downeastnc

Most models now have higher QPF just offshore, if the current trend can just keep it up by Tues this could be decent here. .3-.5" QPF would make this a nice little end to winter.....

No worries CMC says just wait till Sat lol....the GFS's are kinda close Sat too lol...winter is such a friggen tease here at the end....

Next Tues/Wed is the last grasp at straws for the winter, I am still kinda optimistic it would not take much of a NW trend to put eastern NC in play, be a nice payoff since we got blanked all winter ( we did get 4" in the early Dec storm but it was gone in a few hrs after we went to heavy rain )....... after that it looks like we might actually have a warm March which means storms, its been a long time since NC has had any real severe season in the spring.....obviously 2011 was terrible but since then it seems March-May has been cool and storms hard to come by.

Yeah the Ohio Valley folks gotta be hating that trend lol....significantly further south at 00Z tonight versus 12Z today probably isn't anything to get to excited about but if it went any further SE then parts of NC could be back in play.....be interesting to see if the Euro moves any tonight.....for what it is worth the CMC also shifted 100 miles or more SE on the 00Z run tonight versus the 12Z today... 12Z low in the NC mts to off Delmarva 00Z Charleston to off Lookout to off Cape Cod

It right where we want it, better to far east than to far west....I am a bit bias as it takes a lot less NW trend for me to cash in than for folks further inland....honestly I am fine with it staying suppressed until Sunday night, then make 3 or 4 jumps over a day or so. I get very wary of snow maps showing a lot of snow over MBY more than a day or two out as they always trend away....I want it trending to me that last 24-36 hrs......so I hope this thing stays suppressed for 4 more days at least on the models.

Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably.....

At this point its gonna change so much run to run its kind of hard to say if there is even really two definite waves....the sad thing is we probably are going to be dealing with a lot of inconsistency till at least Friday in the models. In a way though IMO its almost better to not have the models run after run showing a big snowstorm in this range only to have it go bust down the stretch. I would rather it be borderline and trend to the good in the last few days to keep expectations down. That said I am strangely optimistic that this one is going to bring the goods, after the lousy winter in general this seems like just the thing mother nature would do......

Lots of models trending badly today but I would not get to worried just yet, hell the 18Z GFS just ran it suppressed with hardly any precip over NC this time around.....this is probably going to be one of those cases where we have to wait till all the players are being well sampled for the models to lock it in. The trend today was not encouraging but with 6-7 days to go a lot can change. I wouldnt throw in the towel just yet heck I wouldnt even pick it up.....

GFS has a nice little secondary hit Wed, especially in central and eastern NC as a low bombs well offshore.....all in all still a good hit for NC 3-6" for most everyone.....also decent for northern 3rd of SC....

The 00Z Euro had 33 out of 50 ens members showing at least a trace or more IMBY......with 8-10 being warning criteria events.....several of those are monsters for the whole state.....sure would be nice to get hammered Sun-Tues then by in the md 60's by the weekend. Still this storm is a week away and well chances are by the time next week gets here this thing will be 50-60 and rain....

This is the control run and there were still at least 10 ens with warning criteria events in MBY and over half the ens had a trace or better

I wouldn't put to much stock in any individual snow map in this range they are going to be all over the place the next 3-4 days.....personally if this thing is going to trend away or get to warm etc I need it to go ahead and do that now....what will suck is it showing significant snow till 72 hrs out then trending away that would be typical though.

I guarantee that snow map and Euro solution is gonna change many times over the next 6-10 days.....same with the GFS, no point in worrying about where a R/S line might setup in this range, hell I am happy just to see a storm.....lets just hope the models keep slamming that cold in here, thats the key, we need good cold in place and reinforcements to keep the storm track to the south.

Really its right where we want it in this time frame, weak and suppressed....that last thing you want this far out is to be the bullseye, especially if you live in central or eastern NC....Euro had 9-10 warning criteria panels for central and eastern NC.....like this one, just need it to shift another 75 miles SE

Video from Columbus MS looks pretty bad

James Spann saying debris up to 14k.......

There is a tornado doing damage in and around Columbus, very strong TDS now.....

TDS over Columbus, MS .....

GFS is just suppressed which is kinda where you want it this far out....really need the Euro to pick up on it though to think this is gonna be a legit threat

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low.... Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

Late Feb and early March snows are rare here in eastern NC but the #1 and #2 snowfalls of my life have been Feb 24-25th and Mar 1-2......the fact the airmass could be very cold is interesting as the thing about Mar 1980 that sticks out as much as the insane snow totals was the fact it the temps were in the mid teens during the day while snow just dumped....obviously the chances of such a event this year are slim, but I always get a tiny bit more amped for something when it pops up for this timeframe.....

He also had a 2 months medical leave early in 2018, he also mentions "personal challenges" which many times means some kind of substance or alcohol issues maybe....either way its his business and he will be missed. Now we have lost Skip Waters and Greg is leaving so there are not many old timers left.

Master peak snow totals its all a front end thump totals.....still a big jump from the 00Z Then there is the #1 Euro Ens panel at least thats how its numbered on Weather.US that I linked before it holds the big dog and obviously has the low moving east and buries almost all of NC...would love to see this pan out....actually it didn't it looked like the above but a bit better....

Still running only have through the 13th so far.... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021212/799-w-396-n/temperature-f/20190212-1600z.html

The Euro ens have a few big hits for NC and several for VA, hopefully we see more and more ens panels showing bigger hits going forward...I am sure 99% of the NC/VA folks would lock this panel in lol.....