downeastnc

she has a very well defined eyewall man......look at radar..... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

She wont spin up to much more probably she is to damn big but the hurricane force winds extend well out to the N and NE of the center and if she does stay 20-25 miles north of track and comes in closer to Jville/Swansboro and moves more west and less WSW after landfall she is gonna be able to really get that wind field deep into eastern and central NC, places like the Triangle that might be expecting less could get more this way.....her speed will help limit it somewhat, the flip side is your liable to have winds well into hurricane force for a long time....

Bet the NHC wished she would stop riding the very northern edge of the cone like she is......

GFS landfalls same spot as 18Z...heads inland over SE NC....then turns SW towards SC.....takes it a day to do that though and its onshore the entire time.....gonna be a monster rain maker though....travels less than 150 miles in 36 hrs......all of it spent over SE NC....

ICON landfall plot right on mouth of New River.....maybe 20-30 miles north of official NHC track...but it goes more west inland and doesnt take a immediate SW turn and honestly this seems more realistic since it doesnt stall the turn SW will be more subtle.....

ICON pounding Triangle to the coast....

Right 120 is just as likely as 100 at this point...the shear is backing off some and she has a solid core and 24ish hrs left over bathwater..... ICON pretty much the same has landfall up over Jville/Swansboro

Sounds like they bumped the track north a touch but not much bring it in maybe 15-20 miles north of Cape Fear havent seen the graphic yet...

Outflow looks to be improving on he south side as she gets away from that TUTT.....and she has fired storm all around the center, with 18-24 hrs to go who knows what she will do...she could still get 120-130 again....still 110-120 seems more likely just based on climo.

On her current heading she will go right into Drum Inlet EAST of Cape Lookout.....she is still moving NW at a good clip as well....its gonna take a big slowdown or sharper turn to get her were NHC has her hitting....again though being NE of track now doesnt mean she wont correct with a quicker turn etc....but it also makes you wonder if the models like HMON/GFS/CMC etc that all jumped up to a J'ville to MHX landfall moving west and then more inland over interior eastern NC might be on to something.....if the Euro/Ukie/FV3 dont make a decent move north at 00Z then I think the NHC has it nailed but they are sweating that NE of track trend.....the 00Z track guidence suggest they wont move much at all....doesnt mean they are right either though.

She is already looking better, by this time tomorrow she could easily be a 120-130 mph storm again....intensity forecasting is a crap shoot....but she hasa solid large well defined rotation and could easily go off if she can get in somewhat better conditions which appears to be the case.....of more concern is the actual track she takes.....she has been NE of the NHC track by quite a bit all day....if she does end up making landfall up further north it changes things for me and you considerably.

Yeah she has tried all day.....still 24 hrs till landfall at least. She is doing work on the south side and looks a bit better..and its just odd watching a cane approach NC like this expecting it to hit....so use to them being south of ILM headed north not out east headed NW...that ridge better break down soon or she is going to come on in between ILM and MHX....

She does look rough at the moment.....would rather this be her 10 hrs from landfall, to much time left for her to get her act together.....

HMON with a 50 mile jump north with landfall....puts Bogue Banks in the north eyewall then moves west into Swansboro/Jville,....was just north of Cape Fear last run

Per the wind maps on Weather.us a lot of 60+ mph winds...she has a huge wind field if accurate it gets strong TS gust into the Triangle, this is why people need to stay focused.....not to mention that she still keeps on trucking NW away from the NHC track she could end up here sooner and north of where the forecast is now.....there isnt nearly as much stall either she keeps it moving though she does it slowly...still it makes more sense than sitting and spinning right on the coast the going SW to Charleston offshore....lots of people with no power this run

18Z GFS solid landfall this time....center gets inland NW of ILM 50 miles at least slowly drifting WSW....

So they have a plane sampling the ridge NE of Flo....that data would be in the model runs right? If not at 18Z then by 00Z for sure....

Looks like they dont think the short term track error matters downstream.... Therefore, only a slight eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36 hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

CMC at 12Z basically runs the what if the stall/turn is 75-100 miles later scenario.....this is still very plausible and with the way she is booking it NW right now the CMC may be leading the pack on a north inland correction.....bottom line this would put central, and inland eastern NC in legit hurricane conditions....CMC drifts WSW from here.....but this is the NW extent the center makes it this run. Not saying this is going to happen just saying this option is still very much on the table depending on the trough and ridge timing etc....

The tornado threat will also be rather high in central and eastern NC especially with a stalling system as the outer bands more prone to tornados will be constant....imagine there will be tons coming on off the ocean over the OBX as well....

Its been my experience that storms approaching NC almost always correct NE a bit that last 12-24 hrs.....though let me add a obligatory "this is a different setup and every storm is different" statement to that , still I think if there are any shifts in the short term (so Thur noon into Fri morning) they will be to the north either with the stall itself or a more west or WNW drift instead of WSW drift....as the models see the block isnt as strong as they are seeing it as now.....or the ridge holds on a little longer etc...

Sure most models still bring the center up to just off SE NC.....again 50-100 miles will make a huge difference on things for a lot of us, and the models could easily be wrong about the actual stall spot. The models almost all have the storm headed right for MHX then stall it out in Onslow Bay just NE of ILM, then it sits for a bit then it heads SW, it stops about 50-100 miles south of us so any change in that point N would be obviously change our impact... it would not take much error for it to be the difference between 40-70 mph gust and 8-10" of rain and 70-100 mph gust and 10-20" of rain here..or if the SW motions is more W after the stall that would keep us in the heavier winds and rain longer...the current model runs still put us within 100 miles of the center on the N and NE side so winds gusting 50-70 would still be likely and with the stall it could be a long duration span with winds hitting 50-70 so comparable to Irene or Matthew in that regard, also though if the stall happens 50-100 miles sooner and we get almost nothing here.....this approach angle and slowing down will make it nerve wracking for the coast and eitehr way Thur-Sat is going to be a long 48 hrs for a lot of us....so I would be cautiously optimistic that we wont see much more than 40-60 mph gust and 10" of rain.

Looking on the weather.us site and looking at the winds, MBY never goes over the 70 mph line but it stays in the 55-70 mpg gust zones for more than 24 hrs.....which is believable we had hurricane force gust from Irene when she was SE of Lookout.....it has 50 mph gust as far inland as RDU and Rocky Mount with Flo even when she is offshore....so imagine if it did come another 50-75 miles NW before stopping and ended up over Goldsboro/Wilson thats why I am still concerned a bit,....she could also stop sooner and keep all the wind confined to the coast....this is why stalls suck.

This GFS run just shows how much a 75-100 mile change can make, between 54 and 60 it slams on the brakes barely stopping before landfalling in Onslow Bay if it goes another 50-100 miles before stopping it changes things for a lot of people inland.....and that 100 miles is well within the margin of error in the 50 hr range....