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About rockchalk83

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Wichita, KS
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, forecasting, anything meteorology related. Also into reading, hockey and sports in general.
  1. Saying a major metro area has "dodged a bullet" ~36 hours before landfall is premature. We've seen models over correct one way and then revert back to a previous solution. No model can be expected to have the eye of the storm within 20 miles of verification ~36 hours before landfall. That said, the trend is the trend...but caveat emptor when it comes to extrapolating said trend.
  2. Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet.
  3. I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory.
  4. They don't issue special advisories based off pressure.
  5. Yes. The system(s) in question still have to be sampled properly, which is the reason for the extra balloon launches at NWS offices in the midwest. This data will be put into the 00z models, which should begin to help minimize the spread.
  6. Most of the reliable global models today are agreeing that a turn north will happen, but disagree on where that happens at exactly, as well as where a final landfall will be. It's important to note that there will likely be impacts to Florida, regardless of how close the system gets.
  7. This storm will be unique from a research angle, because it seems to me that it's taken Irma about 12 hours or so to complete these ERC's. Some storms struggle to make it complete in 24 hours.
  8. I think the eyewall misses Corpus to the north, but it looks like Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca may score a direct hit.
  9. Starting to feel a tad better about a direct hit in Corpus Christi from the worst of the surge/wind. Winds remain dead out of the north there and the motion appears to be more NNW than NW which would take it right toward Corpus Christi. Most likely area for landfall looks to be around Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca area.
  10. I was trying to provide some scientific reasoning as to why the 3 km NAM is LOL-tastic.
  11. We should be able to get a decent view of what the environment is ahead of the storm, as NWS offices will be doing balloon launches every six hours to help with modeling.
  12. Except 91L wouldn't be Franklin, it would be Harvey.
  13. Has anyone looked into Thursday any further? NWS Wichita seems skeptical on the degree of rapid moisture return being progged by GFS, NAM. I must admit, it feels like to me the degree of the threat on Thursday hinges on how far northwest the warm front returns.
  14. JoJo762...That is the day I'm referring to wrt Thursday's potential.
  15. Agreed with what's already been said, that Tuesday looks pretty nice on the GFS and Euro. Thursday does too if the warm sector can remain undisturbed. Thursday/Friday's setup reminds me of a set up we had in mid-May last year, where we had a really impressive parameter space, but everything went up at Noon and it was a dud. Let's hope that is not the case this go around. Perhaps the biggest threat from all of this may be the flooding. Much of S KS, OK, S MO and NW AR have had 10-30 inches of rain in the last 60 days and another 2-4 inches (at least) is expected.