downeastnc

I am optimistic that my snow drought ends Thurs night, might even pick up a decent 2-3" event out of it....the downside is my onion grass/weeds are at least 6" tall in spots, I hate when my weeds stick out of my nice snow covered yard.

Starting to think maybe my snow drought will end Thur night.....been awhile since I we had a decent long duration overrunning type event around here....

Nice to see both the GFS and Euro agreeing with at least the potential, would feel better if this was 4-5 days out though....still big high over eastern GL and low off the coast moving ENE is what we want.....

Getting sun here now and the wind jacking up with the mixing.....also temp went from 63 to 77 with DP in mid 60's.....

Yeah easily the worst I can remember for the Charlotte metro area in a long while....if it don't calm down soon it will end up being a big day for the entire state.....we are getting a few breaks in the clouds down here in the east.

Spartanburg [Spartanburg Co, SC] EM reports TORNADO at 9:22 AM EST -- EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ALONG WEST MAIN STREET NEAR INTERSTATE 26. TWO TRACTOR TRAILERS WERE FLIPPED AND SOME BUILDINGS ARE COLLAPSED. A DEBRIS SIGNATURE WAS OBSERVED SO LIKELY TORNADO

There is damage reports and maybe a Wal Mart got hit...so it was legit and their is ground truth confirming the CC drop....

There are several times in the last few runs where big things could happen, I think we cash in, maybe even a few times... This is so close to being a big deal for most of NC...

Yeah it will bounce around a lot I am sure.....its so far out....I think in a pattern like this that the models have trouble with all the waves....if I get a good hit here chances are it will be poorly modeled till 3-5 days out....that is typically how it happens, its very rare for a system that gives us snow in eastern NC to lock in and hold a hit in the models five or more days out.

yes please.....

Getting smashed here in eastern NC, gotta be 1-2 inches of rain in the last hr, thunder wind etc....

will probably see some ground truth on this couplet from 2-3am last night.....PGV gusted to 43 with the squall, sounded way worse lol, I expected half the trees around my house to be on the ground when the sun came up.

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

Yeah hopefully some hope, in the meantime if the NWS is right starting Friday I am about to spend 3-4 days ( at least) with my daily lows being higher than my normal daily highs...we wont be able to get under 50-53 at night in Jan for days....…..that's just sad and depressing.....I mean hell if nature is gonna do me like that at least throw in some decent thunderstorms my way.

Could be as little love for the NW foothills down to Triad on Tues......temps are warm enough it would be tough to get any real accumulations but maybe a quick slushy inch.....I am not to worried the models always suck at seeing major pattern changes so it wont surprise me at all if sometime in the next week the models suddenly shift to big cold in the east by the middle of the month....

If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC From SPC However, instability will remain rather weak from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could locally increase tornado potential across this area.

...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the southern Appalachians through northern Florida. Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and 50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially damaging wind gusts. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

this guy is ready

Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky.

Had a tor warned cell pass north of me by 10 miles or so, couplet was decent but not hearing any reports yet of ground truth, sky is insane though lots of fast moving low swirly scud etc......

Low level cape is pushing 3500-4000 over eastern NC and SE SC.....

Soundings are a bit worrisome for NC tomorrow......latest 3k NAM suggest some discrete supercells and then a few MCS type bowing segments over central and eastern NC.......

Again it depends on where you are plenty of severe weather all over North Carolina today, easily verified the enhanced risk....

Maybe a CC drop with that tornado warning west of Grifton for several frames....