Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[Brian5671]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

the roar/screech of the wind on that stream is unearthly. add in the occasional crash of debris and its straight nightmare fuel.

surprised it's still functioning...

[hawkeye_wx]

The eye is actually still hooking left as it moves into the coast.  The dead center could end up just a hair west of Josh.

[olafminesaw]

Black River looks to bear the brunt of the right eyewall. Population 4,261. Looks to me like more of a local residential area with not as many resorts

[Sharknado123]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Black River looks to bear the brunt of the right eyewall. Population 4,261. Looks to me like more of a local residential area with not as many resorts

That resort in white house is dead center, we need to be mindful of that. There were people in the resort posting on tiktok just hours ago. 

[beanskip]

Shoutout to whoever installed the Treasure Beach power poles. 

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

surprised it's still functioning...

people in the stream are a big fan of the telephone pole. this could be the new blue shed meme

[BlizzardNole]

20 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Montego Bay and Falmouth on the north coast look screwed too

I was just reading an "ask me anything" post on Reddit where a poster along with 12 others got stuck in one of those resorts on the north coast.  They tried to get out their flight was cancelled and couldn't find any.  They are hunkered in the resort's conference center with 300-400 people (Ocean Eden Bay, about 25 miles east of Montego Bay).  It looks like it will be wild for Montego Bay later 

[Jefflaw77]

1 minute ago, BlizzardNole said:

I was just reading an "ask me anything" post on Reddit where a poster along with 12 others got stuck in one of those resorts on the north coast.  They tried to get out their flight was cancelled and couldn't find any.  They are hunkered in the resort's conference center with 300-400 people (Ocean Eden Bay, about 25 miles east of Montego Bay).  It looks like it will be wild for Montego Bay later 

Yea the stories out of such a resort are going to be nuts

[Jefflaw77]

2 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

people in the stream are a big fan of the telephone pole. this could be the new blue shed meme

Did the stream just go down?

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yeah he's pretty far from the eye though

Even so, a nearby roof was just peeling off in Jeff P.’s feed due to >100 mph winds.

[smokeybandit]

Just now, Jefflaw77 said:

Did the stream just go down?

It keeps going in and out.

[NeonPeon]

Just now, Jefflaw77 said:

Yea the stories out of such a resort are going to be nuts

The overarching story there is "we are contributorily negligent." This thing was well forecast. 

[Bryan63]

Believe Sandals South Coast, formerly Sandals Whitehouse is going to take this on the chin. Hopefully they moved any remaining guests to another property.

[SnowenOutThere]

Glad to see accuweathers forecast was once again completely accurate!

[pazzo83]

just got calmer in the stream?

n/m - only briefly

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

The overarching story there is "we are contributorily negligent." This thing was well forecast. 

True, but it's hard to get last minute availability on flights, especially to vacation destinations. 

[TJW014]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Glad to see accuweathers forecast was once again completely accurate!

Better than the Ukie saying this was going into Belize

[pazzo83]

yeah it's definitely calming down on the stream.

[Roger Smith]

Looking at google earth there are very few settlements inland along the track this seems most likely to take, which is approximately White House to Falmouth. The terrain rises to about 3000' but a large portion of the interior is an area known as the Cockpits which are limestone depressions and karst topography, there are perhaps a thousand people at most living in the 40-mile wide stretch where core conditions will come and go, then the exit over Falmouth by which time possibly the intensity will be down to cat-3. It's very close to Montego Bay but they will probably have the slightly less violent western eyewall or just outside of that, on the current track. 

Josh is located hopefully inland as Crawford seems to consist of two parts, one on the inland highway and one being a housing development closer to the ocean. Even at the inland road the elevation is only about 10 meters. It looks to be a wooded area with better construction than some parts of rural Jamaica. The larger town of Black River is a few miles east of Crawford, and Santa Cruz inland may be in the forward eyewall. Those places are facing considerable if not total destruction; this small hurricane intense core situation reminds me of Andrew when it devastated portions of Homestead FL in 1992, as people have been commenting, F5 tornado conditions are being reported in the eyewall. 

