Metasequoia
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Everything posted by Metasequoia
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Has the NAM received an upgrade since last Winter? If not, I think we have plenty of reason to be skeptical about its outputs.
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Fran in 1996 was a bruiser for Raleigh Durham. Widespread power outages and blocked roads for over a week.
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FWIW - the 18Z 3K NAM looks much better than the 12K and not much different than 12Z.
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The model run to run consistency is pretty bad. I agree with Rjay that we still don't have a good handle on this storm. The setup looks sensitive to modest changes. I could see the Euro swinging heavy snow back into the City on the next run.
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Would a met or someone that knows their stuff provide some guidance on using ensembles near the start of a storm? How useful are they at this point?
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The three best models showing significant impacts tonight would be quite welcome. Let's see. Euro has has decent runs as of late...
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Now this is finally getting interesting for NYC.
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Nam not so different from the GFS...in tuck and snowfall outputs. So maybe it's the Americans vs. the world. Euro can be the tie breaker.
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Tropical Tidbits has issues with depicting snow accumulations for Long Island and parts of the City. I think this partly explains the difference between the two maps.
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Where can I sign? Looks great...perhaps the boundary layer doesn't support these accumulations?
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I thought the GFS and CMC were close to something decent for NYC. If the low bombs out 6 or so hours earlier then maybe the CCB clobbers.
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Ukie has produced a few runs like this recently...maybe not quite this good though.
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Looks closer a BECS than a MECS.
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Ideal track for the metro?
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Five days to go. The low could still end up being 50 plus miles east and stronger, which would significantly change the outcome for the better. Of course it could just rain too...
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I thought para was a new version of a weather model that's being tested.
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Hmmm...I wonder how it compares to the standard European model regarding accuracy.
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Yes. Nearly everything has to go right for the City...lower Hudson Valley has more hope. Maybe there's a slushy inch for wave one unless a norlun appears from the mists.
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I don't hate this look a week out ...obviously further south is preferred.
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It's time to move onto the next late season opportunity whatever that is. There hasn't been a good model run for our region in days and the storm is two days away.
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A fourth flash and crack of thunder in BPC...and still not really sticking. Pretty sweet nonetheless.
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A third time just now.
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Second lightening strike with thunder in Battery Park City. So weird.
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No Joke.
