downeastnc

Euro/GFS say it will be a bit windy next week when the big storm rides the Apps with the big high offshore, these are always over done but even if you knock off `15-20 mph from these numbers that still puts us in a wind advisory criteria day with gust to 50ish.....

Ukie similar as well.....

65 went to grocery store in shorts and a t shirt.....still snow on ground and roofs in a few spots lol....

21 degrees last night makes this the first night we have been below 25 all winter.....in fact we have only been below 30 a total of 15 times all winter.

I am at work now and I actually got 1-2" more at my house than here (about 10 miles north of my house) but ground still covered, the wind was from behind the building so the ground closest to building was protected

Gonna call it 5" after compaction...

Flakes trying to get bigger and rates are still high if I had quarter size flakes this would be piling up fast...

My front porch a hr ago.....need them flakes bigger....

HRRR still pounds....these numbers are best case I think but still....

Its only gust sustained is in the teens...….so probably looking at heavy snow with 15-20mph winds gusting to 30-35 over the central coastal plains around 10pm-2am...certainly not blizzard conditions..assuming the models are right....

The 18Z HRRR from around 8pm to 3-4am is pretty insane for the Triangle to Hwy 17 cooridor.....heavy snow and winds gusting to the mid 30's well inland....please let it play out like it shows....

It went from 43 to 38 in a heavy sleet shower on my lunch break, once the consistent heavier precip fires up the surface will crash, that combined with a setting sun will put most of us under the mod to heavy snow at or below 32 IMO....

WInd's pick up as the coastal gets cranking and there should still be some good rates going on...

IP/RN mix here probably 50-75% IP at times.....

Latest HRRR has 8" down here and still snowing decent at hr 18 with several more to go....starting to think 6-10" is doable would be the biggest snow here in a solid 10 years if we get 8" or more....still would feel better if the temps would crash a bit lol....still the 925/850's are going to be plenty cold once we get the heavier banding setting up it should go all snow fast and surface temps will crash.

NWS in MHX playing up the 264 corridor..... .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM Thurs...Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for much of the area, with Winter Weather Advisories continuing for the rest of Eastern NC except for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, as confidence has increased on a more widespread moderate snow event with snow totals of 4-6 inches expected generally north of the Neuse River and then spreading east to the Alligator River. With some mesoscale banding expected to develop in this area, locally heavier snow amounts of 6-10 inches are possible. Further to the south and east, initially warm temps both aloft and at the surface will limit snow totals as the changeover to snow will be delayed until 10 pm or midnight (There could be a few hour period of sleet along and south of US 70 early tonight). Still amounts of 1-2 inches are expected with some locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches possible.

Regardless of warm noses the main show will be after the low takes over off the SE coast and its going to snow and snow hard across a lot of central and eastern NC.....widespread 4-6" with higher spots seems very likely if the NAM is even half right.....

Also we have not seen a flake since Dec 10th 2018 not 2019.....in the Jan 2018 storm I had 7-8" but officially they listed like 4-5".....we had 8" in Dec 2010 for sure.

This cant be stressed enough....also this wont be as big a mixing problem as some think.....a lot of those sleet soundings in central NC are BARELY sleet soundings at all and once it flips to all snow and that coastal cranks up I doubt we see nearly as much mixing over central and south central NC as the models show....those silly NAM numbers are doable but even 60-70% of the NAM output is a monster hit....

The NAM FGEN is it should go nuts if the NAM is right...

major improvement on the 18Z Euro Ens....lots of members now showing decent event..

Yeah l got my fingers crossed this pans out......my average on the NAM the last 4 runs is around 10-15"....

Bought time....been a long long time since we had anything like that at least 10yrs....