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About rockchalk83

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Wichita, KS
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, forecasting, anything meteorology related. Also into reading, hockey and sports in general.

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  1. The 3KM NAM with a little different look than it's traditional counterpart. The biggest headache with the forecast is going to be where the system matures...along and northwest of that point, is going to be where the heaviest snow falls. Unfortunately, we may not know that until the high-res hourly runs tomorrow, even though the system will be fully sampled in later model runs today.
  2. I'll agree with MUWX's assessment that the bulls eye right now is between I-70 and I-44. Something to keep in mind here is that this isn't the typical winter system we have out here, where we have a huge low coming out and a large precip shield. Rather, this is a rather weak low and the event will be driven by warm air advection processes. The whole forecast is going to hinge on where the baroclinic zone sets up, as that will be the axis that sees the 2-8" snows. Overall, for it being >3 days out, the models have a good agreement on some type of winter storm out here this weekend. It will be nice to see some snow over a widespread area, since most of us have been dry for a while.
  3. Would love to see the justification by NHC for calling this a hurricane now, other than to verify the Hurricane Warning.
  4. If the mean trough is in the Southwest US, wouldn’t that mean more severe weather for our region?
  5. Some places in SC KS got 10 inches of snow. The town of Kingman, just west of Wichita, picked up 3 inches in one hour as a band really intensified overhead. This banding feature was really well forecasted, starting with the 18z NAM on Monday and continuing throughout the event.
  6. Seeing ice storm warnings go up for the KC and Joplin areas...and it's possible those could be expanded south and west later. HRRR, RAP & ECMWF all prog significant freezing rain event (>.2") in C & E KS into NW MO tonight. Meanwhile, storms going up south of the stationary boundary in C OK.
  7. The storm system won't be as deep as it moves through my part of the fact, it's likely to be an open wave. The upshot of that is not as much cold air on the backside. Temp guidance for Sunday has warmed 20-25 degrees since Tuesday.
  8. Here's a look at 925 mb winds based off the GFS for Saturday morning at 6 am. The red indicates winds at 50-55 kts about 2000 feet off the surface. If this verifies, then we may very well have blizzard conditions across C & E KS into parts of West Missouri.
  9. Agree with this. When you look at the winds that are progged behind the cold front, we could very easily have blizzard conditions over a wide area if this comes to pass. FWIW, the 12z GFS ensembles had a much snowier solution than the operational run.
  10. If the latest NAM/Euro/Canadian models are right...that will have to be shifted west and increased.
  11. Right there with you, especially after what the 18z NAM and 12z Canadian is showing.
  12. I’ll take ALL of that. But it’s the NAM at >12 hours so...