gust are possible for 3-4 hrs tomorrow....

Yeah might get some gust into the low 40's certainly nothing to extreme...nice that it seems to peak between 4-9 tomorrow afternoon and not 12-4 am like usual.

Well then

70/63 at PGV.....gonna be interesting to see how it plays out today.....had some filtered sun a hr ago back to overcast.....sat looks like some more filtered sun possible in a hr or two around peak heating.....

Looks like EF2-3 type damage.....some fairly new homes look to be wiped to the foundation almost....

This is pretty darn good agreement....

Yeah this is a insane panel.....with that low strength and placement you wouldnt think the warm nose is that strong.....its showing 23/24 IMBY with the snow/rain line slam back in the mts.....

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Right we need the PV to either dive on down and give us a monster snow storm or hang up.....some runs have had epic ice storms with temps in the single digits and teens for DAYS afterwards which would be certainly life threatening with widespread power outages, and with that kind of bitter cold it would be very difficult for crews to begin to repair the damage....

Thats my hope, the chances the models have the location and timing of the S/W's in this range given the setup is pretty low and there is going to be a lot of changes run to run, it wont be till Tues/Wed once the players are better sampled modeled that we get a real idea....so while the monster big dog seems much less likely on most runs the potential for it to come back is certainly there.

If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back.....