downeastnc

yeah it spun up quick....from the time I noticed the rotation starting to me being able to post it went from nothing to warned and OTG...

Rotation trying to form just south of Smithfield......and its warned and maybe seeing a TDS trying to pop up...

Bozart who post here from time to time caught this on the eastern NC cell this was in Wilson Co...

The Cumberland cell probably close to OTG.....latest scan shows it tightening quickly----

Second storm just west of Chapel Hill is awful hooky ......the first couplet will fade and this one will probably take over.

If this doesnt lift its about to get into nothing but huge residential neighborhoods.......and a hospital

Has a TDS with it.....this is OTG

Wayne Co cell couplet gonna pass just west of Goldsboro....got tighter last couple of scans....

Thats over a very populated area if its on the ground there should be a big ole TDS.....

Storm in Wayne Co still producing off and on as well, could be a TDS a bit NW of Mount Olive.....

Cell south of Clinton also looks like it likely to produce soon if it isnt already....

looks like it tracked just barely east of Rowesville.....decent TDS with it.....

Yeah was just watching the southern end of that line already some rotation forming...

The LLJ is literally record setting over NC tomorrow for this time of the year especially the eastern half of the state with 925 winds 50-60 knts and 850's over 70-75 knts......a strong rain shower will mix that down so I think it is possible to see winds at least 40-50 along the line even where the storms are weakest...with plenty of 55-75 reports mixed in. The latest HRRR is rough, semi discrete line with a following squall line....the timing sucks too would put it around 4-8pm on a Friday when it is crossing central/eastern NC.....

Yeah if ever there was a setup for widespread straight line wind damage this is it....to add to that this last frame from the last HRRR run has a lot of small semi discrete cells right where you dont wanna see them...

There are a ton of reasons to not buy in totally to the NAM, but even if its over done by half thats still a rough day.....really I think its a safe bet that at the minimum we see several broken line segments all of which will produce severe criteria wind gust over a fairly large area, it should not be hard to get some impressive winds to the surface given the wind field aloft......the real question is do we get enough instability to fire those semi discrete supes with a leeside surface low.....

18Z NAM is just a wee bit concerning.........seriously some of the most insane sounding for NC you will ever see....also this line of semi discrete cells over central eastern NC would be exactly the kind of stuff we don't wanna see.....then the line its self is gonna be crazy efficient at getting those 70-80 knt winds just off the surface down.....could be a heck of a event if the NAM is right.

RAH AFD this afternoon highlights the main points rather well....... The beginning of the long term continues to be the time of interest as a maturing mid-level cyclone moves over the Ohio Valley. Friday morning a low level stratus deck will likely be in place which will help to create a differential heating boundary across the CWA. The NAM at this time also indicates a weak confluence boundary over the CWA. These multiple mesoscale boundaries will likely play a key role in how Friday develops. Friday afternoon PWATs will continue to rise and approach 1.7" as strong low level southerly flow helps to advect moisture into central North Carolina. These type of PWATs would be a monthly record. A surface low will then form across western North Carolina Friday afternoon into evening and pinwheel northeast as the mid-level low takes on a negative tilt. SFC to 3 km shear values are again extremely impressive with values around 40 kts. Instability with the system remains in question. MU CAPE values on the GFS are in general less than 1000 J/kg while MU CAPE values on the NAM are more around 2000 J/kg. The main threats with this system will be damaging wind gusts (owing to the extremely strong low level flow), heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. SPC currently has the area outlooked in a Day 3 enhanced.

This setup has tons of potential to be epic or to bust....if we manage to get breaks in the clouds and can get any kind of real instability like the NAM has, plus some kind of surface low reflection over the upstate of SC to back the winds then Friday could be epic.......it could also stay cloudy all day and be a typical skinny cape high shear squall line that gives sporadic bowing segments with winds 60-70 mph.....but overall a meh day.

SPC write up for Friday included this.... ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley early Friday morning is expected to continue eastward, maturing into a well-formed mid-latitude cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians by the end of the period. Very strong flow aloft will exist throughout the base of the upper trough, with the strongest flow developing within its eastern periphery Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday morning. 500-mb flow could exceed 100 kt, which is near record values across the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic based on SPC sounding climatology. In contrast to these impressive dynamics, overall thermodynamic environment will be marginal. Given that ample low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 12 g/kg), the modest instability is largely a result of warm temperatures aloft and consequent poor lapse rates.

Models still have really high STP and cape values so you got to worry that if there are any semi discrete cells over the next 3-4 hrs that they could quickly spin up....currently 75/70 with the winds starting to kick up some from the south....

SPC just took all of the SE out of enhanced risk..... This is all they are saying about overnight Ongoing QLCS and clusters from western GA into the eastern FL Panhandle will continue to pose a near-term threat for embedded brief tornadoes and damaging winds amid strong low-level shear. Some of this activity (namely the west-central GA) may persist through the afternoon and further develop northeast toward the Carolina Piedmont. A broad downstream cirrus canopy will slow boundary-layer heating and weak mid-level lapse rates will further curtail instability. But the damaging wind/tornado threat should continue amid a 50-60 kt low-level jet.

Yeah 80/69 at noon, though the hi res models still keep that line fairly tame as it moves through after midnight when the STP values go nuts, still models show 1000-1500 cape with STP values 5-6 at that time so its tough to know just what kind of storms will be associated with that line......any decent storm is going to be rotating if it gets semi discrete enough....all it takes is one or two to make it a really bad night.