Wxoutlooksblog

Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond. WX/PT

I think it may be in the 80s to near 90 next Monday. We'll see what if any backdoor activity there is and how westerly our surface winds are. If the winds are more southerly, we'll say in the lower 80s. If we see a b-door front Sunday night we'll stay in the 60s/70s. WX/PT

We are still in a wet pattern with an upper low in the northwestern Atlantic dominating. We've had computer model runs suggesting that this pattern might end or shift northward but thus far they've all been wrong. The best we can do in this type of pattern is an isolated day here and there around 80 perhaps but mostly 70s with quite a few days still only in the upper 50s and 60s. WX/PT

Still there. WX/PT

This is the problem and it was also the problem a year ago. We'll see if that upper low ever relinquishes its domination over the weather in the northeast this summer. Last year it really didn't. And the ridge building is in the Plains States. Plains and western mid west. WX/PT

I did not say it took that. And I also stated there were two out of 11 30+ 90+ day summers without any heat prior to June. WX/PT

I'm not. I'm not saying we won't but I am anything but very confident about it. WX/PT

In 1980 you had two 90+ days in May. WX/PT

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will. WX/PT

I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf WX/PT

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. WX/PT

Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler. WX/PT

And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher. WX/PT

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. WX/PT

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary hot summer. WX/PT