downeastnc

yeah the GFS is drunk and needs to go home.....though that is the weird meandering crap these storms do if the steering currents get weak.....still of all the outputs this has to be the least likely....they said that about Harvey last year too though.....

So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there...... GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding....

Honestly it would be like that all over I think, Fran was really bad on her NW side the center was 75-100 mile SW of PGV and we gusted to 110 so that track with that kind of storm would be the windiest hurricane in interior NC since Hazel, especially with the deep ridge off to the NE to really pack the gradient on that east and north sides...and then there is this....luckily the rivers are low but I dont know if they can deal with this.....

Yeah Euro real ugly for the Triangle to the coast.......probably 3-4 millions without power that run....

Euro gonna be NC this time or SC/NC border......looking like maybe Fran part duex only with Hugo.....

FV3 comes in just north of ILM.....then moves NNE across eastern NC before looping back down off SC and then coming up and hitting ILM again......the last 4 runs have hit anywhere from Hatteras to Georgetown SC.

Still havent hit the checkout button yet......so far the GFS is east of me and the Euro inland from me.....probably means I am screwed since the blend is right over me lol.....found one on Prime that I can get by Thursday even if I wait till tomorrow....

The ICON 00Z run is a miss just off Hatteras and the first non landfall run for the ICON in 3-4 runs.....it however has always been more of a S to N type track just inland over NC and most other models are more SE to NW......

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

No problem , like I said peak gust in Greenville was probably 70-80 mph and nothing in this video was that bad, peak wind hit right at dawn and the videos didnt come out really....most of this is like I said 25-30 mph sustained gusting to 50-60 at best....PGV reported wind gust to 50 or better for 15 straight hrs..... This is the next day....you can see my parents house on the right when we take the turn thats the carport we were under.....its also the carport Fran almost took out....

This is dumb, look I am a wind junkie I love it.....but there is a huge difference between Cat 1-2 winds and Cat 3-5 winds ( which this will likely be) ....this video I took from Irene shows how it is with 30mph sustained and gust to 60, and it was like that video nonstop for 12-15 HOURS.....you dont want more than this trust me. In Fran it was the middle of night no power winds hitting 100-110 in gust and the sounds outside of everything tearing up while you wonder if the roof stays on is not something you want to experience....or at least I hope not. Then there is the after effects, no power for a week or weeks, not able to work, it sucks.

So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase......

Yeah 12Z gave me the eye, this run I never quite get in the eye its maybe 30 miles further east moving more north, kinda goes Lookout,Aurora,Williamston,Ahoskie/Roanoke Rapids....havent been in the eye since Isabel but it was a ragged storm, Bertha was the only real true eye I have been in, and it was not like it was all blue sky though we did see blue sky.....many runs left to go but looking pretty likely that some part of NC is gonna be dealing with this storm....

The NAM 3k is still a pretty nasty thump for a lot of central and eastern NC...this would be a bit more than flurries in the Triangle

you guys all act like winter is over after this week or something......missing out this week doesnt mean there wont be other chances down the road.....though the cold will need some time to reload and a mid Jan warm up will happen. Then its a matter of waiting to see if the cold dumps south again around late Jan into Feb for another few weeks of cold and snow chances....

You would think we live in North Dakota with the way folks expect snow to happen down here.....overall in NC ( outside the mts ) your lucky to see winter weather happen 3-5 times a year and of those times it might accumulate 2-3.....its not even Jan yet and the overall pattern the next 2 weeks is one of the coldest in a while...the GFS not having a storm 5-6 days out is in no way meaningful since for one its the GFS and two models in general suck at picking up storms in the SE in this type of pattern and often doesnt get it right till inside 72 hrs....see Xmas 2010 as a prime example.

Believe what? We just noticed a strange pattern where it seems that the years that have extremely active severe weather in NC also tends to be the years we have landfalling TC in NC, while years with quiet severe weather seasons tend to not have landfalling TC's. Its just a interesting and fun observation and every year around this time we try to see where the numbers are.

