“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[wilton_wx]

RAP looks decent...

 

[ma blizzard]

lets try to be positive here .. HREF still showing big rates 12z tmrw morning 

[CoastalWx]

Rap still slays 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I've been looking at the evaluation webpage again. This time, for precipitation (at fcst 24hr for 12z cycles) thresholds. Anywho, for frequency bias, an ideal prediction is 1.0. Negative values indicates underprediction (doesn't predict the occurrence as much as it should), and + values indicate overprediction (predicts the occurrence too often). Note: The NAM 3km consistency overpredicts for all thresholds and is outperformed by the other mesos.

For equitable threat score (removes outliers), an ideal prediction is 1.0 (0.0 indicating no skill). Based on this metric, HRRR performs best for all thresholds over the past 90 days:

 

Seeing some of the globals trend unfavorably will only bother me if the mesos follow.

Thanks for posting this. It seems the 3km NAM is always aggressive with precipitation and development, especially on leading edge of approaching weather systems and out ahead of fronts. I am guessing this is part of its scheme where it just develops precipitation too quickly? I can think of the terminology here but I did a module on MetEd last summer that went into this. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS seemed faster and kept the best rates over the Cape and extreme SE areas.  

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, wilton_wx said:

RAP looks decent...

 

Cut back a bit from 9z but still 12-18 through CT

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, ma blizzard said:

lets try to be positive here .. HREF still showing big rates 12z tmrw morning 

Encouraging

[Fozz]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS seemed faster and kept the best rates over the Cape and extreme SE areas.  

GFS would be a massive let down… how much should I weigh it at the 11th hour?

GGEM also isn’t looking great.

But the meso models are all systems go.

[Bostonseminole]

How reliable is the RAP?, so many models now!!   It's mostly unchanged from it's previous long run.

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Why would we not weigh the globals now?

It was my understanding that short term/meso models are weighted more heavily than globals this close in?

[weatherwiz]

At this point it's time to really shift focus to satellite, radar, and mesoanalysis/HRRR

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

How reliable is the RAP?, so many models now!!   It's mostly unchanged from it's previous long run.

It’s OK at this range, at this point I’m just looking at it for trends and I haven’t seen much from that.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

GFS would be a massive let down… how much should I weigh it at the 11th hour?

GGEM also isn’t looking great.

But the meso models are all systems go.

I mean, it’s hard to ignore the globals, but the meso’s holding firm is obviously in our favor.  
You’re in a pretty good spot. I’ve seen this dance before out this way so I keep my expectations in check. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If this busts I will spend the rest of my life peeling egg off of my face for spending premium $$ and time returning for 3 days.

You could be metaphysically culpable in this, Jer'   

I mean, in 1978 ... you spent the storm in the Bay Area, longing from afar.   

This time?  what, did you think you could outfox destiny's weird fetish intention of making sure Jerry misses out?    lol  

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Prob ride the mesos now. Let's see what euro does 

[Boston Bulldog]

Jan 22 had some major burp runs from global within 24 hours. Ultimately the thing did shift east a bit, but not as far as the horrific runs did. I’m a bit spooked, but at this point nowcasting and mesos have more credence 

[Masswx]

I don’t trust where I am

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

It was my understanding that short term/meso models are weighted more heavily than globals this close in?

Yes, thats what the pros used to say…but who knows what people think now.  But I agree with you on what you said. 

[Masswx]

South wey will get a half foot more than me watch

[weatherwiz]

WOAH Blizzard warning for me. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That gfs run verifying would be objectively hilarious. Not even warning amounts past Boston. And a foot contained to the cape 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

I don’t trust where I am

Just watch and enjoy however it turns out. It’s coming together now. You’ll be fine. 

[dan11295]

Funny BOX expanded the Blizzard warnings just as some of the 12z globals really cut back

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Jan 22 had some major burp runs from global within 24 hours. Ultimately the thing did shift east a bit, but not as far as the horrific runs did. I’m a bit spooked, but at this point nowcasting and mesos have more credence 

We're getting a storm...  

I don't care about senses of loss whether it's historic or even just pedestrian.  It's likely to be somewhere in between.    

It's funny, there are two competing concepts ( synoptic ) that are both true.  The -PNA never really correlate(d)(s) with this.  But, there was a relative +d(PNA) which contains this system.    Both the standard EOFs and the rotated PCAs at CPC versions, show this latter nested anomaly.  It can get the deed done.

It seems these very recent global version are wavering toward the former, more non-linear/transitive forcing.   Why that is trying to usurp now just 18 hours before go - that's maybe just the state of the technology. 

[dendrite]

I mean you kinda have to ride with the forecasts at this point. It’s too late in the game to risk windshield wipering

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thanks for posting this. It seems the 3km NAM is always aggressive with precipitation and development, especially on leading edge of approaching weather systems and out ahead of fronts. I am guessing this is part of its scheme where it just develops precipitation too quickly? I can think of the terminology here but I did a module on MetEd last summer that went into this. 

It'd be a combination of things, but at 3km, the microphysics scheme is the most important. No need for convective parameterization since the resolution will resolve it explicitly.

The NAM uses the 'Ferrier-Aligo' which is pretty old (2001), but that's just part of the story. 

It's performance w/forcing is important too... Looking real quick, it overpredicts specific humidity below 850mb (+ bias). I think that's probably a bigger culprit.

I'm sure there are some articles about this somewhere. You'd really need to do a thorough investigation. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

WOAH Blizzard warning for me. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Guess they’re not too worried about the GFS….  We Blizzard. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Masswx said:

South wey will get a half foot more than me watch

Tblizz really is your dad.

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

WOAH Blizzard warning for me. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

It appears Boston/Norton put us into that even after seeing the GFS. The only conclusion I can come to is that they believe it a glitch or outlier and the Mesos have a better handle on it. I would love to post their true thinking here on this board to see if this thinking is true.

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, Masswx said:

I don’t trust where I am

Just keep dad calm and if necessary, post a safeword here on the forum and we'll send help