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Metasequoia

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Everything posted by Metasequoia

  1. Metasequoia
    In theory, the size of the wobbles diminish every subsequent model run and we are only 48 hours out.
  2. Metasequoia
    Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this, but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it.
  3. Metasequoia
    Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side.
  4. Metasequoia
    Looks like it's a tad north and east...
  5. Metasequoia
    Per the New England folks. EPS looks promising at this range.
  6. Metasequoia
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full# Much better website for EURO.
  7. Metasequoia
    Snow is actually sticking to things other than car tops...nice change of pace for Manhattan.
  8. Metasequoia
    Snowing in Battery Park City.
  9. Metasequoia
    Looks like radar is filling in nicely for NYC as well.
  10. Metasequoia
    That and the banding on either side of NYC isn't that strong.
  11. Metasequoia
  12. Metasequoia
    I'm cherry picking obviously, but this wouldn't suck.
  13. Metasequoia
    Can't quite tell what latesr Ukie run indicates. Saw this on NE forum...
  14. Metasequoia
    If only 00Z CMC would verify...
  15. Metasequoia
    Just landed at LGA. Looks like all snow to me.
  16. Metasequoia
    Any mets care to weigh in on possibly of thundersnow? How do those soundings look?
  17. Metasequoia
    Axis of heaviest snow is right over NYC and along coast.
  18. Metasequoia
    10 to 1 ratio would give NYC 6 to 12 inches.
  19. Metasequoia
    Looks like it doesn't change to rain in NYC, but maybe you've looked at thermals. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030212/new-jersey/significant-weather/20190304-0800z.html
  20. Metasequoia
    We are within 24 or so hours of the first flakes. Seems like we should start focussing more on shorter range models.
  21. Metasequoia
    Courtesy of the NE forum...12Z UKIE. I think this is NYC's storm...and LHV + Central NJ + LI.
  22. Metasequoia
    A wider vantage point. Would be impressive if this verifies. I'd like to see LI join in the fun...
  23. Metasequoia
    We'll see.
  24. Metasequoia
    I would love to see a EURO clownmap if someone has one. I suspect it's 8 plus for NYC based on the use of the word, "caving".
  25. Metasequoia
    It is good in this instance...
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