Metasequoia

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Everything posted by Metasequoia

  1. Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this, but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it.
  2. Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side.
  3. Looks like it's a tad north and east...
  4. Per the New England folks. EPS looks promising at this range.
  5. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full# Much better website for EURO.
  6. Snow is actually sticking to things other than car tops...nice change of pace for Manhattan.
  7. Looks like radar is filling in nicely for NYC as well.
  8. That and the banding on either side of NYC isn't that strong.
  9. I'm cherry picking obviously, but this wouldn't suck.
  10. Can't quite tell what latesr Ukie run indicates. Saw this on NE forum...
  11. If only 00Z CMC would verify...
  12. Any mets care to weigh in on possibly of thundersnow? How do those soundings look?
  13. Axis of heaviest snow is right over NYC and along coast.
  14. 10 to 1 ratio would give NYC 6 to 12 inches.
  15. Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html
  16. We are within 24 or so hours of the first flakes. Seems like we should start focussing more on shorter range models.
  17. Courtesy of the NE forum...12Z UKIE. I think this is NYC's storm...and LHV + Central NJ + LI.
  18. A wider vantage point. Would be impressive if this verifies. I'd like to see LI join in the fun...
  19. I would love to see a EURO clownmap if someone has one. I suspect it's 8 plus for NYC based on the use of the word, "caving".
  20. I'm not sure when 6Z and 18Z EURO runs started, but they are a thing. The operational run only goes to 90 hours or so.