"There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright good people! So...given the trends I officially one eye brow up. Will there be delicious snow egg on my face? (The only kind of egg I like). Or will it be white rain? Is the Euro caving?  IVT or full blown coastal? Find out in this next riveting movement of this weather symphony!

Note: Please follow the mods requests and stay on topic...and avoid bickering! We don't need that dissonance in the orchestra 

[yoda]

@WxUSAF or any mod to pin and use this thread as the new one. 

Let's all focus in more on weather/modelogy in here and keep the banter in the respective thread.  If you see posts disappearing... you should know why 

Edit - thanks @mappy

[CAPE]

Natty Blend

 

[mappy]

Please limit banter! We will be hiding posts 

[bncho]

[packfan98]

AIFS ENS has been trending much better for you guys. Best of luck. 

[Terpeast]

[RickinBaltimore]

Official forecast went up for Baltimore from earlier from 1 to 3 inches. 

[yoda]

CTP issued WSW for their counties bordering Mason-Dixon line

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PAZ024-033-211145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/
Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Somerset and Johnstown
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cambria and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PAZ057>059-064>066-211145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York,
Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  6 inches possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the
  track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result
  in higher snowfall amounts.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Official forecast went up for Baltimore from earlier from 1 to 3 inches. 

That looks pretty reasonable to me although maybe questionable for Mt Holly’s area 

[Eskimo Joe]

Mt. Holly hoisting watches. The language definitely signals a moderate to high impact event:

Quote

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, with total snow accumulations exceeding 6 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-210800-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.260222T1800Z-260223T2300Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen
Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Including the cities of Centreville, Wilmington, Rehoboth Beach,
Easton, Dover, Denton, Chestertown, and Georgetown
150 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow, with total snow accumulations exceeding 5
  inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and southern Delaware and
  northeast Maryland.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs. A bit of a jog south, but not by much.

[WEATHER53]

It may be temps that become critical as we have focused on neg tilt  and other factors.  33/34 from 11-4pm  won’t allow significant accumulation around DC unless heavy.  0.5-.75 ph rates won’t achieve equal accumulation. 1”ph rates would allow about 0.25- 0.5” ph accumulation . 32/33 improves and 31/32 is very good 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs. A bit of a jog south, but not by much.

NAM will likely hold then.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

sorry @mappyfor the previous banter, but on that note, is it time to make a banter thread? I can make one if need be

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

There isn’t a model I’d put less weight into at the moment. It has been horrid.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Latest Srefs. A bit of a jog south, but not by much.

Noise 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

sorry @mappyfor the previous banter, but on that note, is it time to make a banter thread? I can make one if need be

There is a normal banter thread. Feel free to use that or start a new one. Idc

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

There is a normal banter thread. Feel free to use that or start a new one. Idc

Might as well I guess

 

[baltosquid]

Sorry if GEPS was already posted but damn that's a good jog west!

 

[Amped]

43 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

AIFS ENS has been trending much better for you guys. Best of luck. 

Now that is how I remember hecs modeling inside 72hrs in the 2000s and early 2010s.

[balltermen]

21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It may be temps that become critical as we have focused on neg tilt  and other factors.  33/34 from 11-4pm  won’t allow significant accumulation around DC unless heavy.  0.5-.75 ph rates won’t achieve equal accumulation. 1”ph rates would allow about 0.5” ph accumulation . 32/33 improves and 31/32 is very good 

There is a lot of bust potential inside the beltway if rates are bad. I'd probably undercut guidance below 300'

We know the deal.  Dynamic cooling doesn't work here. we need a proper airmass 

[IUsedToHateCold]

5 minutes ago, balltermen said:

Dynamic cooling doesn't work here. we need a proper airmass 

What? 

If you have the rates you will get dynamic cooling. Location has nothing to do with it. 

Getting the rates could be the issue depending on what plays out. If you get under a coastal CCB you're going to get nuked with snow heavy enough that it's gonna accumulate whether you like it or not. The question is whether or not it will get west enough and how strong it will be. 

[Interstate]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
231 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

MDZ004>006-008-011-503-505-507-508-VAZ505-210345-
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast
Harford-Western Loudoun-
231 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations 5 inches or
  more are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland and
  northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Snow may
  begin Sunday morning, but the heaviest snow and coldest
  temperatures are most likely late Sunday afternoon through early
  Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night
  into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[grhqofb5]

I don’t mean to be a Debbie downer here. But (in strictly Laymans terms)isn’t there a good chance that this is going to end up being a bunch of rain because the temperature is not supposed to fall below freezing during the entire event? Having a hard time buying this one.

[yoda]

Thats a weird looking watch contour... but i guess they are going elevation for now

[weathercoins]

Yeah pretty surprised they did not put up a watch regionwide 

[Nomz]

Baltimore officially under the gun.