downeastnc

I dunno, seems like it over done probably IMO, but again even if it is overdone by say 10-20 mph its still 40-60 mph gust, hell when the band gets to central NC to east it has some 70-80 KNT pixel in it thats pushing 100 mph and we all know thats gotta be wrong....but it is a unique setup I am sure all the local NWS office hate seeing that output on almost all of the hi res models.....

Another possible issue for us is the tornado threat, the NAM3k has a line of storms on the east side and they will spin up given this sounding from MBY for tomorrow afternoon, this pretty much goes for anywhere east of I 95 as the center gets into NC...

Well the trend on the HRRR is to form the west side band sooner and further southwest...I am assuming it drags this band east to the coast like the 18Z run...inbetween the 00,06,12,18 the HRRR only runs 18 hrs. those runs are just now getting into range...the real question is how accurate is this even if its 10-20 mph to fast thats still 50-60 mph widespread gust....basically everywhere you see blue is hurricane force gust....

Also IF the west side wind band develops the wind gust will be violent and the peak gust sudden....more top down than side to side type gust as they are mixing down....they will also be much higher than the background gust, you will get a a good 30-40 sec gust to maybe 40 mph then the peak will hit suddenly ramping up to 60-75....if those types of winds do verify I agree lots of trees onto houses.

RAH did in their afternoon disco, they will probably pull the trigger on wording talking about it if the 00Z hold on to the west side band of intense winds....waiting for it will be worse than waiting for those wintertime rotting snow "deform" band to rotate through.

Sure, even if the backside band doesnt pan out or its not as strong there is still going to be a fair amount of 40-50 mph gust around and that will knock some power out, the band the models have though of a continuous 2 hr long band of winds gusting 60-80 mph crossing basically the entire state is nuts....thats part of the reason the NWS etc is skeptical of it...again the word unprecedented would fit.....problem is we have a unprecedented Cat 4/5 storm quickly moving into the area...if it happens exactly like the hi res models show then at least its gonna be cooler after the storm so all the folks without power wont have to suffer in the heat.

The main forum thread is ugh.....I am glad for the most part the folks in this sub forum are smart enough to avoid most of that crap.... This is a smart move for now....and it better than what they had yesterday lol...

Are you surprised? The NWS is skeptical of it, and honestly we should all at this point....we may not know for sure if it is going to verify until it develops....its a tough thing to forecast a 2 hr window of wind gusting possibly to hurricane force....

Its moving a bit more due NE these last several frames so I would expect it to be pretty close to the NHC track from here on out....

Looked legit for several frames....maybe a TDS with it now....

Especially given the setup.....again this is kind of unprecedented so I am sure the NWS folks are wary of the model output showing a band of intense winds forming, but if they are right then yikes...here are a few HRRR maps and all you folks that live in between these maps the band goes over you too from I 77 to the coast....for the SC people there is almost no where in SC that the HRRR does not have 60+knt gust over.... When the band is forming for you western folks For the Triangle peeps MBY and eastern NC folks

IF IF IF....that backside intense band of 60-80 mph winds does develop as modeled by a lot of models now it is certainly going to take a lot of people by surprise....all the models have it in one form or another and most start cranking it up just along a line from Charlotte to the Triad....it only last a few hrs but 2-3 hrs of gust 50-80 will be all it takes to cause widespread power outages and trees blocking roads etc....

Yeah you would think the only way thats possible would be over on the coast LOL.....friggen amazing.....HRRR and NAM still have as pocket of hurricane force wind gust on the SE and east side 14 hrs from now.....50 mph gust pushing up to ATL will mean the lower 2/3rd of GA will have power issues.....and hell all of SC will when it gets there.

