downeastnc

Those kind of winds though are limited to a small area, maybe 10-15 miles thick in the inner eyewall...as bad as this storm is hurricane force winds only extend out 40-50 miles from the center.....

ICON finally caved to the Euro/GFS with the turn off Fl and movement up the east coast offshore.....then it does this..... 12Z GFS also hits this looks like mid to late Thursday so 4 days from now....starting to think I might get some decent winds here luckily it looks Cat1 weak Cat 2 at worse....

There is no signs of a ERC happening anytime soon, the storm is pretty annular so i wouldn't think one would happen in the next 12-24 hrs but you never know.....pressure down to 910 or so once the winds catch up this will be the strongest ATL hurricane ever recorded of there is a plane out to sample it when it peaks.

GFS back to a NC hit...at least for this run

The 120 hr plot of the Euro/GFS/GFS legacy are pretty clustered....if they all wrong they are all wrong together....

The real difference will be speed, typically they slow down to turn as sharp as the models have Dorian doing.....if the ridge erodes too fast it will stall and then move north once the western ridge builds in, there will also be a ridge forming to his east combined this will get him moving north....now if the ridge he is under now is a bit stronger and the ridge out west a bit faster the almost stall wont happen or last as long.....those runs were he does not slow as much are the ones that end up over eastern NC, faster means further north before the NE turn....if he sits in the north Bahamas for 24-36 hrs before moving north then its more likely he wont be able to get far enough north to get onshore before moving east, then again if the ridge to his east is taller then he wont be able to turn east as soon....these are all things that will determine where he ends up going and the models do not have the skill to get that right down to 50-100 miles in the 4-5 day range....this will come down to Monday, if by Monday the models all still have him hitting or just off the coast of SC/NC then chances are we have to deal with a hit at least a near enough miss to bring strong TS conditions on the coast....if not actual hurricane conditions even inland....it would take the models all going well OTS 150 miles off the coast for me to buy into the its a miss scenario before then. Kinda like snow storms, once they trend NW of you they rarely trend back S, same with canes once they are modeled to miss well east they almost never trend back west.... Even if its suppose to come into SC/NC in the 24-48 hr time frame those little impossible to model wobbles etc in the last 12-24 hrs can really move the LF point around...

Yep, I try not to look beyond 3 days ( but its tough to ignore a model that has a hurricane in your backyard in the 5 day range ).....I look at the models and see where they have it in 3 days and if they are all fairly close then its a good bet it will be within 50-100 miles of that point....so I am confident the storm will be somewhere off the middle of Florida coast by around 75-100 miles 3 days from now......it is way beyond the capabilities of modeling to get the timing of the trough/ridge interaction correct over the country for mid next week to determine the hurricanes track 50 miles one way or the other and those 50 miles make a big damn difference between a track up over inland eastern SC/NC and a track out over or just off the OBX. So it just wait and see....

Rainfall looks manageable on most models runs they have 6-10" maybe 12" along the coast,obviously a trend to a stall over us would be worse, it would take a Floyd/Bertha track to bring winds inland to really impact the bigger cities inland with anything more than 40-60 mph gust and that's just east of I-95...the OBX are in for a ride regardless unless this thing REALLY goes east......all of this is of course dependent on the strength and organization of the storm....assuming the models are right this will only be a Cat 1-2 moving at a pretty average speed. Irene was bad because it lasted soooooo long we had wind gust 50+ reported at PGV for 16 straight hrs....so even though winds peaked around 70-75 in gust here we had them for hrs and hrs...on the typical weak side to boot. Had Irene been moving even 10 mph it would have been much less of a impact wind and surge wise. Its going to be a long long long 5 days if the models dont all jump to a OTS solution by the end of the weekend....and then even as the storm approaches the Carolina's there is always those last second little wobbles and turns that make no sense that models miss...

