downeastnc
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Everything posted by downeastnc
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The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....
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GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today
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Thats the thing, a few degrees one way or the other is gonna be huge for many people....even down my way a few degrees colder aloft and we could get several inches or more of snow/sleet. The flip side to that though is a few degrees warmer aloft and its sleet on top of above freezing surface temps well inland.....and all rain for us eastern folks. Need the suppressed track to win out, can not have the low right off the coast that never works out well for anyone other than the deep inland foothill areas.
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Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......
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The high placement on the last frame is classic NC snowstorm placement and the snow coverage reacts accordingly......just need the next 2-3 frames now.....
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Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us.....
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PGV is 32/18 last frame of the NAM, track kills us though need this thing to stay heading ENE the entire time that turn up the coast is gonna cause problems well inland if it happens....
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Yeah going NE up the coast from SAV is going to do bad things.....the only people that cash in on that track are the foothill/mts.....the rest of us need a later phase or better yet a slow moving OTS track with a phase well off the SE coast....that track is gonna give the Triad etc ptype issues if it pans out.
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The one good thing is this thing cant really bust for me.....I would be sweating bullets if I was in the spots showing 12-24" every run.....we had a similar storm forecast down here a few years back, run after run of the Euro and GFS giving us 12-20" in central and eastern NC on the clown maps.....ended up with 3" of sleet......better to expect rain or a slushy 1-2" and get a foot than think your getting the big dog and ending up with tons of sleet. Seriously though if the cold can trend stronger the track should trend flatter and then snow totals would climb in central and eastern NC.....seeing some signs of that on the NAMS etc but still several days to go to hash it out.
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The jump north with the SLP at 126 on the FV3 is a killer for central and eastern NC, it it just kept ENE from the hr 120 plot the totals from RDU down my way etc would be much higher....
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Then get use to it cause this is how it is every single time a storm comes around in the SE forum........the same core group post the same way every single model run.......with gaggles of lurkers asking MBY questions......it is what it is.....
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LOL......you don't have to read the threads this is how we roll in the SE forum we are much less uptight than the folks from other forums......I suggest rolling with the punches or visiting the Sanitarium thread.....or going back to the NYC/MA forums since your in NJ.
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Yeah the whole " you never wanna be in the bullseye 7 days out yada yada yada"....those MA folks probably thinking they have this one right where they want it in the 7-8 day range......the FV-3 track is money until the low gets captured and tugged back into the sounds.........
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That tornado warning by Oxford the real deal......decent couplet there
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That onshore firehose band is pummeling areas just south of me....its raining like crazy here and the returns are greens and yellows those areas from Havelock to New Bern to Kinston are just getting hammered.....
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Everything coming in off the ocean is spinning right now....probably going to be a problem today and even tomorrow
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B roll footage of New Bern.....unreal https://wcti12.com/news/local/hurricane-damage-from-the-eyewall-destroys-north-carolina-marina
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Been more tornados spinning up this morning...there are several unwarned rotations ATM and a few that have/are warned ( they happen fast and last a frame or two at best ) as the center drifts WSW those bands will be all over eastern/central NC
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Thats pretty accurate we gusted 50-60 all night nothing to bad.....takes more than that to drop trees around here lol.....there are a few Bradford Pears mangled etc but over all we have do ok its probably on par with Matthew and considerably less than Irene wind wise....
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the big story is gonna be surge.....reports that the bridge on Back Creek in Bath is underwater.....to me that is just insane.
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The eye is 40 miles wide....the plots from recon can be misleading since the eye is so large....the plots they fix dont exactly equal the overall motion sometimes.....it would take Flo 6-8 hrs to cross a given spot.
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Apparently that was a false report....in the other thread they have the mayor saying its still up......for now....just heard my first transformer blow as I typed this.....
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Thats on the jetty at Harkers Island...they always get big wind there, I think thats the spot that got the 115 mph gust in Irene....
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Right but they wobble....its done this all afternoon....averaged out it looks like this.....
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If this somehow bust north and comes in moving more NW or WNW that would up you RDU folks winds a bit I suspect. I am 150 miles or so NW of the center getting gust to 45 already.