RAH acknowledging the models showing that band of really intense wind on the backside of the center While the surface wind field will have weakened from its current hurricane status, this is a powerful storm with a lot of energy, and the storm`s swift movement will allow far too little time for significant dissipation of this energy. Winds just aloft around the broad center of the storm will remain quite strong, with model projections showing 40-60 kts at 925 mb on either side of the center. And forecast soundings as well as model cross sections indicate sufficient low level mixing just behind the center, as the drier air dives in behind the departing storm, for a focused, particularly intense band of winds from the N. Will monitor for this potential closely through tomorrow. Irrespective of this occurrence, the potential gusts within this still-tropical cyclone warrant an areal expansion of the tropical storm warning, and this will take place after the next NHC forecast package is issued, barring any major track change (path or speed)

I think your right, there is just nothing to base expectations on historically so this is a for real seat of your pants forecast for most local NWS offices.....I am sure their instinct is to ignore the growing model consensus that this storm will basically be a hurricane or hybrid/hurricane all the way till it exist the NC coast, there just isnt a precedent for it really and it would be tough for them to call for 60-80 mph winds cause if it bust they will never hear the end of it......so I feel for the local NWS folks cause if they keep their call for 35-40 mph gust which wont impact much and keep the lights on etc and places end up gusting 60-80 and most of the state is in the dark folks gonna give them a hard time.... School is letting out at noon tomorrow and say there will be "at least" a 2hr delay Friday morning

Yeah the number of people without power will end up in the 5-10 million range at least....if it amps up inland and hits ATL/CLT/RDU and east then that number could double.....

Keeps 50-70 mph winds all the way through from SC to offshore NC as well and covers a large area with those winds to boot.....this is more believable to me than the GFS maps since the GFS had the pressure at 970 and winds around 90-100 at landfall, and well that was really off lol...the hard part for forecasters is to predict how the trough/ jet streak will interact with the strong circulation and low pressure of Mike....there is really no precedent for this in the analogs etc.....

Crazy that the pressure was still falling even though half the storm was over land including the eye.....Mike will probably be able to carry gust well over 100 mph inland a good 100 miles or more....already his speed is picking up it will only take him 5-6 hrs to cover 100-125 miles.....then who knows how Mike plays out over SC/NC a insanely strong transitioning hurricane in Oct in the SE hasnt exactly got a lot of analogs....

I still find it crazy it crashes from 100mph to 45mph in 12 hrs...and its a wound up beast with decent forward speed with trough interaction etc....should hold its own and honestly almost all modeling shows it staying stronger than a 45 mph storm.......the NHC are the experts however and I a mere mortal so I assume they have it nailed as they usually do.

Luckily it might not have time for the winds at the surface to catch up to the pressure falls, but what it does mean is the storm will take longer to start to weaken as it moves over land.....

Yeah if the winds catch up to the pressure then there will be probably a 40-50 mile wide area that just gets flattened......also with the pressure falls and tightening up Mike will hold those higher winds farther inland, this is a ramping up beast raging ashore versus a former beast falling apart.....it will take time for the center to unravel unfortunately.

This is a insane run of the HRRR which actually did really well with the winds in Matthew which was a similar transitioning system over NC.....but if you take the run till the last frame it has formed a incredible band on the west side and has 70-80 knt winds ( obviously overdone right????) in that band and drags it from CLT to RDU and I am sure as the runs get further out in time it will keep this all the way to the coast, but even if you knock 10-15 knts off those numbers it still 50-70 mph.....I wonder how much if any merit the local NWS offices will give this especially since almost all the other models have 50-80mph winds over central and eastern NC

This really shows the western side ramping up as dry cool air works into the storm this is why the models all have the winds beefing up over SC/NC....it may be overdone some but that is wind speed in knts and show 70-80 mph winds on the west side....

It makes me wonder how many Cat4/5 there have really been over the last 7-8 decades, back before we had good sat images and aircraft there could have been dozens or hundreds of storms who true peak in strength is not known. In the end this unfortunately looks like Michael's name is going to end up on that short list of monsters that have hit, Andrew, Camille, Hugo, etc.... Euro still has it kicking ass in GA this could be a massive hit for places that might not be expecting it... Euro also shows widespread gust into the 60-70 range well into NC again the power outages will reach into the millions if this Euro run is right....

NAM 3k showing good west side enhancement as the storm goes extra tropical, it drags that band of heavier wind all the way offshore......its probably overdone a bit but not by much.......should see more aggressive wind forecast for NC as all models have anywhere from 50-80 mph winds widespread over the eastern half of the state....