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Metasequoia

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Everything posted by Metasequoia

  1. Metasequoia
    Snow and wind are gradually increasing in intensity in lower Manhattan. Sidewalks are covered and sidestreets are mostly covered.
  2. Metasequoia
    I think it's a couple hours earlier than the NWS forecasted. Others feel free to correct me.
  3. Metasequoia
    Almost unbelievable.
  4. Metasequoia
    It's all about expectations of course. This isn't the last model surprise. NOAA's forecast for New England might just verify in the end.
  5. Metasequoia
    NE folks were hoping for a record breaking storm, so I guess 12 to 18 inches seems lame to them.
  6. Metasequoia
    Where do I sign?
  7. Metasequoia
    So the Euro shaved a couple of inches off on this last run. Still a nice hit for the metro and east. EDIT - Also good to the south.
  8. Metasequoia
    So, when should we ditch global models and pay attention to the medium and short range models?
  9. Metasequoia
    12 UKIE
  10. Metasequoia
    Almost time to use the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Page SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis (noaa.gov)
  11. Metasequoia
    I just doubt the weather models can accurately forecast the placement of the surface low or lows for this dynamic of a storm to our preferred tolerances. Classic now cast storm. It's going to snow pretty good regardless.
  12. Metasequoia
    NAM is known for run to run inconsistency and this is a complex setup...
  13. Metasequoia
    Interesting...
  14. Metasequoia
    Euro has been looking better each run as of late.
  15. Metasequoia
    Are ensembles of much use 24 hours before a storm?
  16. Metasequoia
    I would really like to hear a mets perspective on this latest euro run.
  17. Metasequoia
    Seems like the timing and rate of intensification of the low will significantly determine snowfall. This is one of more difficult things to predict. I think we need more time to figure this out.
  18. Metasequoia
    I think 5 to 20 is on the table for NYC.
  19. Metasequoia
    Well...EURO is no longer the western most solution. That's quite the change.
  20. Metasequoia
    The precipitation shield to the north west of the low on the 0Z NAM just doesn't look right... looks too small for such a strong low. It's not like there's a monster high to the north.
  21. Metasequoia
    That's only 12 hours of precip too by the looks of the map legend.
  22. Metasequoia
    0Z CMC looks like 24 plus hours of snow, inline with its mesoscale brother.
  23. Metasequoia
    Good point and all without significant blocking. I love a long duration snowstorm.
  24. Metasequoia
    Fairly long duration as modeled.
  25. Metasequoia
    I wonder if the models are under doing the western extent of the precipitation. Seems under done for a sub 980 mb low.
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