downeastnc

Sure most models still bring the center up to just off SE NC.....again 50-100 miles will make a huge difference on things for a lot of us, and the models could easily be wrong about the actual stall spot. The models almost all have the storm headed right for MHX then stall it out in Onslow Bay just NE of ILM, then it sits for a bit then it heads SW, it stops about 50-100 miles south of us so any change in that point N would be obviously change our impact... it would not take much error for it to be the difference between 40-70 mph gust and 8-10" of rain and 70-100 mph gust and 10-20" of rain here..or if the SW motions is more W after the stall that would keep us in the heavier winds and rain longer...the current model runs still put us within 100 miles of the center on the N and NE side so winds gusting 50-70 would still be likely and with the stall it could be a long duration span with winds hitting 50-70 so comparable to Irene or Matthew in that regard, also though if the stall happens 50-100 miles sooner and we get almost nothing here.....this approach angle and slowing down will make it nerve wracking for the coast and eitehr way Thur-Sat is going to be a long 48 hrs for a lot of us....so I would be cautiously optimistic that we wont see much more than 40-60 mph gust and 10" of rain.

Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck.

This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....

For what its worth the ICON is sticking to its guns getting up to Cape Lookout/MHX again at 00Z......its going to sit over Bogue Banks for a bit then move W inland like the previous run.....very similar to the Ukie 12Z run as well.

This is where I am, I too think its gonna dump in somewhere between ILM and J'ville, though if the eye is big enough it might be big enough to cover that whole stretch.....it will move WNW inland a bit then stall and then move more NNW and eventually to NNE......and probably spend way to much time over central and eastern NC....there is still around 54 hrs before landfall and there will be another north trend in the models.....

I suspect they drop it just over or just north of ILM.....

Also keep in mind that where she stops is very dependent on several things and the models could easily be off on those things by 100-150 miles in this range and that will have major implications obviously....this is probably why the NHC is in no hurry to majorly change its forecast track.....

Interesting maybe this stall business will vanish by tomorrow's run.....or at least just be a slowdown....

Hey post me up a link to those TAB outputs.....

Yeah use the NWS not WRAL.....they have models they use and it changes every run...if the models drop the stall and go back to a better hit inland on NC they will have to change there maps the NWS wont lol....

The winds aloft will still be screaming though at 850 and it wont be that unusual for them to mix down so you can have sustained 30 mph winds and still gust way up to 60-80....its common with well organized landfalling storms.....better you expect 100 and get 50 than expect 50 and get 100....

yep that plus the length of time is stalls, the SW track, the loops etc should all be taken with a large grain of salt.....more realistic IMO would be a slow crawl WNW/NW onshore like the Ukie and Icon have....

18Z Icon was very similar to the 12Z Ukie landfall over Cape Lookout then slow west drift inland then SW towards CLT.....

No way that was horrible for the beaches the thing will have a 20-30 mile wide eye the entire coast from Bogue Banks to ILM would be in extreme conditions and then the surge would push in and stay there since the storm isn't moving so the winds don't change and let the water out.....

After a few days sitting there she would be a half a storm probably, no where near the pressures the GFS has between land interaction and upwelling she would be dying quickly.....the beaches though and the sounds would have been stuck in a surge tide for DAYS......

the stalling crap is the worst as it makes it hard to know what to expect .....timing is everything if that stall happens 50-150 miles later she plows right on in as a Cat 3/4 and gets well inland.....I mean do the models really have the skill to be that precise with the timing of the stall?

stalling out east of ILM and south of Lookout....would be so bad for the beaches....

Its pretty darn east so far thru 42 gonna have to stall and take a real hard left to get ILM.....

Yeah the angle is interesting, and the eye is going to be huge so that pretty much puts Emerald Isle to Topsail under the gun.....and that's why even small changes will matter to many of us.....if it goes 50 miles further north before the turn then that a big deal for me....if it turns 50 miles sooner that would put Myrtle/ILM much more in play...there will be no way the models can get that right so it will be now casting time as the eye gets inshore....

Sometimes the models wanna do these stall or loops and they just get it wrong.....remember this gem during Matthew, where for several days the models had him looping back the Bahamas then 24 hrs out they dropped it and by 8am Sun he was just east of Hatteras moving NE OTS...that a big track change for inside of 24 hrs lol......not saying that's the case here at all but I always get cautious when they do stalls/loops and course reverses etc....

no.....the majority of models all landfall on or north of ILM

That was a decent NE jump at 48 hrs...honestly surprised me thought it might be going to end up Jacksonville/MHX

Euro a good bit east at 48......close to the 12Z ukie track

Ukie landfall and two plots 12hrs or so apart after landfall...... 12 hrs after landfall 24 hrs after landfall

Ukie hardly moves right after landfall...this would be worse IBX sound/river surge ever if it verifies....