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Metasequoia

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Everything posted by Metasequoia

  1. Metasequoia
    Also, the "big winners" might only get a couple more inches of snow. Looks like it will snow tomorrow and cover more than just cold surfaces and even stick around for a few days. I'd call that a win this season. Also, inverted troughs are biatches to forecast.
  2. Metasequoia
    Thanks. Unrealistic 10 to 1 ratios, but still nice to have something to track.
  3. Metasequoia
    Has the NAM received an upgrade since last Winter? If not, I think we have plenty of reason to be skeptical about its outputs.
  4. Metasequoia
    Fran in 1996 was a bruiser for Raleigh Durham. Widespread power outages and blocked roads for over a week.
  5. Metasequoia
    FWIW - the 18Z 3K NAM looks much better than the 12K and not much different than 12Z.
  6. Metasequoia
    The model run to run consistency is pretty bad. I agree with Rjay that we still don't have a good handle on this storm. The setup looks sensitive to modest changes. I could see the Euro swinging heavy snow back into the City on the next run.
  7. Metasequoia
    Would a met or someone that knows their stuff provide some guidance on using ensembles near the start of a storm? How useful are they at this point?
  8. Metasequoia
    The three best models showing significant impacts tonight would be quite welcome. Let's see. Euro has has decent runs as of late...
  9. Metasequoia
    Now this is finally getting interesting for NYC.
  10. Metasequoia
    Nam not so different from the GFS...in tuck and snowfall outputs. So maybe it's the Americans vs. the world. Euro can be the tie breaker.
  11. Metasequoia
    Tropical Tidbits has issues with depicting snow accumulations for Long Island and parts of the City. I think this partly explains the difference between the two maps.
  12. Metasequoia
    Where can I sign? Looks great...perhaps the boundary layer doesn't support these accumulations?
  13. Metasequoia
    I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers.
  14. Metasequoia
    Ukie has produced a few runs like this recently...maybe not quite this good though.
  15. Metasequoia
    Looks closer a BECS than a MECS.
  16. Metasequoia
    Ideal track for the metro?
  17. Metasequoia
    Five days to go. The low could still end up being 50 plus miles east and stronger, which would significantly change the outcome for the better. Of course it could just rain too...
  18. Metasequoia
    I thought para was a new version of a weather model that's being tested.
  19. Metasequoia
    Hmmm...I wonder how it compares to the standard European model regarding accuracy.
  20. Metasequoia
    Yes. Nearly everything has to go right for the City...lower Hudson Valley has more hope. Maybe there's a slushy inch for wave one unless a norlun appears from the mists.
  21. Metasequoia
  22. Metasequoia
    I don't hate this look a week out ...obviously further south is preferred.
  23. Metasequoia
    It's time to move onto the next late season opportunity whatever that is. There hasn't been a good model run for our region in days and the storm is two days away.
  24. Metasequoia
    A fourth flash and crack of thunder in BPC...and still not really sticking. Pretty sweet nonetheless.
  25. Metasequoia
    A third time just now.
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