downeastnc

Emerald Isle tornado rated 115 mph EF2...on the ground for 13 miles that pretty long given the circumstances. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1108 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2019 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR EMERALD ISLE IN CARTERET COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... Location...Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina Date...September 5th 2019 Estimated Time...902 AM - 931 AM EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF2 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...115 MPH Maximum Path Width...200 yards Path Length...13 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...34.656430/-77.052352 Ending lat/Lon...34.795735/-77.215384 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event(s) and publication in NWS Storm Data. ...Summary... The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City NC has confirmed a tornado near Emerald Isle in Carteret County North Carolina on September 5th 2019. A waterspout near Bogue Inlet Pier came onshore as a tornado near Janell Ln., Boardwalk RV Park and Salty Pirate Waterpark in Emerald Isle. The waterspout was quite large when it was offshore and was viewed by the Bogue Inlet Pier web cam courtesy of Surfline. The most intense damage was found here. On Janell Lane, a section of a metal roof was removed on one side of a house that was in the opposite direction of the storm motion. On the other side of the house, with the storm motion, large sections of the metal roof were removed with similar damage to a house next door. As the path crossed into the RV park, numerous RV style homes were tossed and rolled more than 30 feet, ripping out ground anchors that strapped them down. In the middle of the path, where the winds were strongest, numerous RV type homes suffered complete destruction. Based on the complete destruction of the homes, along with the loss of substantial sections of a metal roof, which usually have a higher wind rating, damage was consistent with that of an EF 2 tornado or around 115 MPH. The path continued to the north northwest where more damage was found to the Salty Pirate Waterpark and continued across Highway 58 (Emerald Drive) where several homes were damaged along W Harbor Trail and Sunrise Ct. The tornado then moved over the Bogue Sound, becoming a waterspout again. Eyewitness accounts indicate that a funnel may have persisted, but no apparent tornado damage was found in Cedar Point. Several videos from members of the public conclusively show that the funnel cloud returned to the surface in the form of a waterspout as it crossed over the lower White Oak River. The waterspout continued for several minutes northwestward up the White Oak River before once again coming ashore as a tornado and causing major roof damage to a home on Watersedge Cir. and minor damage to several other structures in the Holland Point Dr. area. The tornado then tracked through mostly forested and undeveloped land for approximately 6 miles before heavily damaging a farm and residential property on Kidd Ln. in Maysville. Based on eyewitness accounts, the funnel cloud may have persisted for several more miles, but the lack of identifiable tornado damage indicates that the end of the tornado path was this location on Kidd Ln. in southern Maysville.

Gusting 45 here now, first power flickers gonna be a long night....

Getting regular gust into the 30's now, a lot more steady wind between squalls.....worried about that big one rotating in between Lookout and Hatteras as it pushes north its the one that has producing all the tornadic supercells...they are just lined up out there...

Yeah he is in the New Bern area...

TOG around New Bern a few mins ago...actually hit parts of downtown New Bern looks like light damage mostly trees and such

Big story so far is the tornados, we have had reports of several in the area, many are not warned in time as they form and lift in a matter of a minute or two...they will extend and shift the watch a bit as the old one runs out... The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat is expected to gradually shift north across ww636. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar imagery suggests Dorian has shifted a bit east as it advances along the Carolina Coast. Since early this morning, the most notable convection has been occurring within the northeast quad of the cyclone, roughly 100 mi from Dorian's center. Lightning is noted within the band as it lifts north, well ahead of the circulation's center. Isolated supercells continue to form along a corridor, arcing from Sampson County NC - Onslow County - 32.97N/75.70W, off the NC Coast. This activity should gradually move north across the remainder of ww636, continuing well beyond 23z expiration. For these reasons a new tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening.

Watching the radar loop from ILM and he is moving pretty much dead on NNE and if he does not turn quite a bit he is going to at the very least skirt Cape Fear...that Sat loop is deceiving try running ILM radar loop etc he may have bumped east a hair but overall he is still NNE or NE at best.....speeding up a bit too....

Had a CC drop on it so very likely a brief TOG with it..... Buoy east of Charleston just finally got back into the south side circulation 09 05 2:20 pm WNW 62.2 85.5 - - - - 28.77 - 75.7 82.6 75.7 - - - 09 05 2:10 pm WNW 64.1 85.5 - - - - 28.70 - 75.6 82.6 75.6 - -

I do not know what to make of all the models with the west side wind max they form overnight over my neck of the woods....a lot of models have a band of 40-50 sustained gusting to 60-80 mph forming over the coastal plains as the center gets out over the Pamlico Sound...I would be right in the middle of it....and well a few gust of 50-60 is one thing 4-5 hrs of gust well into the 70's is something else all together.... HRRR shows it, all the models have something very similar to this....

Getting my first squalls, lower cloud deck starting to move like I got a hurricane coming....gonna need a tor warning on that cell approaching Vanceboro luckily it stays south of me

If it looks to take the track the NAM just ran which is similar to the Ukie/Euro/ICON etc then this board will be hopping tomorrow as a potential strong Cat 2 or even Cat 3 bears down on MHX and then across the IBX to Nags Head....thats would be a big hit from the Triangle to the coast.

Had a killer sunset as the sun got under the cirrus blow off from Dorian...

Be interesting to see what the NHC does with this drop finding 120 mph at the surface....

18Z Euro track

3K NAM holds inland track big winds as well....though these values are probably overdone 10-15 knts....most of eastern NC gusting to hurricane force or better.

UKIE hold the MHX to Pamlico sound to Hatteras track.....pressures in the mid 950's

ICON ticked east 20 miles still crosses Lookout to Hatteras, GFS is east as well never hitting land and staying a good 20-30 miles off the OBX....

The 3km NAM track through inland NC is rough for a lot of central and eastern NC.....if that ends up being right and the storm can stay organized and a strong Cat 2 this might be one of the worse "wind" hits NC has taken over a large area since Fran, most models already really want to put gust well into strong TS territory all the way to the Triangle...the 3k NAM has hurricane gust to the Triangle and would be lights out for NC from the Triad to the coast....

6Z Euro back to just offshore its moves more than the other models, the Ukie, Icon, Nam's all agree with the 00Z Euro track...that's the one that will be the worst for NC so we will see if they trend east today any...

Wow that 00Z Euro run was nasty for NC....direct landfall over Emerald Isle as a solid Cat 2.

NAM 925 MB winds have 50-90 mph winds 1500-2200 ft up over most of central and eastern NC how well these mix down will determine how bad the winds get.....with Matthew and Irene they mixed down very well.....

Dorian recovering nicely know, storms wrapping center and he has rebuilt his west side quickly... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_11.html

NAM 3K says hold on to your hats.....this is gonna be overdone but not sure by how much, if the storm is well organized and large it might not be that far off....

MHX NWS However, it must be stressed that even minor adjustments in the track could result in significant changes to the threats, and all residents of eastern North Carolina should be preparing for hurricane force winds and interests vulnerable to storm surge should prepare their properties and stay tuned to subsequent forecasts as surge forecasts are refined in the next day or two.

Latest Euro run still the east outlier going over Cape Lookout then just off the OBX though if it has a 50-75 miles wide eye then they would easily be in the center.....wind map has 50+ winds right on the Triangle doorstep...if the track is any further north than this ( all other models are slightly north of this ) then most of eastern NC would be strong TS winds with hurricane gust and the Triangle would at least get gust into the 50's most likely.....again it will have a lot to do with the wind field and the trough interactions on the NW side...Euro much slower though not getting here till Friday day... It just hard to say how accurate these maps are, they did great with Matthew and Flo...I think http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2019_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_11.html