Jump to content


  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About rockchalk83

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Wichita, KS
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, forecasting, anything meteorology related. Also into reading, hockey and sports in general.
  1. January 11-13 Winter Storm

    Long time lurker...first time (in this forum, anyway) poster. I’m am planning on traveling to Indy for work on Saturday but was wondering if traveling into the area on Friday is actually better. Should I travel on Friday or wait till Saturday?
  2. Went with a persistence forecast from the year before, going with 1400-1450 total, though this is likely a high-end forecast. First high risk day on March 27 in Dixie Alley. With respect to the discussion about the Plains chase season; Amarillo has not had precip in 70+ days, Dodge City has not measured precip since early October, and Wichita is headed for it's second driest December on record (.03"). We are going to need some moisture-loaded systems to start coming around out here in order to have an appreciable season. To me, the coming severe weather season feels like it will be an I-35 and east year, though there may be one or two opportunities to get a solid event west of there. My main concern is for another significant fire season.
  3. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    Saying a major metro area has "dodged a bullet" ~36 hours before landfall is premature. We've seen models over correct one way and then revert back to a previous solution. No model can be expected to have the eye of the storm within 20 miles of verification ~36 hours before landfall. That said, the trend is the trend...but caveat emptor when it comes to extrapolating said trend.
  4. Major Hurricane Irma

    Because the new Euro run hasn't come out yet.
  5. Major Hurricane Irma

    I read the same thing you did, however, there's not another category for this storm to go up to (which triggers the special advisory,) so it will likely be updated with the intermediate advisory.
  6. Major Hurricane Irma

    They don't issue special advisories based off pressure.
  7. Major Hurricane Irma

    Yes. The system(s) in question still have to be sampled properly, which is the reason for the extra balloon launches at NWS offices in the midwest. This data will be put into the 00z models, which should begin to help minimize the spread.
  8. Major Hurricane Irma

    Most of the reliable global models today are agreeing that a turn north will happen, but disagree on where that happens at exactly, as well as where a final landfall will be. It's important to note that there will likely be impacts to Florida, regardless of how close the system gets.
  9. Major Hurricane Irma

    This storm will be unique from a research angle, because it seems to me that it's taken Irma about 12 hours or so to complete these ERC's. Some storms struggle to make it complete in 24 hours.
  10. Harvey - Main Thread

    I think the eyewall misses Corpus to the north, but it looks like Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca may score a direct hit.
  11. Harvey - Main Thread

    Starting to feel a tad better about a direct hit in Corpus Christi from the worst of the surge/wind. Winds remain dead out of the north there and the motion appears to be more NNW than NW which would take it right toward Corpus Christi. Most likely area for landfall looks to be around Seadrift/Port O'Connor/Port Lavaca area.
  12. Harvey - Main Thread

    I was trying to provide some scientific reasoning as to why the 3 km NAM is LOL-tastic.
  13. Harvey - Main Thread

    We should be able to get a decent view of what the environment is ahead of the storm, as NWS offices will be doing balloon launches every six hours to help with modeling.
  14. Harvey - Main Thread

    Except 91L wouldn't be Franklin, it would be Harvey.
  15. May 15-20 Severe Threat

    Has anyone looked into Thursday any further? NWS Wichita seems skeptical on the degree of rapid moisture return being progged by GFS, NAM. I must admit, it feels like to me the degree of the threat on Thursday hinges on how far northwest the warm front returns.