downeastnc

From the NHC at 8 pm the AVERAGE movement the last 6 hrs has been NW..... LOCATION...33.9N 76.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Yeah nice little north wobble, eye is around 40 miles and its getting stronger and the IR looks much better lets see what she does, I still think there is a chance she powers in around J'ville to Swansboro before heading W then WSW...a few more hrs of this motion and she will be totally north of the NHC landfall plot....

The eye is rather large ( well the inner one ) and if it landfalls at Topsail the north eyewall will be near Swansboro/Emerald Isle and the southern eyewall will be Wrightsville/ILM.....thats nuts...if she stays more west from there interior NC gonna get widespread hurricane force gust....

Also tornado threat over eastern NC is going to be high the next 6-12 hrs as the outer bands get inland....tornado watch just issued for us far east counties this will extend inland later I am sure....

she has a very well defined eyewall man......look at radar..... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

She wont spin up to much more probably she is to damn big but the hurricane force winds extend well out to the N and NE of the center and if she does stay 20-25 miles north of track and comes in closer to Jville/Swansboro and moves more west and less WSW after landfall she is gonna be able to really get that wind field deep into eastern and central NC, places like the Triangle that might be expecting less could get more this way.....her speed will help limit it somewhat, the flip side is your liable to have winds well into hurricane force for a long time....

Bet the NHC wished she would stop riding the very northern edge of the cone like she is......

GFS landfalls same spot as 18Z...heads inland over SE NC....then turns SW towards SC.....takes it a day to do that though and its onshore the entire time.....gonna be a monster rain maker though....travels less than 150 miles in 36 hrs......all of it spent over SE NC....

ICON landfall plot right on mouth of New River.....maybe 20-30 miles north of official NHC track...but it goes more west inland and doesnt take a immediate SW turn and honestly this seems more realistic since it doesnt stall the turn SW will be more subtle.....

ICON pounding Triangle to the coast....

Right 120 is just as likely as 100 at this point...the shear is backing off some and she has a solid core and 24ish hrs left over bathwater..... ICON pretty much the same has landfall up over Jville/Swansboro

Sounds like they bumped the track north a touch but not much bring it in maybe 15-20 miles north of Cape Fear havent seen the graphic yet...

Outflow looks to be improving on he south side as she gets away from that TUTT.....and she has fired storm all around the center, with 18-24 hrs to go who knows what she will do...she could still get 120-130 again....still 110-120 seems more likely just based on climo.

On her current heading she will go right into Drum Inlet EAST of Cape Lookout.....she is still moving NW at a good clip as well....its gonna take a big slowdown or sharper turn to get her were NHC has her hitting....again though being NE of track now doesnt mean she wont correct with a quicker turn etc....but it also makes you wonder if the models like HMON/GFS/CMC etc that all jumped up to a J'ville to MHX landfall moving west and then more inland over interior eastern NC might be on to something.....if the Euro/Ukie/FV3 dont make a decent move north at 00Z then I think the NHC has it nailed but they are sweating that NE of track trend.....the 00Z track guidence suggest they wont move much at all....doesnt mean they are right either though.

She is already looking better, by this time tomorrow she could easily be a 120-130 mph storm again....intensity forecasting is a crap shoot....but she hasa solid large well defined rotation and could easily go off if she can get in somewhat better conditions which appears to be the case.....of more concern is the actual track she takes.....she has been NE of the NHC track by quite a bit all day....if she does end up making landfall up further north it changes things for me and you considerably.

Yeah she has tried all day.....still 24 hrs till landfall at least. She is doing work on the south side and looks a bit better..and its just odd watching a cane approach NC like this expecting it to hit....so use to them being south of ILM headed north not out east headed NW...that ridge better break down soon or she is going to come on in between ILM and MHX....

She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together.....

HMON with a 50 mile jump north with landfall....puts Bogue Banks in the north eyewall then moves west into Swansboro/Jville,....was just north of Cape Fear last run

Per the wind maps on Weather.us a lot of 60+ mph winds...she has a huge wind field if accurate it gets strong TS gust into the Triangle, this is why people need to stay focused.....not to mention that she still keeps on trucking NW away from the NHC track she could end up here sooner and north of where the forecast is now.....there isnt nearly as much stall either she keeps it moving though she does it slowly...still it makes more sense than sitting and spinning right on the coast the going SW to Charleston offshore....lots of people with no power this run

18Z GFS solid landfall this time....center gets inland NW of ILM 50 miles at least slowly drifting WSW....

So they have a plane sampling the ridge NE of Flo....that data would be in the model runs right? If not at 18Z then by 00Z for sure....

Looks like they dont think the short term track error matters downstream.... Therefore, only a slight eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36 hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

CMC at 12Z basically runs the what if the stall/turn is 75-100 miles later scenario.....this is still very plausible and with the way she is booking it NW right now the CMC may be leading the pack on a north inland correction.....bottom line this would put central, and inland eastern NC in legit hurricane conditions....CMC drifts WSW from here.....but this is the NW extent the center makes it this run. Not saying this is going to happen just saying this option is still very much on the table depending on the trough and ridge timing etc....

The tornado threat will also be rather high in central and eastern NC especially with a stalling system as the outer bands more prone to tornados will be constant....imagine there will be tons coming on off the ocean over the OBX as well....