Metasequoia
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Everything posted by Metasequoia
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I prefer snow, but I like a good sleetstorm. It's like really low ratio snow...which will do. The 2017 half foot sleetstorm in NYC was epic.
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Pretty nice look and the low is only at 998 mb.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
Metasequoia replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Snow and wind are gradually increasing in intensity in lower Manhattan. Sidewalks are covered and sidestreets are mostly covered. -
I think it's a couple hours earlier than the NWS forecasted. Others feel free to correct me.
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Almost unbelievable.
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It's all about expectations of course. This isn't the last model surprise. NOAA's forecast for New England might just verify in the end.
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NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them.
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Where do I sign?
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So the Euro shaved a couple of inches off on this last run. Still a nice hit for the metro and east. EDIT - Also good to the south.
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So, when should we ditch global models and pay attention to the medium and short range models?
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12 UKIE
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Almost time to use the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Page SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (noaa.gov)
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I just doubt the weather models can accurately forecast the placement of the surface low or lows for this dynamic of a storm to our preferred tolerances. Classic now cast storm. It's going to snow pretty good regardless.
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NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup...
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Interesting...
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Euro has been looking better each run as of late.
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Are ensembles of much use 24 hours before a storm?
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I would really like to hear a mets perspective on this latest euro run.
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Seems like the timing and rate of intensification of the low will significantly determine snowfall. This is one of more difficult things to predict. I think we need more time to figure this out.
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I think 5 to 20 is on the table for NYC.
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Well...EURO is no longer the western most solution. That's quite the change.
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The precipitation shield to the north west of the low on the 0Z NAM just doesn't look right... looks too small for such a strong low. It's not like there's a monster high to the north.
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That's only 12 hours of precip too by the looks of the map legend.
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0Z CMC looks like 24 plus hours of snow, inline with its mesoscale brother.
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Good point and all without significant blocking. I love a long duration snowstorm.
