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rockchalk83

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About rockchalk83

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KICT
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Wichita, KS
  • Interests
    Storm chasing, forecasting, anything meteorology related. Also into reading, hockey and sports in general.
  1. Has anyone looked into Thursday any further? NWS Wichita seems skeptical on the degree of rapid moisture return being progged by GFS, NAM. I must admit, it feels like to me the degree of the threat on Thursday hinges on how far northwest the warm front returns.
  2. JoJo762...That is the day I'm referring to wrt Thursday's potential.
  3. Agreed with what's already been said, that Tuesday looks pretty nice on the GFS and Euro. Thursday does too if the warm sector can remain undisturbed. Thursday/Friday's setup reminds me of a set up we had in mid-May last year, where we had a really impressive parameter space, but everything went up at Noon and it was a dud. Let's hope that is not the case this go around. Perhaps the biggest threat from all of this may be the flooding. Much of S KS, OK, S MO and NW AR have had 10-30 inches of rain in the last 60 days and another 2-4 inches (at least) is expected.
  4. My prediction: 18/10/5 Pre-season: 1/0/0 June: 0/0/0 July: 2/1/1 August: 4/3/1 September: 6/4/2 October: 4/2/1 November: 1/0/0
  5. Sorry for the OT response...but I'm lurking in here. Would love to be in your shoes out here. We have had a bone dry winter and several major fires in the last week. While the Euro & GFS both suggest 80s here for Sunday, we need rain/snow desperately or this is going to be a very dry year. Something to point out on a satellite picture from a few (or a lot) posts ago...the gravity waves in the convective stream in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a tremendous amount of energy headed your way...should be quite a show tomorrow. Good luck to everyone up there! Back to lurking for me.
  6. Thank God for human weather observers....
  7. Of note, the 12z Euro is colder, keeping the surface freezing line in SE KS through 00z Monday, then barely trickles it northwest of Wichita by 00z Monday, right as another heavy wave of precip starts. That maybe the saving grace, but it is going to be SOOO close.
  8. Thanks! It was odd to read TSFZRA in a TAF discussion. Areas about 60-70 miles west of here are gonna get clobbered.
  9. Looking for 1/2-1" of ice here in SC KS tonight into Sunday afternoon. Ice, with thunder and lightning, will start falling within the next 2 hours here. Local NWS doesn't seem as bullish on modification as previously.
  10. So, here's a question for Brett or some of the other mets who are frequenting our board. The high-res models do not show precip in SC KS till 12-18z Saturday. What impact does this have on the overall forecast? My hunch is the longer we do not precipitate in this air (currently 25/12) and wetbulb it, the worse the could be because of prolonged cold air advection? Or will it not matter much once the precip starts due to latent heat release?
  11. The 12z NAM is in and has substantial ice accumulations across W OK, SW into Central KS....with slightly lesser amounts (.2-1/2") across Missouri. If these temps are 1 or 2 degrees colder, then this is drastically worse.
  12. Is there one thing we should be watching in the event -- such as temps at 925mb or wetbulb temp -- that would indicate to us what the trend is?
  13. Watches up for N & W OK...and now SC KS. Looking for up to one inch of ice in SC KS thru Sunday afternoon.
  14. .2-.4" total ice. Changes to liquid rain during the day Sunday. Would believe most of the ice happens on Friday afternoon-Saturday morning.
  15. 1.0" ice. Changes to liquid rain by Monday at 12z.