grhqofb5
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Everything posted by grhqofb5
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Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion
grhqofb5 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Like a record. Except the 300 ft ice wall in Antarctica that no one ever flys over. Because there’s continents on the other side. -
Ended up with about 5.25" in Odenton, MD. Heavy bonus bump came through last night to add another .5".
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That’s good for La Plata!
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There’s a 30% chance that the snow rain or ice will accumulate to somewhere between 0.1 and 3.0 inches, but only a 50% chance of that.
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January 28-29 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Obs/Discussion
grhqofb5 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Coming down hard in Annapolis, but not sticking to the roadways. 32 degrees. -
Man, I feel like I just read a script from a cross over episode of Gray’s Anatomy/Dallas/Dynasty/The love boat. Who’s going to shoot McDreamy? JR? Will Cliff Barnes take the First mate’s offer from Captain Stubing?
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Or the 1994 version of Microsoft paint to redraw the lines.
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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion
grhqofb5 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Does Mexico have a forecasting model like the MFS or something?- 4,130 replies
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- prime climo
- cold canada
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(and 1 more)
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They measured snow in perches back then, not feet. Must be a forgery.
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Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
grhqofb5 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Then we’ll know that the “trof” is not sharp enough on Thursday at 12:00 a.m., 36 hours before the estimated start, and then it will be over. I will remember that. Thank you. -
Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
grhqofb5 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
On Monday it was projected to begin on Sunday if I recall correctly. -
Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
grhqofb5 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Ok. So 96 hours out it’s looks great, 72 hours out it a dud? Seems to me like the models rule the weather forecasting universe until they’re completely wrong. But then right again 48 hours out. -
Jan 21 - 22 Weekend SE VA and Eastern Shore Snow
grhqofb5 replied to stormtracker's topic in Mid Atlantic
So, storm is cancelled 5 days before it was supposed to start? That’s almost as ridiculous as saying we’re going to get a HECS 6 days before it’s supposed to start isn’t it? -
Just not Chris Blewitt.
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Luckily I was born in 1980 so I'm not a millennial, and also can't be easily pigeon holed into Generation X. So I can offend both generations with mean jokes. BTW-- 45 in Annapolis, Dew Point 24, Barometer 29.97, and mostly sunny.
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Well, they are re-writing the rules of civilization, which makes sense because they are more intelligent and worldly than anyone born before 1982.
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No, its actually become a more serious issue in the past 10 years or so because some millennials are now old enough to creep into the public school bus driving profession.
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I almost got blown over in the parking lot of my office last night at about 9pm in Annapolis. Had to a sustained gust over 30 mph+. Hadn't trouble getting the door to my jeep closed. Gale warning for last night and this morning.
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I've always taken the position that it's more about the post-storm measureables than anything. Sure, its nice to enjoy the forecasts and the trends, but models aren't forecasts or trends, they're tools. Tools that are used to create forecasts, and which trend in certain directions as the storm event nears. But I caution you-- Models are not forecasts because they reveal nothing about the future and do not purport to predict the future, so do not fall into that trap.
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Models are not forecasts. They're tools.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
grhqofb5 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
More like the third string left guard on his senior night who is told by his coach that'll he'll play a series of downs in the 4th quarter, but when the 4th quarter rolls around the coach says "sorry kid, we actually have to try to win this game and your third string, so I would have to fire myself if I put you in now." Then the coach turns to your relatives in the stands who came to see you play, and gives them the middle finger. -
But if the angle was based on the geographic poles, i.e. the ones at the top and bottom of the planet, it would be all snow. Too bad the meteorologists, professional forecasters, cartographers, spherical engineers, and Topper Shutt cannot agree on the proper location.
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So based on my analysis, and the various vectors relevant to current atmospheric conditions and trends (past, present, and future), I believe that the precipitation shield is traveling at approximately a 30 degree northeasterly angle relative to the magnetic poles (not accounting for flat map distortion or curvature of the earth). Therefore, based on the observable rates and airborne buoys engineered for data collection purposes, in addition to geometric conditions, the immediate D.C. area, including areas slightly north, south, east, and west at varying distances from a central radius, should expect somewhere in the area of 16" to 20" inches. Of rain.
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Flurries in Annapolis. Too bad the radar shows that the precipitation will end in about an hour or two.
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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979
grhqofb5 replied to Bob Chill's topic in Mid Atlantic
32 and snow has more or less stopped in odenton.