downeastnc

Was just texting Shaggy that this might be best GFS run ever lol.......seriously looked about to smack the SE again at the end of the run too....closest run to Mar 1980 I have ever seen.....only better.

....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest.....

With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one....

Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range....

70/60 S wind gusting 35ish

At least 6 deaths due to flood waters in NC now.... https://weather.com/news/news/2020-11-12-north-carolina-flooding-campsite-rescue-roads-bridges-washed-out

11" just east of Sims NC in WIlson Co.....lots of 8-11" totals running NE from there.

latest Euro has "Eta" redux headed for Tampa more or less.....assuming the course it was on the last few frames holds up that long

I am not sure what speed the plane is moving at when it makes these passes but at 250 mph it would takes them what 80-90 seconds to cross a 6 miles wide eye....

Crazy

Yeah literally lights out to 10's of millions of people, wind field is just stupid on this thing....and the foothills and mts gets a PRE event that dumps a foot of rain....so the center and east side gets basically a 6-10 hr long 50-70 mph wind event all the way to NE and the west side gets a foot of rain along the entire spine of the Apps.....insanely crazy run, luckily its 10 days out and a weenie run, but this storm is going to form and eventually come north....so maybe its not so far fetched after all.

oof.....

Just saw a 100 mph gust there in or near Galliano according to this.... https://www.wunderground.com/weather/KGAO

This would be a massive issue for the beaches, this wind field is the size of Texas and I imagine the waves and beach erosion would be insane on NC coast.......the GFS has been pretty consistent with this storm the last day or so but it is admittedly way out in fantasy land.....though the GFS did pretty good with the notion of there being a Delta way out in fantasy land too.

never warned, about a half mile from the parents and a 1.5 miles from me....

Yeah and for a second there I thought we were gonna get smacked around, and we kind of did for 30-45 mins I am sure we had some 60-65 mph type gust and then maybe 45 mins either side of that period we were 40-50......but it was quick 2am to 4am, I will post a few pics later I had to go to work lol.....

Lost power at 3am got it back about a hr ago.....hear some chainsaws around the neighborhood and I smelled the pines and heard several trees come down, I think the forward speed kept this thing in check, 4-5 hrs of winds like we had at peak and there would be trees down all over and everyone without power, but it was maybe 2 hrs from the first gust to 40 to the last.....peak was maybe 55-65 mph, it got legit for about 30-45 mins, when the center was almost directly to my west 20 miles or so....and then it was over with winds tapering off to barely TS force again in gust....

Best guess based on obs so far .....

Geez.....these are the wind clown maps and are probably overdone 10% or so....still lights out eastern half of NC..... ICON Euro Ukie

Ukie says hi....

Euro/GFS say it will be a bit windy next week when the big storm rides the Apps with the big high offshore, these are always over done but even if you knock off `15-20 mph from these numbers that still puts us in a wind advisory criteria day with gust to 50ish.....

Ukie similar as well.....