Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[wthrmn654]

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

They really covered themselves - no upper limit of snow amounts and it extends all the way into Eastern PA

WSW from KPHI

Wise at this juncture. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Rmine1 said:

Upton has rain/snow mix for Sunday? 

For....... location please? 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Upton has rain/snow mix for Sunday? 

There’s no concern about rain with this storm, none whatsoever 

[snowman19]

This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Currently in Cape May dealing with a family emergency. Have to head back home on Sunday morning (Passaic cty). Any idea what time I have to hop in the car on Sunday morning to make it up north in one piece?

[Rmine1]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

For....... location please? 

Sorry, brightwaters 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Acceptable

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Currently in Cape May dealing with a family emergency. Have to head back home on Sunday morning (Passaic cty). Any idea what time I have to hop in the car on Sunday morning to make it up north in one piece?

just keep your eye on the radar

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Currently in Cape May dealing with a family emergency. Have to head back home on Sunday morning (Passaic cty). Any idea what time I have to hop in the car on Sunday morning to make it up north in one piece?

Early morning 8-10am 

snow moves in around noon

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, Snowpsycho said:

Still can't believe he did that. One of the best TV mets on air totally disregarded other guidance.

I mean a lot of good Mets didn’t think this was happening even 24 hours ago 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

Early morning 8-10am 

snow moves in around noon

thats as of now - could change and will start earlier in South Jersey

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do 

Since 2022? Definitely. But before Jan 2022 we had plenty of coastal storms that favored NYC and east. 

[Metasequoia]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Who is saying this???

Probably every other zonked weather weenie on Twitter X

[NEG NAO]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

I mean a lot of good Mets didn’t think this was happening even 24 hours ago 

some of them said nothing before March 1 - that was a mistake

[Uniblab]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Mike Masco just followed my weather page lol he wants to take some lessons

Were you weatherfeen? 

 

[nycsnow]

Latest NBM

[Wxoutlooksblog]

9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Upton has rain/snow mix for Sunday? 

Could be right. Changes to all snow as the storm comes closer Sunday night.

WX/PT

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Snowpsycho said:

Still can't believe he did that. One of the best TV mets on air totally disregarded other guidance.

This is why one should use probabilistic descriptions, particularly in the medium-range. Making deterministic "yes-no" declarations assumes that the general public is not capable of understanding complexity. That assumption says more about those who make it than the general public.

I provided an example in recent days where I referred to the high-end solution being a low probability, high-impact scenario rather than dismissing it out-of-hand. 4-5 days out allows for a lot of change. 

[the_other_guy]

23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It isn't. I'll leave it at that. 

Actually it is. They added 3 or 4 new holidays and came to an agreement with the UFT to not extend school year. They have to meet a minimum threshold of days per year with state. Hence the remote learning. They have no extra days built in.

 

Eid

Juneteeth

Lunar New Year

 

UFT can not report before Labor Day.

 

up in the burbs, our teachers report before Labor Day and sometimes school begins before Labor Day. And they also have five snow days figured in. They give those back over Memorial Day weekend and they cut the school year if they don’t use them.

Long story short, you need to hit 180. If the union contract has a hard stop on Labor Day and last week of June, something has to give if you add 3 new holidays. 

[MANDA]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Left lean

I like that look to get heavier snows further N and W into NNJ.

[Nibor]

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Since 2022? Definitely. But before Jan 2022 we had plenty of coastal storms that favored NYC and east. 

Yeah, most events jackpot either east of NYC or to the west. January 2016 and 2006 were the rare events that maxed out right across NYC and the boroughs. The heaviest snow for any given event usually ends up in the interior or across Long Island. 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There’s no concern about rain with this storm, none whatsoever 

But at the start temps will be above freezing for sure

[MANDA]

54 minutes ago, Nibor said:

For my own greedy purposes I'd like to see the sfc end up to the south of KBID / KMVY by about 50 miles.  Most favorable for inland spots of NNJ.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But at the start temps will be above freezing for sure

Maybe at the very start there are a few raindrops or mix on the coast? There’s no concern about it cutting down accums. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is probably going to be one of the rarer storms where north and west of NYC and Long Island (Bergen, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, Orange, Sussex, Passaic) sees less snow than they do 

I was thinking about that too, but if memory serves correctly, it seems like for at least 2 out of every 3 big storms that this is expected to happen, NE NJ somehow ends up outdoing LI regardless, to some surprise.

[SleetStormNJ]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, most events jackpot either east of NYC or to the west. January 2016 and 2006 were the rare events that maxed out right across NYC and the boroughs. The heaviest snow for any given event usually ends up in the interior or across Long Island. 

The city did well in Boxing Day.  

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

The city did well in Boxing Day.  

I got 25 inches.  My area was a mess with cars stucke everywhere. 

[steve392]

4 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

The city did well in Boxing Day.  

I was stranded for hours leaving our comm center that night. Coworker drove and rescued me.