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About rockchalk83

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Wichita, KS
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, forecasting, anything meteorology related. Also into reading, hockey and sports in general.

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  1. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I've been following the thread closely and while it's been somewhat unreadable at times, your analysis has been spot on. Thanks for bringing the meteorology behind this incredible storm to us!
  2. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Florence

    When do you think hurricane watches might be issued? Is it 48 hours before the earliest possible arrival of TS force winds or 48 hours before the most reasonable forecasted arrival of TS winds?
  3. To your point, the Euro is showing Ice Storm warning totals across the Kansas Turnpike corridor on Wednesday night into Thursday morning:
  4. The GFS does not handle the cold air well on the 12z run...NAM seems to handle it the best. The GFS initialized (12z) with 59 degrees in Wichita, when in reality it was 63 degrees. At 15z, the GFS had it at 37 degrees, when in reality it was 34. By 18z, 30 mins from now, the GFS predicts a temperature of 44 degrees. Wichita is currently at 31. The 12z NAM initialized much better. At 12z, it initialized with 61 degrees. At 15z, it had 32. It is predicting an 18z temp of 32 degrees for the top of the hour. Probably best to follow short range meso models for tracking the cold front and temps. As for precip, it would appear the NAM has been most consistent in that area regarding big ZR totals, but there are questions remaining on how shallow the cold air will be and if the precip falls heavy enough that it doesn't accumulate and warms the column from the top-down.
  5. rockchalk83

    January 11-13 Winter Storm

    Long time lurker...first time (in this forum, anyway) poster. I’m am planning on traveling to Indy for work on Saturday but was wondering if traveling into the area on Friday is actually better. Should I travel on Friday or wait till Saturday?
  6. Went with a persistence forecast from the year before, going with 1400-1450 total, though this is likely a high-end forecast. First high risk day on March 27 in Dixie Alley. With respect to the discussion about the Plains chase season; Amarillo has not had precip in 70+ days, Dodge City has not measured precip since early October, and Wichita is headed for it's second driest December on record (.03"). We are going to need some moisture-loaded systems to start coming around out here in order to have an appreciable season. To me, the coming severe weather season feels like it will be an I-35 and east year, though there may be one or two opportunities to get a solid event west of there. My main concern is for another significant fire season.
  7. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Saying a major metro area has "dodged a bullet" ~36 hours before landfall is premature. We've seen models over correct one way and then revert back to a previous solution. No model can be expected to have the eye of the storm within 20 miles of verification ~36 hours before landfall. That said, the trend is the trend...but caveat emptor when it comes to extrapolating said trend.
  8. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet.
  9. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory.
  10. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    They don't issue special advisories based off pressure.
  11. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Yes. The system(s) in question still have to be sampled properly, which is the reason for the extra balloon launches at NWS offices in the midwest. This data will be put into the 00z models, which should begin to help minimize the spread.
  12. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Most of the reliable global models today are agreeing that a turn north will happen, but disagree on where that happens at exactly, as well as where a final landfall will be. It's important to note that there will likely be impacts to Florida, regardless of how close the system gets.
  13. rockchalk83

    Major Hurricane Irma

    This storm will be unique from a research angle, because it seems to me that it's taken Irma about 12 hours or so to complete these ERC's. Some storms struggle to make it complete in 24 hours.
  14. rockchalk83

    Harvey - Main Thread

    I think the eyewall misses Corpus to the north, but it looks like Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca may score a direct hit.
  15. rockchalk83

    Harvey - Main Thread

    Starting to feel a tad better about a direct hit in Corpus Christi from the worst of the surge/wind. Winds remain dead out of the north there and the motion appears to be more NNW than NW which would take it right toward Corpus Christi. Most likely area for landfall looks to be around Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca area.