downeastnc
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Everything posted by downeastnc
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Now this is cold....Staples WI right now.... wind chill -64 lol eff that..... Fair -33°F -36°C Humidity 60% Wind Speed NW 18 G 23 mph Barometer 30.14 in Dewpoint -42°F (-41°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill -64°F (-53°C) Last update 29 Jan 8:16 pm CST
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Yeah any other time that batch of precip would slide right up over us here in eastern NC.....instead it will stay 50-100 miles east of us......
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This is really really close to being something special....just need .25-.50" more QPF could easily end up being a fairly widespread 3-6" type event for east central NC especially east of I-95...
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12Z nam sounding is close enough that I will take my chances and this is without better rates, what we need is this thing to shift west another 100 miles.....or amp up and get that NW precip shield growth...
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06Z Rgem looks good temps in the mid 30's has the low much closer and moving more NNE has precip way further inland.....starting to think this could happen.....
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This is how it happens for us though.....hinted at in the long range, poorly modeled in the mid term then comes back in the 1-2 day range....still need some big changes in the models today, need it a bit cooler at the surface but honestly if we can get heavy enough precip we should do ok this far inland....
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temps are 35-40 at the surface....but its plenty cold aloft.....would need rates to be high enough to overcome.....light precip wont do it....
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Feb 2014 there was a sound enhanced band more or less, the snowfall was pretty widespread but the heavy band was localized, I had right at 5" with that one....
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Depends on where you live I suppose the Euro was great for all of us eastern SC/NC folks.......
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I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......
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RAH put out a good map that shows what kind of low and track do well for NC.....
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Yeah that's in MBY so yeah not happening.....every year we get a couple of runs that look like 1980 or 1973 they never happen......still with the setup something sort of like this is certainly on the table somewhere in the SE....
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Red Sox won the WS and now the Pats are SB bound.....got a lot of folks to hit up at work tomorrow that talked a lot of smack, going to be a good day.
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Generally for us in eastern NC anyways it seems like the models never really pick up on the threat in a meaningful way until its 5-7 days out.....there is potential in the models after Jan 20th.
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Yeah very rare....1980 was ZR/sleet to start with temps in the mid 30's before temps crashed into the teens with SN+........the 12Z GFS takes PGV from 43 and rain to 23 and heavy sleet/snow in one frame. Would indeed be absolutely insane to see a 20 degree temp drop in 6 hrs after precip started.....FV3 even more ridiculous temp of 60 to low 20's in 6 hrs....I would give anything to see this actually happen.... HR
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ULL are fun but frustrating....models tend to do pretty badly with them as far as how intense they can be....like several have mentioned some big snows have happened in NC due to a ULL dropping in like this.....you just never know what they will do for sure. No one should expect more than say 1-2" but there could easily be a few spots that win out and get over that.....
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I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....
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The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....
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GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today
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Thats the thing, a few degrees one way or the other is gonna be huge for many people....even down my way a few degrees colder aloft and we could get several inches or more of snow/sleet. The flip side to that though is a few degrees warmer aloft and its sleet on top of above freezing surface temps well inland.....and all rain for us eastern folks. Need the suppressed track to win out, can not have the low right off the coast that never works out well for anyone other than the deep inland foothill areas.
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Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......
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The high placement on the last frame is classic NC snowstorm placement and the snow coverage reacts accordingly......just need the next 2-3 frames now.....
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Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us.....
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PGV is 32/18 last frame of the NAM, track kills us though need this thing to stay heading ENE the entire time that turn up the coast is gonna cause problems well inland if it happens....
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Yeah going NE up the coast from SAV is going to do bad things.....the only people that cash in on that track are the foothill/mts.....the rest of us need a later phase or better yet a slow moving OTS track with a phase well off the SE coast....that track is gonna give the Triad etc ptype issues if it pans out.
