downeastnc

Its frustrating cause now this stupid stall is gonna make getting this right hard on the models.....when and how fast it stalls will matter a lot obviously....the models dont have the skill to pinpoint it at all either at least not to within 50-75 miles....its going to come down to nowcasting the center as it approaches.....

ICON still stubbornly east of the rest ( well except GFS ) in over Cape Lookout moving NNW slowly....

Not much change on 12Z guidance.....still has the stall/turn

Meh she will be fine thats not that far from me....as long as she has no trees near the house.....if it does stall and turn west she might not even get winds to hurricane force in gust....if it doesnt stall though it will be rough lol....

The thing is this stall and hard west turn is one of those things where the models really struggle....Flo is gonna come charging up from the SE and its gonna take a heck of a ridge to stop and turn her....where, when and even if the stall/turn happens is something they will struggle with which sucks...if its 6-10 hrs later than currently forecast it will have huge implications...its never easy here in NC when it comes to these damn storms....why cant the models get a solution and just stick with it.

The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am.....

yeah I cant help but think back to Matthew and how ALL the models had him stalling and looping in this range and then he didnt.....

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....

Its right over Jacksonville.....this is about as bad as it get as it gives the entire coast between Cape Lookout and Cape Fear inner core conditions though ILM would not get any surge really since the flow would be offshore....this is a horrible run for Jacksonville to Bogue Banks...it would also put 10-12 ft of water way up the Neuse and Tar.....

hard to say....on the current NHC track the center goes 50-60 miles SW of MBY so it will close to that for you as well....and thats the center of the center if its a 20-30 mile wide eye we are talking more like 40 miles to the inner eyewall....I have a hard time believing I only get 56 mph wind gust when a Cat 3 is sitting over Jacksonville with us within 50 miles of the core..... it depends on the structure of the storm too, also the gradient between the cane and the ridge will be a player on the NE side.....every storm is different though....Fran's center was 75-80 miles SW of us here and we gusted to 100 in that one, and I was in the SW eyewall of Isabel and never gusted over 55.

Yeah figures the closer we get the more cloudy the forecast gets.....just need it to not stall so much get in and get out do not need a rotting tropical low sitting over eastern and central NC for 2-3 days ugh....

Not really...the 18Z and 00Z are almost the same landfall spot 00Z maybe 20 miles more SW...it probably landfall in North Topsail within 20-25 miles of the official NHC track....its moving a bit more north though than the official track...the 18Z was more right into Jville... 18Z 00Z

00Z Ukie only got the panel for now close up will be another hr.....looks like the last run

The GFS wants to be like the other models but it just cant figure it out.....it still ends up inland but only after doing the ridiculous dumb crap to get there.....I mean i guess that could happen but its really the only one showing that loop really at this point....even the ICON came west like all the other models.....

The take away from the GFS and ICON is they both came further west closer to the consensus track, this lessens the odds of a OTS track or even a stall and rot east of Hatteras......they also both have the stall and west drifts although the GFS appears to want to take that to a whole other level.

GFS now south of ILM

ICON sits over the Pamlico sounds for ever......its wind map has MBY with 60mph or better gust for 24 hrs.....that would blow.....

Of course my first real hurricane Diana popped my tropical cherry.....I was 12 and she was the first real threat i remember..... It appears our two eastern outliers the GFS and ICON have shifted west a bit.....ICON also no biting on the stall and west drift all the others have maybe that is a real trend \...its a ****ty one though lol

Plenty of canes have stalled on or just off the coast.....usually though the models wouldn't be this clustered. The 00Z guidance is scary tight and the timing is getting well inside 72 hrs so just how much movement can there be in this range.....ultimately though if this thing stalls and loops offshore and misses altogether will anyone be that shocked......there just isn't much support for that at this time that all might change here in a few hrs with the 00Z's.

Yeah I imagine there wont be many if any hotel rooms left in Greenville by tomorrow....and coming here isn't gonna be much better lol.... the line for gas at every station I passed on my way to work was long......I get off at 11:30 gonna hit up Wal Mart they had generators earlier this evening.....I never ordered one cause it looked like it was gonna be south.....so this is my fault....gonna grab some other stuff too hopefully it wont be nuts at midnight.

Pretty clustered now just need them to shift east the next 6 runs...really though NHC has TS force winds onshore already at 8 am Thursday morning so that what 55 hrs out.....not much time for big dramatic changes......

HWRF is terrible for us.......6 hrs after landfall solidly in the north eyewall.....

Depends on track for us the current NHC track is bad enough we would be 30-40 miles from center on the N and E side not where you wanna be, any more shift to the east and we will be NE eyewall....really really don't wanna be there........could get some seriously high gust if that played out, look at what Irene did with 60-70's imagine 90-120 mph.

well inland its gonna be like that....only the immediate eyewall or rem of it will see any kind of high end sustained winds......but the sustained to gust ratio is higher away from the center.....take Fran for instance at PGV our highest sustained wind was around 45 mph but we gusted to 110.....in Bertha sustained was 40 but we gusted to 90...

Its based on Euro data from last run, the official NHC track is right of this a good bit the center would move on a line from Jacksonville to Goldsboro to RDU