Debbie raising hell in Australia this location is just SE o where Josh is sustained 110 gusting 132... https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Proserpine+Hamilton+Isla%2C+Australia This is where Josh actually or as close of a obs point as I can find to his location.... https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:IQUEENSL1168

The RGEM looked terrible and 12Z and its starting to correct etc, the 18Z much better some places in Pitt Co went fro no snow to 7" in one run lol......something wonky happened at 06Z to screw it all up but the models are coming back home now....the para NAM matched the GFS pretty well, don't know much about it but maybe they corrected some of the amplification bias, either way by 12Z tomorrow central and eastern NC at least will be staring down a HECS I hope....

Latest track has Nock-10 as a 90 knt storm basically right over or just south of Manila still, the southern end of the island of Cantanduanes and its "capital" Virac a city of 75k people looks to have took a direct hit though and the storm was easily a 130-140 knt storm when it hit there.......the path it is on is good for the rest of the folks there though over land and this thing should weaken fairly quickly.....

The town Josh was last in has reported winds gusting 80-100 mph for at least 4 hrs now.....that's a long time to deal with winds like that.....haven't seen any reports over 105ish though so far at any of the obs sites on the east coast....... this location gusting to 120 mph looks to be in the north eyewall never got the center... http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46706.htm

Pretty big eye and looks to be strengthening on the front side as it hits, Josh was in Hualien City not sure if he moved north or not, the last obs had gust to 89 mph there , pressure was 968mb and the worse of it is still a hr or two away....just gusted to 100

The number of tornados we had this year from Jan 1 to June 1st indicated that we would be very likely to have a landfalling TC this season in NC. The total number of tornados in 2014 is still not confirmed but several tornados I know occurred are not listed as official but the total was around 30 which would put 2014 in the top tier so after last night we have had a landfalling TC in 6 of the 7 years we have had 30 or more tornados by June 1st....

Since we are officially at the cut off point we used to make these list I thought I would give a update, based on the numbers out there the number of tornados so far is in the mid to upper 20's and possibly right at 30 but a lot of these are unconfirmed reports of tornados etc. so a firm working number is hard to find ATM. That said with the above numbers of 25-30 tornados so far this year means we fall into the above average chance of seeing a landfalling TC in NC. If we have had 30 (unofficially we have had 28 ) then 5 out of 6 years with that many ended with a landfalling TC in NC......however and interestingly the one year we had 30+ tornados and no landfall we were in a EL Nino which we are apparently in or heading into now...... If you take all years that had a landfalling TC in NC and average all of them the average number of tornados in a year with a landfall is 28 which is again right about where we are for the year. So again all indicators strongly suggest a higher than normal chance of a landfalling TC in NC this year.....with the El Nino being the only caveat. the last few years have proven pretty reliable since this thread first started 2011 had a insanely high number of tornados well over 30 and we had Irene 2012 had 17 and Beryl was technically a depression then a post tropical system with winds of 40mph over the NC coast so that's iffy and we haven't been counting depressions and haven't really considered post/sub/extra tropical systems and how they factor in especially since the criteria used to determine these things has evolved and gotten more precise over the last 20 years or so. 2013 we had 8 tornados and that matches the average of tornados we have for years without landfalls so that is exactly what we would have expected last year.

Going to bump this thread to make it easier to keep track of how many tornados we have this year, since we do pretty good about listing confirmed ones in threads I was hoping folks would also include any confirmed tornados this year in this thread. The numbers in 2011 pointed to us getting hit and we had Irene , last year we barely had any tornados and obviously no hits from last years putrid TC season. This year we have had 3 confirmed that I know of all yesterday 2 in Roberson and 1 in Wayne, there was also the Beaufort hit but I checked and it was Dec 26th so it wont count on this years cycle....if there was another one I missed this year let me know here thanks.