downeastnc

Wonder how much impact we will see inland on this outside of rainfall.....I think tornados would be biggest threat.... I don't think there will be much in the way of wind inland, the Sun plot is directly over my house as a 50 mph storm though I doubt anyone away from the beaches see's anything over say 30-35 in gust....

I will take this.....and even after a warm up there looks to be a chance at another cooler period later this month....its not crazy to see 90's in Oct here unfortunately but overall this pattern is not bad for Sept ( at least in NC ) Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 76. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Big changes to the Euro track it now almost landfalls on Hatteras on its way to NJ......would still easily probably give hurricane conditions to the OBX.....the UKie was faster and got OTS before the blocking high slams the door the Icon and Euro do not...all have a large hurricane off the SE coast by the beginning of next week....

The trend today is to the east with 95L, the ICON and UKIE keep the storm moving N or NNW off the east coast of Florida and it sounds like the 18Z Euro took a big step in that direction.....if that is the case then this could potentially end up a stronger storm and close enough to directly impact areas still dealing with the effects of Dorian....

95L could end up being a big rain maker for parts of the SE depending on track...the UKIE/Icon seems to want to go up the east coast of Florida and bring the rain more N the Euro more NW across Florida into AL/GA the GFS is like what storm.... Euro UKIE

GFS has been running a landfall on the east coast every 2-3 runs the rest are OTS, some closer than others....by the end of this week the GFS and other models will have ran so many run's with so many slightly different track that one of them will end up right....IF this thing dodges the first weakness and gets to the SW Atl the chances of it getting close are pretty high....heck the models develop several waves on different runs we might end up with 2-3 storms at once....

Emerald Isle tornado rated 115 mph EF2...on the ground for 13 miles that pretty long given the circumstances. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR EMERALD ISLE IN CARTERET COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... Location...Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina Date...September 5th 2019 Estimated Time...902 AM - 931 AM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...115 MPH Maximum Path Width...200 yards Path Length...13 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...34.656430/-77.052352 Ending lat/Lon...34.795735/-77.215384 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed a tornado near Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina on September 5th 2019. A waterspout near Bogue Inlet Pier came onshore as a tornado near Janell Ln., Boardwalk RV Park and Salty Pirate Waterpark in Emerald Isle. The waterspout was quite large when it was offshore and was viewed by the Bogue Inlet Pier web cam courtesy of Surfline. The most intense damage was found here. On Janell Lane, a section of a metal roof was removed on one side of a house that was in the opposite direction of the storm motion. On the other side of the house, with the storm motion, large sections of the metal roof were removed with similar damage to a house next door. As the path crossed into the RV park, numerous RV style homes were tossed and rolled more than 30 feet, ripping out ground anchors that strapped them down. In the middle of the path, where the winds were strongest, numerous RV type homes suffered complete destruction. Based on the complete destruction of the homes, along with the loss of substantial sections of a metal roof, which usually have a higher wind rating, damage was consistent with that of an EF 2 tornado or around 115 MPH. The path continued to the north northwest where more damage was found to the Salty Pirate Waterpark and continued across Highway 58 (Emerald Drive) where several homes were damaged along W Harbor Trail and Sunrise Ct. The tornado then moved over the Bogue Sound, becoming a waterspout again. Eyewitness accounts indicate that a funnel may have persisted, but no apparent tornado damage was found in Cedar Point. Several videos from members of the public conclusively show that the funnel cloud returned to the surface in the form of a waterspout as it crossed over the lower White Oak River. The waterspout continued for several minutes northwestward up the White Oak River before once again coming ashore as a tornado and causing major roof damage to a home on Watersedge Cir. and minor damage to several other structures in the Holland Point Dr. area. The tornado then tracked through mostly forested and undeveloped land for approximately 6 miles before heavily damaging a farm and residential property on Kidd Ln. in Maysville. Based on eyewitness accounts, the funnel cloud may have persisted for several more miles, but the lack of identifiable tornado damage indicates that the end of the tornado path was this location on Kidd Ln. in southern Maysville.

Gusting 45 here now, first power flickers gonna be a long night....

Getting regular gust into the 30's now, a lot more steady wind between squalls.....worried about that big one rotating in between Lookout and Hatteras as it pushes north its the one that has producing all the tornadic supercells...they are just lined up out there...

Yeah he is in the New Bern area...

TOG around New Bern a few mins ago...actually hit parts of downtown New Bern looks like light damage mostly trees and such

Big story so far is the tornados, we have had reports of several in the area, many are not warned in time as they form and lift in a matter of a minute or two...they will extend and shift the watch a bit as the old one runs out... The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift north across ww636. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC - Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636, continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.

Watching the radar loop from ILM and he is moving pretty much dead on NNE and if he does not turn quite a bit he is going to at the very least skirt Cape Fear...that Sat loop is deceiving try running ILM radar loop etc he may have bumped east a hair but overall he is still NNE or NE at best.....speeding up a bit too....

Had a CC drop on it so very likely a brief TOG with it..... Buoy east of Charleston just finally got back into the south side circulation 09 05 2:20 pm WNW 62.2 85.5 - - - - 28.77 - 75.7 82.6 75.7 - - - 09 05 2:10 pm WNW 64.1 85.5 - - - - 28.70 - 75.6 82.6 75.6 - -

I do not know what to make of all the models with the west side wind max they form overnight over my neck of the woods....a lot of models have a band of 40-50 sustained gusting to 60-80 mph forming over the coastal plains as the center gets out over the Pamlico Sound...I would be right in the middle of it....and well a few gust of 50-60 is one thing 4-5 hrs of gust well into the 70's is something else all together.... HRRR shows it, all the models have something very similar to this....

Getting my first squalls, lower cloud deck starting to move like I got a hurricane coming....gonna need a tor warning on that cell approaching Vanceboro luckily it stays south of me

If it looks to take the track the NAM just ran which is similar to the Ukie/Euro/ICON etc then this board will be hopping tomorrow as a potential strong Cat 2 or even Cat 3 bears down on MHX and then across the IBX to Nags Head....thats would be a big hit from the Triangle to the coast.

Had a killer sunset as the sun got under the cirrus blow off from Dorian...

Be interesting to see what the NHC does with this drop finding 120 mph at the surface....

18Z Euro track

3K NAM holds inland track big winds as well....though these values are probably overdone 10-15 knts....most of eastern NC gusting to hurricane force or better.

UKIE hold the MHX to Pamlico sound to Hatteras track.....pressures in the mid 950's

ICON ticked east 20 miles still crosses Lookout to Hatteras, GFS is east as well never hitting land and staying a good 20-30 miles off the OBX....

The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any...