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Metasequoia

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Everything posted by Metasequoia

  1. Metasequoia
    Yeah...tenuous at 5 days out. Inland runner and whiff still on the table IMO. Whiff still my biggest concern...but we could all be hoping for an eastern correction in the days ahead. Still nice to see these runs tonight.
  2. Metasequoia
    What's to stop this from running inland? I know the Atlantic blocking isn't that strong...that's part of the answer.
  3. Metasequoia
    Snow is mixing in Battery Park City.
  4. Metasequoia
    FWIW - NAM outside of its useful range, looks more promising. I still don't like the placement of that high though.
  5. Metasequoia
    0Z RAP Not so bad...
  6. Metasequoia
    Link to free EURO site. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2021031100/colorado/acc-total-precipitation/20210317-0000z.html
  7. Metasequoia
    Still snowing in southern Manhattan...never stopped.
  8. Metasequoia
    What are the odds that NYC breaks its all-time snowfall record?
  9. Metasequoia
    That mixing line is sure racing north through NJ fast...
  10. Metasequoia
    I think there are going to be some all time snowfall records toppled in the region this week.
  11. Metasequoia
    06Z Para GFS would do just fine for about everyone. Model has been amazingly consistent.
  12. Metasequoia
    Yeah... I'm not talking about all the meteorological mechanics (which are cool), but the geographic spread / depth of accumulations and long duration. Has still a ways to go though.
  13. Metasequoia
    Some of the models tonight almost make this storm look like Jan 2016 redux.
  14. Metasequoia
    Yeah...always exceptions. I remember that one. I experienced my first thunder sleet. 2 inches of LE sleet. Still a pretty cool storm for many.
  15. Metasequoia
    In theory, the size of the wobbles diminish every subsequent model run and we are only 48 hours out.
  16. Metasequoia
    Seems like with these types of events it's very difficult to predict where the thermal boundary sets up. I certainly don't trust the forecast 3 or 4 days out. I'd rather be in Poughkeepsie for this, but I think NYC has a shot at a prolonged period of frozen precipitation. As crappy as this Winter has been, I'll take it.
  17. Metasequoia
    Seems like we need several things to go right for decent accumulating snow near NYC because of the marginal temps...hence it would be wise to keep evs weenie hopes in check. Basically, it's a no go unless there is a very strong low bombing out south of the area, taking a benchmark track. A beautifuly placed 990 mb low ain't going to cut it...nor will a 970 mb low tucked into the coast. I'm holding out some hope for perfection, but the odds are not on our side.
  18. Metasequoia
    Looks like it's a tad north and east...
  19. Metasequoia
    Per the New England folks. EPS looks promising at this range.
  20. Metasequoia
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011912&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf&m=ecmwf_full# Much better website for EURO.
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