downeastnc

Ukie....and this is 10:1 probably do better than that even.....

Need to see this slow down just a little bit more, the 6Z GFS spitting out insane ratios for PGV....we get 3" in 3 hrs with .11" QPF....just a few more hrs of that and we would be golden.... assuming of course the GFS has this right....the GFS is so close to this being a much bigger deal. 220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0

While this sucks for a lot of people this is exactly what we down here in eastern NC like to see in this range.....better cold and not phased and hope for a late bloomer, than watching it amp up and cut and give us rain again....its how we snow big, a lot can still change between now and Friday, and the NAM is all alone right now with this big of a whiff.

Need that SN/IP line to drift another 50 miles south to really make me feel safe....insane 22 at the surface......

The models had Florence turning out well east of Bermuda.....every system is different but yeah models were very wrong with Florence even up to landfall there were fairly significant changes.....

This chaser looks to be trying to drive into the eye from Houma

HRRR bullish on winds. usually I take these maps with a grain of salt but with the high offshore packing the gradient and dry air working in around the S and SE side who knows...maybe some 40-50 mph gust are possible for 3-4 hrs tomorrow....

Yeah might get some gust into the low 40's certainly nothing to extreme...nice that it seems to peak between 4-9 tomorrow afternoon and not 12-4 am like usual.

Well then

70/63 at PGV.....gonna be interesting to see how it plays out today.....had some filtered sun a hr ago back to overcast.....sat looks like some more filtered sun possible in a hr or two around peak heating.....

Looks like EF2-3 type damage.....some fairly new homes look to be wiped to the foundation almost....

This is pretty darn good agreement....

Yeah this is a insane panel.....with that low strength and placement you wouldnt think the warm nose is that strong.....its showing 23/24 IMBY with the snow/rain line slam back in the mts.....

18Z Icon

Right we need the PV to either dive on down and give us a monster snow storm or hang up.....some runs have had epic ice storms with temps in the single digits and teens for DAYS afterwards which would be certainly life threatening with widespread power outages, and with that kind of bitter cold it would be very difficult for crews to begin to repair the damage....

Thats my hope, the chances the models have the location and timing of the S/W's in this range given the setup is pretty low and there is going to be a lot of changes run to run, it wont be till Tues/Wed once the players are better sampled modeled that we get a real idea....so while the monster big dog seems much less likely on most runs the potential for it to come back is certainly there.

If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back.....

Seems like that was the case fairly close to the event as well, inside of 72 hrs either the Euro or the NAM was pasting us still.....was so frustrating watching heavy sleet for hours knowing it was costing me a lot of potential snow.

Much better than it was looking at 12Z...nice improvement....

Was just texting Shaggy that this might be best GFS run ever lol.......seriously looked about to smack the SE again at the end of the run too....closest run to Mar 1980 I have ever seen.....only better.

....hopefully the Euro does tick north some.....but overall you wouldnt think there is much risk of a NW trend with a 1050ishmb high building into the upper midwest.....

With a big high like that you got a better chance of a SE trend than a NW one....

Got to take notice when these two agree like this in this range....