downeastnc

Yeah the whole " you never wanna be in the bullseye 7 days out yada yada yada"....those MA folks probably thinking they have this one right where they want it in the 7-8 day range......the FV-3 track is money until the low gets captured and tugged back into the sounds.........

Probably over a inch of rain for the day so far......temp came up almost 20 degrees from low 40's to mid 60's in a few hrs this morning.....

Got 28 here, if the wind had laid up there would have been a lot of low to mid 20's in NC.....

Models bring the warm air inland to at least I 95 tonight and the NAM 3k and HRRR have a squall line develop and blast east......might see the SPC drag that slight risk inland a bit.....nothing worse than a Nov nighttime squall line, at one time NC lead the US in Nov tornado deaths.....not sure if that dubious honor still applies. Found this about nighttime tornadoes turns out its for NC in general https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2012/12/17/28-of-nc-tornadoes-occur-at-night-but-are-responsible-for-67-of-all-tornado-fatalities/ From RAH..... but the surface temps/dewpoints and their impact on convection over the SE CWA are more uncertain. Low pressure will develop over E NC along the front and ride northward tonight, and this may allow enough warm air to track inland to contribute to weak surface-based instability overnight. Southport in SE NC is already 70 (while CAD-impacted RDU sits at 43 and GSO at 39) with other coastal sites in the mid-upper 60s, so the risk for some CAPE in our SE this evening persists as this juicy air works inland. And given the increasing and shifting winds with height through the low levels generating high 0-1 km SRH, a few rotating cells may occur.

At PGV clouds moved in holding temps to a low of 30 before a bounce back to 33/34 by dawn.....

PGV hit 32 for one observation so I guess it doesnt really count as a "freeze"......also PGV hasnt hit 32 this early since 1992.

A guy on my hunting board said that Duke had also sent crews south to preposition to help out in FL/GA....so they are also short crews....not sure if its true though.

Wind picking up here, still seeing reports of 50-60 mph gust just W and SW of me so we will see how it goes the next hr or so.....

Hope not

radar returns fading fast might not be able to get the winds down here east of I 95 without the heavier showers....

all the RDU folks are gone lol.....either they are outside watching or they all lost power....

Ft Bragg reporting 51 mph gust as the band builds south.....

You can see the wind field expanding this is all 70+ mph stuff...also dont be fooled west and south of that area the winds are rough and picking up the radar just doesnt see it as well that far away as the beam gets higher

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1050493946399518720 Allan Huffman tweeted 54 gust at RDU gonna go higher than that though I bet

That was a thunderstorm you probably are not done....velocity scans show serious wind close to the ground over you, that band of rain just west of you will get that to the surface as well....should pick back up in 15-30 mins or less....

yeah looks like we are gonna get our intense wind band.....might not see some of the insane high 85-90 mph gust the HRRR has then again I wouldn't rule that out RDU to the east in isolated cases....feel pretty good that the Triangle will be getting widespread 55-65 gust in a few hrs......gonna be a fun commute home for many....

HRRR shows lull for you well, you guys are the ones that will let us know if the HRRR is overdone or not cause if you are not getting hammered by 1-2pm its overdone 11am 1 pm

Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol.

Gonna be bad if the HRRR is right....these gust are going to be more vertical and violent as hell....the thing is the band will be narrow you will have a few hrs of 30-40 mph gust then maybe 1-2 hrs of intense wind then 20-30 type gust on the backside of the band.....

Better to look at 925 MB winds they are the ones that will get mixed down....850's are 4-5k ft up versus 1500-2000 ft up on the 925mb.... ninja'd lol

Best wind is currently south of the center as the dry air wraps in seeing reports of 55-60ish type gust but a lot of station are reporting N/A since power is out.....this wind max will rotate through SC so places like Columbia wont peak their gust till the center is north of them, another thing to look for is the pressure leveling or even dropping a few MB's this will indicate its transition to extra tropical is starting.....the earlier that happens the more likely the bigger hi res winds are....

Hi Res Models still hold on to the band of intense wind developing over west central NC and then bring it east with gust to 60-80 mph....still the local NWS offices think its overdone and they are probably right....there may be a few rogue gust to 70-75 but generally I wouldnt expect more than 40-50, 60 max.....still that will be enough to drop trees etc. Sig Tor values over central and eastern NC are still 3-5 and there will probably be a few tornados today....we will know if the hi res models are onto something by mid day as thats when we should see winds picking up along the I 77 corridor....

seeing reports of first confirmed death....tree fell on home killing a man in Florida....sadly that probably wont be the last one of those....

when I see all those streaks out in eastern NC I see tornados .... if you find yourself in a tornado warning tomorrow you should treat it as if it is verified because they will happen fast and most radar indicated tornados will probably be real.....

yeah the 00Z HRRR has 70-90 mph gust from I 77 east...obviously overdone.....the question is by how much.....like you pointed out it would take all the stars aligning to pull that kind of wind off, but again this setup hasnt really ever happened before ( or at least not in the last 100 or so years) so maybe this is that 95th percentile event....we will know in about 15 hrs if the winds forecast start to happen out west.