downeastnc

Its a scary setup for NC over night......HRRR/NAM have cape over 1000 and STP values of 5-6 along the line of storms they show.....thats nothing but bad. The NAM sounding for central/eastern NC around the time it shows the line of storms crossing looks like this...1500 cape and SRH 400 m/s, and 1am to boot.

RAH keeping it real..... A strong upper jet will lift on the front side of trough, placing central NC in the favorable right entrance region by 06Z. Meanwhile the strong mid level jet on the order of 80-90kts projected to cross our region overnight. Close to the sfc, a stout sly flow will maintain a moist and warm atmosphere. Anticipate an active line of t-storms to cross into the western Piedmont between 01z and 04Z, reaching the highway 1 corridor around 06Z. While storms normally weaken overnight due to nocturnal stabilization, these storms may actually increase in intensity after midnight due to the available instability and the strong kinematic field. This may set the stage for tornadic t-storms to occur overnight, a potentially dangerous situation since most folks will be asleep when the most active weather may be occurring.

Tor warned cell headed for Hickory.....couplet looked decent over Valdese is weaker now.....

About the only thing that will stop this from being a epic day is storm mode getting cluttered.....too many storms to close together could keep things from getting to insane, still looks like there will be no shortage of tornados to track....

SPC left tomorrow as a mod risk but man things could get ugly fast in Dixie alley and there will unfortunately probably be several long track strong tornados tomorrow, for us here in NC its much more murky....

Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.

84 over 61 waiting to see if these storms will hold up......

Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off.....

Yeah 32 here as well.....

Hoping to get some gust to 50+ mph here tomorrow afternoon, wish I didnt have to work would be a good ride to Nags Head day.... the OBX might flirt with 60+ depending on how cranked up this storm gets....realistically we probably wont do much more than 40-45 this far inland though.

Occasionally moderate to heavy rain here tonight.....radar estimates of 1-1.5"....

Though this storm was much larger and covered GA/SC/NC its still the closest thing to something like what the GFS has in living memory....its been 35 years since something like that has happened...

Sturgis Cell...looks like there is probably a TOG with it.... From Spann's twitter

friggen Radarscope is on the fritz.......

Little early for hurricane season....GFS you so silly.....

Well the GFS just ran a mini me to the 93 "Storm of the Century" ....been flirting with a big east coast monster storm for a few days.....need it to track 300 miles further east though.....and not be 372 hrs....

There are people in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham reporting light to mod snow from time to time well north of the precip on radar....RGEM is a little better now has a dusting literally 10 miles to my south lol.....you know if I was forecast to get 1-3" tonight this thing would have no trouble trending south enough to screw me over the next 6-8 hrs, it never ever goes the other way though....I cant remember the last time we had a situation like this were the precip made it further inland than expected and gave us a surprise couple of inches.

Yeah that was ugh, I was expecting him to pull in get out and run to the house/structure and nope just turning around.....

People reporting snow in Tusculoosa and Bham AL well north or the radar returns so that is odd.....not sure how heavy it is but I cant imagine its too heavy if its not being picked up on radar....

It really wont take much to turn this into something as bit more than a few flurries, already downstream it seems to be producing a bit more than the hi res show, sure would be nice to see one bust in our favor for once.....doesn't seem likely but we may see at least some flurries up here in Pitt Co....

It doesnt have to be that violent to wreck trailers, however this one looked fairly violent probably EF3 maybe even high end EF3.....folks in those trailers never had a chance, their options were get out of the way or go underground and very few places in the south have a underground option.

No matter what there will be some serious winds be it straightline or downburst all over the Columbia metro area outside of any tornado damage....

Just south of St Andrews might be trying to take over, which would put Columbia downtown in the path.....pretty messy, dont see anything that screams TOG though....

Yeah there was a TDS then as well, sucks for the next 3-5 mins we wont get a good look cause its over/near the radar....

It may have occluded and now its reforming a touch north in the meso...if this hold up it would be on track to hit right into downtown Columbia....literally right over the radar almost now so hard to say whats going on.....