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rockchalk83

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  1. rockchalk83
    A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow.
  2. rockchalk83
    Rain is changing to snow in Newton and Goddard, won’t be long for us. Gonna be an interesting night.
  3. rockchalk83
    Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas.
  4. rockchalk83
    Do you think the MON/TUE system will shift south? In reading the AFDs from DDC and ICT, their mets seem to think so.
  5. rockchalk83
    New wrinkle from the Euro on this latest run, it cuts off the upper low as it strengthens during the day Monday (similar to the 00z GEM). Looks to be a colder and slower solution, too. Of course, the end result will likely be a blizzard for some portion of Kansas/N OK. EDIT: Holy boats, this 00z Euro run is pure weather porn.
  6. rockchalk83
    GFS appears to be much slower and slightly deeper this run. 500mb low deepens as it moves east across western Oklahoma. Decent hit for Kansas, with strong winds….
  7. rockchalk83
    We have about 3” on the ground here in Wichita. Roads are all gummed up. Has anyone checked out the models this morning on storm #2?
  8. rockchalk83
    Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see.
  9. rockchalk83
    Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops.
  10. rockchalk83
    I finished with 8” here on the west side of Wichita. A beautiful snow, and hope there’s more coming this winter.
  11. rockchalk83
    I'll admit, I fell hook, line and sinker for the NAM. Especially once the 3KM NAM got within 48 hours and it was pumping out 3-5" totals for S KS. And for a time yesterday, it looked like we were going to get that...but, marginal temps means just more moisture in the ground.
  12. rockchalk83
    Storms in warm sector of these storms always tend to rob the moisture from the snow side. It's something the models struggle mightily at trying to predict. Take what we can get, though, we're still in a drought after all.
  13. rockchalk83
    There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid.
  14. rockchalk83
    Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here.
  15. rockchalk83
    Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. Though, the NAM may be onto something...
  16. rockchalk83
    Break out the sad trombone for the southern Kansas folk. It's too warm for snow the system today, and the storm for Tuesday/Wednesday looks to be too far south to do anything, unless there's a drastic shift north. Bummer. On the plus side, western Kansas (where the heart of the D4 drought is,) is getting some much needed snowfall. Onward.
  17. rockchalk83
    This 100%. Finally nice to see something around here other than tumbleweeds and duststorms.
  18. rockchalk83
    Looks like thru hour 72 of the Euro, it's stronger with the 500 mb low in northern Arizona than it was on 00z run. There's a 537 dm circle centered near the AZ/NM line. So far, the trend overall with this run has been for a stronger, slightly farther north, system.
  19. rockchalk83
    The Canadian model holds serve from its past several runs (this is combined for both tomorrow's and the Tue/Wed storm). Now we wait for the Euro.
  20. rockchalk83
    I have a hard time buying a foot plus to the I-44 corridor with marginal temps like the GFS is trying to sell. It's trying to do produce 3 inches of snow here in SC KS tomorrow with temps of 34-37 degrees. That said, dynamic cooling is an equalizer.
  21. rockchalk83
    Just glanced at the 18z Euro Ensemble and it trended stronger and more northerly with the 25th system. Would be a decent hit for most here.
  22. rockchalk83
    Color me intrigued
  23. rockchalk83
    Looks like models give N OK 1-2" of snow Saturday night into Sunday. Not sure what to make of the storm aoa the 25th. Each model shows the range of possibilities with this. Upper lows that dig south across the Rockies are tricky.
  24. rockchalk83
    We're down to 1/8 mile vis here in Wichita, heavy snow, blowing snow, fog. -5 with a wind chill of -32. North winds to 50 mph, but we've gusted higher. The -32 wind chill is the lowest reported value here since 2000. First snow squall warning issued for our area this morning. We won't verify a blizzard in all likelihood, but this has been one gnarly ass storm.
  25. rockchalk83
    We have had light freezing drizzle/snow grains most of the day here in Central Kansas. It's the lift ahead of the front. Once that passes, it should be over.
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