downeastnc

I think that is Euro output from 12Z today maybe.....thought it was 00Z but that was further SW

What back and forth......the updates don't include where the extent of hurricane and TS force winds are....the storm will weaken, so that the Friday plot shows TS over RDU.....but it will be a major cane still over interior NC and depending on the wind field ( which will be large ) there could easily be strong winds well inland....I would think gust to hurricane force in the Triangle is probably likely maybe even significant hurricane gust especially on the east side...... which to me is 90+ mph, once the winds get 90-100+ its more than just trees coming down....

The FV3 version of the GFS is doing much better I think at least as far as being closer to the other models......the GFS is latched on to that stall off Hattersa then loop back in scenario....it will come around tomorrow......

Another thing to consider is that Flo will most likely be a steady state hurricane with massive CDO/eyewall. The timing of the ERC's could very well be the difference between a Cat 3 or 4....its not your typical sloppy 3/4 eye while the storm is shearing out cane we typically see...this means it will be able to hold up better when in comes inland and potentially bring some 100-120 mph wind gust pretty far inland, like RDU far....certainly farther than any storm since Hazel....especially along and north and east of center. Add the strong ridge building back in the north and there could be winds gusting 40-50 over eastern NC for a couple of days... This is practically the worst case scenario cane for east central NC.... its one I honestly never thought I would actually see play out.....hopefully I still don't.

Yeah the river 3/4 of a mile from my house has 6 ft if surge on it on the surge map with a Cat 4 lol, luckily this is the high side and we don't flood.....this is 20 miles up the river from Washington even.

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

you would expect to see the NHC track at 5pm to not move or shift a tad bit north....I would also expect the inland plots to come east a bit....

It almost has to go north the models are really locking in on ILM to MHX in this range and I suspect if there is a trend from here it will be east not west.....

yep has been for the last 2 days.....models have never been more than just east of Hatteras and the SC/NC border for several days now....its kinda remarkable actually how clustered overall the models have been.....remember Lookout to Cape Fear is only 90 miles and Hatteras is another 30 so for all the models to more or less be in a 120 mile stretch of coast for this long is rare thing.

Better chance this misses east than hits SC IMO....only the Euro and HWRF are left of the current NHC track every other model is right......THE FV3/Ukie track is hard to argue and right where the consensus is.....

Ukie rough run for I 95 and would pretty much be worse cane hit ever for Emerald Isle

Pretty sure this would be the farthest north if she gets there.....

Well if the GFS is right the eye will go right over me..........at noon..........on Monday lol.

Pretty big NW wobble currently......

Its all about the blend.......some models will be to far right, some will be to far left, that's why the NHC etc use a consensus and go down more pr less down the middle....so far the FV3 has been pretty good at being in the middle of the spread

where did you get 12Z alreadyy weather.us and meteo havent updated for me yet

Yeah if there is a bigger turn north than modeled it wont probably show up till very late in the game....which is why hurricanes suck.....though in this range you expect smaller corrections....I expect the outliers to meet in the middle so I still say Kure Beach up to Emerald Isle is still IMO the best bet for landfall....

A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now...

Depends on where they live, if they have a well built home away from water with no trees near the house then they will be ok, though they may have to deal with a extended period of no water/power etc....also if they have medical needs etc they may want to leave.....if they live in flood prone areas of have tons of trees around the house then they need to leave. Hotels and such will fill up if they havent already in all the inland towns....most people inland die from trees falling on them in homes or vehicles and trying to cross flooded roadways....

Yeah a Cape Lookout landfall moving NW would put the absolute worse conditions over very low populated areas...versus ILM to Emerald Isle which is the opposite....

Thats the WPC consensus forecast, not Brad P's....they like the NHC blend all the tracks to get the most likely path which currently is apparently landfall over Jacksonville then up to around Wilson then Roanoke Rapids....very likely this is what happens based on current modeling....

Euro way off on intensity with its OP runs which is probably why its so south and flat compared to the others....

The blend is still the way to go.....the Euro is the southern outlier the GFS is the eastern outlier ( ICON is if we count it ) the Ukie and FV3 and CMC are all in between......so this means ILM to maybe MHX is the sweet spot. The angle is also pretty different with the Euro flat and almost WNW, where as the others weaken the ridge a bit more and are more NW...if the Ukie is similar at 12Z today to its 00Z run last night then I think the Euro will be the one to adjust closer to the others. It would end up looking like a Fran track or even right up 95 if you blended them all together.....with a stall somewhere around the NC/VA border in central NC, south central VA

GFS landfall Cape Lookout/Drum inlet then inland....honestly thats the best place for a Cat 4 to come in...least populated section of OBX and IBX there is....

yeah the almost west motion at landfall some models have it pretty odd..totally possible but if its slowing down like the NHC has usually that means its turning north, I mean it wouldnt slow down to turn more west right? West would mean more ridging and should maintain the speed not slow it down....or maybe I am just overthinking it. The ICON which was the last hold out with the OTS solution came back to a landfall and stall this run though its out over the sounds/IBX.....