Once he passes 75W there has to be a turn to the NE at some point to miss land...the good news is we have several days before its even suppose to turn much less get up this way we are talking next Thur at the earliest unless the models really speed up

Still so far out I am skeptical/optimistic, the issues for us are the turn keeps happening farther east this keeps the storm further away from land and this should lead to a stronger storm up the coast. One saving grace with earlier runs was IF it does end up in NC the track was right on or just off the coast this would weaken the storm quite a bit, the further east it stays the less chance it weakens as much. The upside is the further east it is the more likely it is to turn OTS and miss all together. The thing to watch now is the energy in the mid west the models hint at that could capture Dorian or a significant increase in timing and less of a slowdown when/if it turns which would allow Dorian to get farther north ( onshore NC ) before kicking out....

GFS was a smack down for NC..pretty much a Floyd track.... right over my house pretty much...I am sure it will only change 100 more times between now and then, though this run was much faster allowing it to make landfall before getting kicked OTS....

This could end up being a fairly decent miss, seems odd the models had the ridge so overdone in the short range though....still a lot to worry about, that timing on the turn, hell does it actually turn, how far off the coast it rides, does it get further N and W and come into SC or NC etc....just yesterday we were pretty sure S Florida was screwed and now we are talking OTS being possible if not likely, I mean hell if the models were that wrong yesterday how much faith do we have in them for 5 days from now lol.

IF you blend the Euro and GFS you get a very Floyd like track.....

Yeah bad day at the beach but overall that run was very Matthew like...the real questions for us in NC now is if this misses Florida is it going to get east fast enough to clear NC,

Seems like we are getting 500 yr floods every year lately lol.....the rivers are low right now though and can handle quite a bit of rain, flash flooding would be a major issue and all the major eastern rivers would go to flood stage with totals like that its just a question of how high.

This GFS run would actually be a fairly big deal for NC, at the very least tons of rain, depending on how healthy to core was that 24 hrs it spends off the coast before hitting NC again might be enough to get it back to a strong TS/weak cane even....

Yeah pretty much same track as 00Z Euro last night so far.....if we can get another 50-100 miles east then Florida will be spared a major disaster.....ridging might keep the GFS farther west and not turnout the system as fast as earlier runs though from GA north.....

That north turn is nuts, 75 miles one way or the other in the timing of that turn has huge implications for Florida and the Carolina's...

So after moving more SW from 72 to 120 on the 12Z Euro we actually end up east of the 00Z last night from there along the Florida coast and instead of inland up the middle of the state the storm now rides just off or half on the coast.....the run from GA north is similar as well with it a bit more inland over SC/NC...not exactly making me feel like we in the Carolina's are out of the woods, a few more little shifts east like that and its first landfall will be Charleston to ILM somewhere....

I would think based on the latest Euro ensembles something kinda Ireneish, especially with the slow forward speed.....Irene was a iron cast bitch for us as she crawled up, PGV record a 50 mph or better gust 16 hrs in a row and we had hurricane force gust for 8-10 hrs...it was a mess.

Euro went east, now no longer goes into the GOM at all, hits about the same spot in S Florida as the 12Z but then rides right up the middle of Florida then hugs the coast just inland all the way to Hatteras...so the GA and Carolina folks just took a step back closer to being in play for a landfall or more than just rain....a shift 75-100 miles east of the latest Euro would be Matthew/Floyd type track....

IF this is anything like the last few years we will see the models in good agreement until around Friday then all of a sudden we will start seeing several camps form in the ensembles of the Euro and GFS adding a ton of uncertainty in the final track......well at least that is what would happen if this was locked in on NC in this range.....

Sure I was more talking about how both storms had center jumps north in the same area with the same general strength and organization.....latest GFS run not good for NC but it is a week out.....still looking like eastern and coastal NC might be in play though....

Irene back in 2011 had similar jumps north in center location and the result was models shifting up the coast.....todays trends have certainly increased the chances of a more direct impact from Dorian in the Carolinas and GA......

looking rather good the last 4-5 hrs......