downeastnc

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Everything posted by downeastnc

  1. Regardless of warm noses the main show will be after the low takes over off the SE coast and its going to snow and snow hard across a lot of central and eastern NC.....widespread 4-6" with higher spots seems very likely if the NAM is even half right.....
  2. Also we have not seen a flake since Dec 10th 2018 not 2019.....in the Jan 2018 storm I had 7-8" but officially they listed like 4-5".....we had 8" in Dec 2010 for sure.
  3. This cant be stressed enough....also this wont be as big a mixing problem as some think.....a lot of those sleet soundings in central NC are BARELY sleet soundings at all and once it flips to all snow and that coastal cranks up I doubt we see nearly as much mixing over central and south central NC as the models show....those silly NAM numbers are doable but even 60-70% of the NAM output is a monster hit....
  4. The NAM FGEN is it should go nuts if the NAM is right...
  5. major improvement on the 18Z Euro Ens....lots of members now showing decent event..
  6. Yeah l got my fingers crossed this pans out......my average on the NAM the last 4 runs is around 10-15"....
  7. Bought time....been a long long time since we had anything like that at least 10yrs....
  8. It should be noted that this is the last frame of the NAM so lots of snow still to go....so totals could be several inches higher than this...
  9. I hope this one pans out, we have not had a single flake fall here since Dec 10th 2018....
  10. Seems like we had one like this back in 2002 or 3 maybe that had a leeside trough enhanced area over the foothills and a late popping coastal that left like a foot on the OBX with less in between but still I think every county in the state recorded at least 1"
  11. I am optimistic that my snow drought ends Thurs night, might even pick up a decent 2-3" event out of it....the downside is my onion grass/weeds are at least 6" tall in spots, I hate when my weeds stick out of my nice snow covered yard.
  12. Starting to think maybe my snow drought will end Thur night.....been awhile since I we had a decent long duration overrunning type event around here....
  13. Nice to see both the GFS and Euro agreeing with at least the potential, would feel better if this was 4-5 days out though....still big high over eastern GL and low off the coast moving ENE is what we want.....
  14. Getting sun here now and the wind jacking up with the mixing.....also temp went from 63 to 77 with DP in mid 60's.....
  15. Yeah easily the worst I can remember for the Charlotte metro area in a long while....if it don't calm down soon it will end up being a big day for the entire state.....we are getting a few breaks in the clouds down here in the east.
  16. Spartanburg [Spartanburg Co, SC] EM reports TORNADO at 9:22 AM EST -- EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG WEST MAIN STREET NEAR INTERSTATE 26. TWO TRACTOR TRAILERS WERE FLIPPED AND SOME BUILDINGS ARE COLLAPSED. A DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS OBSERVED SO LIKELY TORNADO
  17. There is damage reports and maybe a Wal Mart got hit...so it was legit and their is ground truth confirming the CC drop....
  18. There are several times in the last few runs where big things could happen, I think we cash in, maybe even a few times... This is so close to being a big deal for most of NC...
  19. Yeah it will bounce around a lot I am sure.....its so far out....I think in a pattern like this that the models have trouble with all the waves....if I get a good hit here chances are it will be poorly modeled till 3-5 days out....that is typically how it happens, its very rare for a system that gives us snow in eastern NC to lock in and hold a hit in the models five or more days out.
  20. Getting smashed here in eastern NC, gotta be 1-2 inches of rain in the last hr, thunder wind etc....
  21. will probably see some ground truth on this couplet from 2-3am last night.....PGV gusted to 43 with the squall, sounded way worse lol, I expected half the trees around my house to be on the ground when the sun came up.
  22. IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....