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downeastnc

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About downeastnc

  • Birthday 05/15/1972

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KPGV
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Greenville, NC
  • Interests
    Storm Chasing, Weather, Hunting and Fishing
  1. 2018 Banter Thread

    I had to turn my AC on got to 78 in the house even with the windows open and I gotta have it cold to sleep, low of 68 and a high of 80 tomorrow means it stays on till tomorrow nights cold front......and the neighbor behind me mowed his onion grass,hen bit and dandelions.
  2. February 2018 Obs

    had gust to 30-40 with the front.....blew a lot of stuff around the neighborhood....temp went from 70 to 50 in about a hr or so....
  3. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yeah this would be a nice little event to finish the year on....
  4. February 2018 Obs

    Crazy rain rates in this squall line down here.
  5. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    You are in a better spot than most of the NC posters that low track needs to move SE like the ICON/CMC has it and even then the cold air supply sucks and its a stale air mass...I just wouldnt hang to much hope on this one being more than a few hrs of snow before going to rain for most folks that do actually see snow....could be good though just east of the mts in VA north were the cold hangs on longer. The good thing is it has several days to trend towards a deeper trough and maybe keep that low track more on the coast and not over central NC....
  6. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    Yeah your 850's are good enough barely to keep it snow so if rates are good enough you can get snow....still you guys need a east shift to get anything decent out of it and the trend has been west if anything on all the models except the CMC.....so hope for a sharper deeper trough so this thing trends SE a bit
  7. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    CMC isnt really that good though for anyone in NC or even VA for that matter..... This looks good for NW NC and SW VA till you look at temps for the same frame This wont get it done.....too warm at the surface everywhere pretty much
  8. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Ill take the 18Z GFS for Feb 5-6th, the trend all winter has been for slower, stronger and more neutral to neg tilted troughs as we get closer to the event.......if that trend plays out again then Feb 5-6th would be much snowier in the Carolinas. Especially my end of the state
  9. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yeah lots of crazy in this thread lately....people need to let the pattern change happen...models are most likely pretty wrong in the 7+ day range if there is a major pattern change back to cold coming, they just don't do well with locking in on them until it actually happens....so if there is going to be another substantial cold outbreak it wont be evident until mid week or later.....but hey lets take the long range GFS to heart cause its always right
  10. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    GFS/Euro both give eastern NC a dusting Monday night....be interesting to see if the NAM picks up on it....shouldbt be much not enough moisture to turn into anything significant but if we can squeeze a .5-1" out of it it will be the 3rd time this year the ground is covered with snow... MHX AFD "Last several runs of ECM/GFS have come in more bullish on moisture with this mid level feature. There will be plenty of lift in the 850-700MB layer, and enough moisture availability to squeeze out some light precip. Temps at the same time will be cooling from top-down through the overnight, and have introduced small pops for -SN or -SN/-RA late Mon night through early Tue morning. Best chance for flakes will be across nrn zones where deeper moisture and colder column coexist. At this time not expecting travel problems as amounts look to be quite light whatever falls.
  11. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern in the mid to long range.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern.
  12. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Its pretty much how the Jan outbreak started......2 of the 3 biggest snows in my life happened Feb 24th and Mar 2-3.....the thing about Feb cold is climo wise its about the coldest air you can get in the arctic with the cold peaking there in early to mid Feb.....
  13. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Models, especially the GFS are horrible at pattern changes, they never lock into a blocky pattern until its within 7 days or so.....folks need to look at the indexes, and overall setup and not hug the warm ups the GFS has after the first week of Feb....if the forecast for most indexes are correct and frankly they probably are then it will be very cold in Feb....sometime between Feb 1-10th its gonna get blocky and be darn near record cold for 7-10 days at least .
  14. Night snow or Day snow

    Day snow all the way, I love watching it fall.......though I prefer it to start at night around midnight and then snow thru noon the next day.....so maybe I can count as both....still though there is something about heavy wind driven snow in a streetlight....
  15. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    we broke bunches of record lows and even tied our all time record low of -4...we also probably spent more time in the single digits in that week than we have the entire decade ( or two even) prior to that week.....ironically we actually went above freezing barely for 4-5 hrs the day it snowed so we didnt get the consecutive hr record everyone else got.
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