As bad as this is going to be, there were worse possible tracks in terms of total damage potential and consequent human tolls, 25-50 miles west would have been a lot worse, and 50-75 miles east would have brought these peak conditions into the greater Kingston area where I would imagine it's pretty rough but will perhaps peak at cat-2 intensity or less. 

[Lava Rock]

5 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

Believe Sandals South Coast, formerly Sandals Whitehouse is going to take this on the chin. Hopefully they moved any remaining guests to another property.

Stayed there 2 yrs ago. Nice resort

[wthrmn654]

A 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew (call sign TEAL 75), known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, is returning to it's forward operating location in Curaçao after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm.

 

During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence. While this does not automatically indicate damage, standard safety procedures require an inspection before returning to operations. 

 

The 53rd WRS is an Air Force Reserve unit assigned to the 403rd Wing, Keesler Air Force Base, Miss.

[RaleighNC]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Looking at google earth there are very few settlements inland along the track this seems most likely to take, which is approximately White House to Falmouth. The terrain rises to about 3000' but a large portion of the interior is an area known as the Cockpits which are limestone depressions and karst topography, there are perhaps a thousand people at most living in the 40-mile wide stretch where core conditions will come and go, then the exit over Falmouth by which time possibly the intensity will be down to cat-3. It's very close to Montego Bay but they will probably have the slightly less violent western eyewall or just outside of that, on the current track. 

Josh is located hopefully inland as Crawford seems to consist of two parts, one on the inland highway and one being a housing development closer to the ocean. Even at the inland road the elevation is only about 10 meters. It looks to be a wooded area with better construction than some parts of rural Jamaica. The larger town of Black River is a few miles east of Crawford, and Santa Cruz inland may be in the forward eyewall. Those places are facing considerable if not total destruction; this small hurricane intense core situation reminds me of Andrew when it devastated portions of Homestead FL in 1992, as people have been commenting, F5 tornado conditions are being reported in the eyewall. 

As bad as this is going to be, there were worse possible tracks in terms of total damage potential and consequent human tolls, 25-50 miles west would have been a lot worse, and 50-75 miles east would have brought these peak conditions into the greater Kingston area where I would imagine it's pretty rough but will perhaps peak at cat-2 intensity or less. 

The real horror may be the flooding that comes down from the mountains into places like Kingston. 

[MANDA]

Edge of eye wall coming onshore now.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

A 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron crew (call sign TEAL 75), known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, is returning to it's forward operating location in Curaçao after encountering heavy turbulence today while entering the eye of Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm.

 

During the event, the aircraft briefly experienced forces stronger than normal due to turbulence. While this does not automatically indicate damage, standard safety procedures require an inspection before returning to operations. 

 

The 53rd WRS is an Air Force Reserve unit assigned to the 403rd Wing, Keesler Air Force Base, Miss.

Was just going to post. Glad they made it out ok. 

[GaWx]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, GaWx said:

 

He’s still got nearly 70 mb to go

[eyewall]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

He’s still got nearly 70 mb to go

Is he still properly lined up for the eye with the NNW wobble?

[Newman]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Is he still properly lined up for the eye with the NNW wobble?

The center of the eye will actually go west of him

[gallopinggertie]

17 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

The real horror may be the flooding that comes down from the mountains into places like Kingston. 

This geology channel made a great (and sobering) video about why Jamaica is so prone to landslides. 

https://youtu.be/QQ4a_01mGQY?si=lUQZ_YOcv_WZ5gLo

[nycwinter]

looks like it has even intensified more then it did already this morning weather channel was saying this is basically a 200 mph hurricane if that is the case then this storm would be the strongest ever recorded in the atlantic basin surpassing even wilma..