packfan98

EPS trends look great for you all. Good luck!

Basically shifted everything south a county or so.

Good luck on reeling in another storm!

Yep. Good luck folks.

I just saw @Bob Chill post in the mid Atlantic forum. Great seeing him post again. One of my favorite all time contributors. Welcome back, sir. You’ve been missed!

6z is running now. Let’s see what it looks like.

Pivotal Weather has them for free.

Here's where the RGEM ended up. I'm trying to avoid an ice storm down here in NC. Good luck to y'all up there in the powdery regions!

6z gefs has several members bullish for the MA.

Definitely

Quite a bit more freezing rain on this run of the Euro compared to 0z. Looks like at least .25" for most with more NW of DC proper (.7").

About a 9" mean on the 12z GEFS for DC. More to the west. I know that counts all precip as snow, but it indicates quite a bit of frozen qpf.

Weatherbell is showing over .25" of fzrn for the entire subforum. .7" for DC proper with up to 1.2" to the west.

96 for the op and 144 for the ensembles I believe.

It really ramped up the precip totals for the mountains and foothills. Now showing over one inch totals.

Quick question for those with 18z Euro access (wxbell doesn't have it). Are there any ice accumulation maps available? Those just to your south are flirting with warning level ice accumulation and potential power outages on most models. Thanks, and I wish all of you the best of luck with this one!

The hi-res 3k nam has the initial plume of moisture further south:

Lots of ice on the Euro too. Shows .25 inches of ice on the detailed wxbell maps for the entire Triad.

6z FV3. A tick south of the 0z.

6z GEFS is the best run I've seen for your subforum with this. Good luck!

For you, Bob:

Here's the NWS Raleigh Discussion: As of 350 PM Sunday... Surface low has emerged off the SE Coast and will pull slowly east- northeast away from the NC coast as a series of shortwaves eject east through the base of mid/upper level trough trough in place across the SE US. Per 18z/9 GSO sounding, the cold deep near freezing isothermal layer did indeed prevail across the far northern/northwestern Piedmont, in the heart of the cold air damming region in place east of the mountains. As of 20z, latest reports coming in across that region have a snowfall maximum of 14 to 14.5 inches across Forsyth and Person counties. However, impressive mid-level dry punch overspreading the area from the west signals the loss of saturation aloft and ice crystals aloft, which will largely end the production of accumulating snow and sleet, that is until the arrival arrival of the next shortwave later this evening and overnight. Thus, expect the snow/sleet across the far northern zones to change-over to light freezing rain/drizzle to occur within the next hour. The approach of the upper wave late this evening and overnight will lead to re-saturation and cooling aloft. At the same time, weak cold dry air advection on the back-side of the surface low moving farther offshore, will result in near to sub-freezing temps across the the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. The re-introduction of lift and ice into the cloud will result in another period of light snow/sleet across spreading east across the area. Additional snowfall amounts are expected to be light, ranging between a half inch to 1 to 1.5 inches across the far northern zones. While the far SE counties could see some a mix wet snow and rain, above freezing temps in the mid 30s will result in little to accumulation.

NWS Raleigh is going for around an inch of accumulation tomorrow. Here are the expected and max potential maps:

Me too. I don't want any more fzrn!