downeastnc

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Everything posted by downeastnc

  1. never warned, about a half mile from the parents and a 1.5 miles from me....
  2. Yeah and for a second there I thought we were gonna get smacked around, and we kind of did for 30-45 mins I am sure we had some 60-65 mph type gust and then maybe 45 mins either side of that period we were 40-50......but it was quick 2am to 4am, I will post a few pics later I had to go to work lol.....
  3. Lost power at 3am got it back about a hr ago.....hear some chainsaws around the neighborhood and I smelled the pines and heard several trees come down, I think the forward speed kept this thing in check, 4-5 hrs of winds like we had at peak and there would be trees down all over and everyone without power, but it was maybe 2 hrs from the first gust to 40 to the last.....peak was maybe 55-65 mph, it got legit for about 30-45 mins, when the center was almost directly to my west 20 miles or so....and then it was over with winds tapering off to barely TS force again in gust....
  4. Best guess based on obs so far .....
  5. Just now getting the first TS force gust here, you about to get the band Jim Cantore was in.....New River has already gusted mid 60's in that first band, you probably going to get hurricane force gust in this band.
  6. On the current track what he is currently standing in is going to go right up just west of Hwy 17, Jacksonville, New Bern, Kinston, Greenville, Washington etc are all going to catch that east eyewall...... Gonna be a interesting 6 hrs or so.....just getting into the first real rain band not much wind yet....
  7. This drop is the SW "eyewall" should do it Time: 23:13:00Z Coordinates: 32.550N 79.383W Acft. Static Air Press: 696.7 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,069 m (10,069 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 991.2 mb (29.27 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 321° at 37 kts (From the NW at 42.6 mph) Air Temp: 12.4°C (54.3°F) Dew Pt: 11.2°C (52.2°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 kts (74.8 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (0.08 in/hr)
  8. Geez.....these are the wind clown maps and are probably overdone 10% or so....still lights out eastern half of NC..... ICON Euro Ukie
  9. So the center is even more NE near the MLC on that last center fix....nice jump to the NE...
  10. When was the last hurricane force gust in RDU Fran?
  11. Brings the west side onshore way down in central SC though.....I would almost be willing to be there would be bigger winds there if the center came in at the border moving NNE up I 95......the west side would have less time to erode, then again having half the center over shore may relax the gradient and spread the stronger winds west........either way I look screwed here, I am a wind junkie so I will be on my porch for the whole thing but man I am going to hate having no power for 2+ days...and its going to be hot.....the upside will be the entire neighborhood coming together to clean up and grilling out at the cul de sac every night.....
  12. The SC/NC landfall versus dragging the west side up half the SC coast will be a factor in how much and how far the western wind field gets....still it sure looks like 40-60 mph gust are almost a lock for the Triangle at least. Recon hit 989 that last pass through..
  13. Its going to have a lot less holding it back in 18 hrs and the last 18 hrs up till landfall look like some organization is possible, it does not take much to make a big difference.....Bertha had a decent pressure drop leading up to landfall and was basically a half a cane with no southern eye at all 12ish hrs out and ended up a 105 mph cane that produced gust to 90 mph in MBY well inland.....anywhere along and east of the track in NC could see gust 60-80 mph...up your way maybe less on the west side but the east side will be stout.
  14. Bertha was really dropping fast as she came in gust to 90+ well inland....Diana went apeshit and only that crazy little loop saved NC from a Cat 4 hit..... Diana went a 75 mph cane to a 135 mph cane in a day and stopped 15 miles offshore had she not stopped and kept going north another 100 miles........
  15. The Ukie run was nasty for MBY would get me the center though and probably 6-8 hrs of hurricane gust....very Bertha like....lights out for central/eastern NC and points north.....
  16. HMON pretty much Ukie same pressure and landfall/track in NC
  17. Yeah ouch....wrecks NC then carries it up the coast.....worst case really....
  18. Should be a interesting few days, this really reminds me of Irene.....seems I remember her evolving much like this has so far but maybe a tough further east......
  19. Latest GFS solid landfall Jacksonville/Swansboro NC
  20. Looks like just south of this one another one is either taking over or there will be two tornados down at the same time
  21. Big TDS with it now.....at work so I cant post it but its intense.....
  22. Looking on Google Earth there are several large hog/chicken farms around town and those buildings are made of big long sheets of sheet metal so that would make for a impressive debris sig if they were hit......
  23. yeah mid morning to early afternoon could be problematic in central and eastern NC.....soundings are as bad as they get around here.
  24. yeah this could get bad Monroe pretty sizable town.....