Eastern Mass Gets Their Swag Back - SWFE on Steriods - Region wide Major Snowfall - Jan 25-26, 2026 Nowcast/Obs.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

We are 12 hours away from what promises to be the most widespread New England snowstorm in several years.

Around a foot of snow is a lock for many, however some questions remain.

Nowcasting will be important as we track the following:

1. 700mb warm layer which may cut down accumulations along the south shore and cape possibly up to I-84. NAM and GFS are now the warmest. While HRRR and RGEM and RAP are the coldest. An extra hour or two in the "thump" can be the difference between 8" or 12"+ along the south shore.

2. Snow growth and snow rates. How many hours can the zone of greatest uncertainty (south coast) maintain great snow growth.  I will be following the snow rates down to our SW to see if we have an overperformer on our hands.  

3. Extent of heavy accumulations into NNE?

4. Wrap around snows on Monday, will there be accumulating snow? How far SW will it extend? 

 

[WxWatcher007]

We pass the obs thread juju baton. Let’s get a region wide crushah.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR trending thumpier.. Eric Webb also reporting from the Carolina's that the HRRR verifying better than the NAM early on for ptype there.  Hrrr is unbelievably cold for the NYC Metro tomorrow with a massive thump wow.. Good news for the rest of New England on the thump if that verifies 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR trending thumpier.. Eric Webb also reporting from the Carolina's that the HRRR verifying better than the NAM early on for ptype there. 

Post it

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Post it

Band rotting over EMASS at 02z

 

[moneypitmike]

HRRR is south and cold.  GYX bring 'em down.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Interesting, that's too cold I think, southern outlier, kinda of like the old rap runs

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Band rotting over EMASS at 02z

 

North of 90 ain’t like that 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

North of 90 ain’t like that 

it wasn't done yet, I'll post the full run when I have it, it's goods for all , very juicy

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah we just need qpf up here. Give us that and I will roll the dice on ratios

[Prismshine Productions]

Safe to say my all time single storm snowfall total (4/4/24- 10") is about to be nuked

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Safe to say my all time single storm snowfall total (4/4/24- 10") is about to be nuked

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

We don't spike until the ruler is covered!

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah we just need qpf up here. Give us that and I will roll the dice on ratios

I have some caution flags, but it’s a lot of joy in here so whatev. But we’re relying on big ratios and big QPF over a relatively short amount of time in a SWFE…albeit one on roids. It can happen , but there’s not a lot of room for error. 
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my corrected Final map.....like I pointed out earlier, I had a brain-cramp and messed up on the topography of the ORH hills...now have max from the spine at the nw tip of RI/ne CT, right up to KJAF points east to the slopes, and into interior ne MA/SE NH.

 

Final Call:

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Meanwhile, back at the ranch....down below 0 at -0.2

[The 4 Seasons]

If this isn't a KU, i don't know what is. Wild looking storm snowing right now from Texas to NJ.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Snow is 2-4 hours head of schedule over Jersey with instant moderate snow 

[mahk_webstah]

Wow is this ahead of schedule.  Should be snowing in sw ct by 7 and up here by 11.  That is a few hours ahead.  Unless Virga?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wow is this ahead of schedule.  Should be snowing in sw ct by 7 and up here by 11.  That is a few hours ahead.  Unless Virga?

it is coming down hard in jersey already, good 4 hours ahead of schedule for that intensity.. as I said earlier in the week, these always come in earlier than modeled - 20-30:1 ratios being reported in Mid-Atlantic

[mahk_webstah]

Wunderground for me has it starting at 10, which is 4 hours ahead of nws. We’ll see.

[mahk_webstah]

-1 dp-9 humidity 67% so that’s not too dry at least at the surface.  Just unbelievable what the temp will be today with heavy snow.

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS and GEFS continue to bump up qpf.. this is going to be a beast for everyone!! ENJOY IT!!! 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

it is coming down hard in jersey already, good 4 hours ahead of schedule for that intensity.. as I said earlier in the week, these always come in earlier than modeled - 20-30:1 ratios being reported in Mid-Atlantic

Really? Holy smokes ratios. 

[ineedsnow]

New BOX map just issued

[WeatherX]

Just started here in Norwalk. 11f

[wx_observer]

Clouds from this system go all the way to the Pacific off the coast of Mexico.  Look at those waves of clouds over the N Atlantic, too.  Pretty strong lightning signatures along that line from TX to AL.  

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

New BOX map just issued

If latest modeling is correct,  I bet that's updated by noon

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

If latest modeling is correct,  I bet that's updated by noon

Ya we might start to bump up even more. Epic storm for SNE

[Damage In Tolland]

You can pretty much bring 20+ almost right down to CT coast . 1.4-1.7 of all snow with high ratios. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Snow going to struggle with dry air for a while?