rockchalk83

A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow.

Rain is changing to snow in Newton and Goddard, won’t be long for us. Gonna be an interesting night.

Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas.

Do you think the MON/TUE system will shift south? In reading the AFDs from DDC and ICT, their mets seem to think so.

New wrinkle from the Euro on this latest run, it cuts off the upper low as it strengthens during the day Monday (similar to the 00z GEM). Looks to be a colder and slower solution, too. Of course, the end result will likely be a blizzard for some portion of Kansas/N OK. EDIT: Holy boats, this 00z Euro run is pure weather porn.

GFS appears to be much slower and slightly deeper this run. 500mb low deepens as it moves east across western Oklahoma. Decent hit for Kansas, with strong winds….

We have about 3” on the ground here in Wichita. Roads are all gummed up. Has anyone checked out the models this morning on storm #2?

Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see.

Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops.

I finished with 8” here on the west side of Wichita. A beautiful snow, and hope there’s more coming this winter.

I'll admit, I fell hook, line and sinker for the NAM. Especially once the 3KM NAM got within 48 hours and it was pumping out 3-5" totals for S KS. And for a time yesterday, it looked like we were going to get that...but, marginal temps means just more moisture in the ground.

Storms in warm sector of these storms always tend to rob the moisture from the snow side. It's something the models struggle mightily at trying to predict. Take what we can get, though, we're still in a drought after all.

There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid.

Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here.

Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. Though, the NAM may be onto something...