downeastnc

Was just texting Shaggy that this might be best GFS run ever lol.......seriously looked about to smack the SE again at the end of the run too....closest run to Mar 1980 I have ever seen.....only better.

....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest.....

With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one....

Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range....

I am not sure what speed the plane is moving at when it makes these passes but at 250 mph it would takes them what 80-90 seconds to cross a 6 miles wide eye....

Crazy

Just saw a 100 mph gust there in or near Galliano according to this.... https://www.wunderground.com/weather/KGAO

I am at work now and I actually got 1-2" more at my house than here (about 10 miles north of my house) but ground still covered, the wind was from behind the building so the ground closest to building was protected

Gonna call it 5" after compaction...

Flakes trying to get bigger and rates are still high if I had quarter size flakes this would be piling up fast...

My front porch a hr ago.....need them flakes bigger....

will probably see some ground truth on this couplet from 2-3am last night.....PGV gusted to 43 with the squall, sounded way worse lol, I expected half the trees around my house to be on the ground when the sun came up.

If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC From SPC However, instability will remain rather weak from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could locally increase tornado potential across this area.

...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

this guy is ready

Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky.

Had a tor warned cell pass north of me by 10 miles or so, couplet was decent but not hearing any reports yet of ground truth, sky is insane though lots of fast moving low swirly scud etc......

Low level cape is pushing 3500-4000 over eastern NC and SE SC.....

Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC.......

Again it depends on where you are plenty of severe weather all over North Carolina today, easily verified the enhanced risk....

Maybe a CC drop with that tornado warning west of Grifton for several frames....