rockchalk83

Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft killed the forecast in all likelihood. It didn't show up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight. But in all reality, it is very hard to get a >10" snowstorm out in this part of the country. The numbers being put on the street by models and others yesterday were surreal. In some way, it felt like a bad troll job. The synoptic setup of having arctic air come in ~12 hours before the event will always cause issues because the initial cold air advection in those airmasses can be quite powerful. Having done some case study work on this, most big snowfalls in this part of the country have had 24-48 hours of cold in place before the snow begins.

Looks like the 3 KM NAM went back north just a smidge. Still widespread 8-12" for most here:

06z Euro keeps this trend up. It feels like a fast outlier compared to the short-term, high-res modeling. Will be interesting to see if there is a shift in trends as we go through the day.

One trend to watch is the positioning of the 850 front. The HRRR hints at it becoming more NE-SW oriented due to warm air advection with the low to the southwest, as opposed to W-E as some of the other models have it. The result becomes a big hit in S KS/NC OK, with more sleet & freezing rain in NE OK & SW MO, before eventually changing to snow.

Wichita issued a winter storm watch, too, and have “moderate to heavy accumulations of greater than 4 inches” in the watch text. Wouldn’t shock me to see that watch get pulled farther west and north.

That's the 850 & 700 mb fronts stalling in response to the low pressure developing to the west.

Will you post the 12 Z models?

The first of two winter storms will impact the region Monday night into midday Tuesday, and doesn't really look all that impactful for the region. The Euro paints an icing event for the I-44 corridor (image below), with heavy snow across northern Oklahoma and much of Kansas. If this is true, the second storm Tuesday night and Wednesday will cause significant travel issues for the region.

Yeah, we did. The interesting thing about this system is that the upper level feature is in a more closed low setup, which leads to slower progression and more lift for snow. Already 4-6" across the Wichita metro, with probably another 6-8 hours of snow to go. Someone is getting 10+" in south-central Kansas.

Good luck everyone! Snow just beginning to fall here in Wichita, looking at 3 to 5 inches before it’s all over.

A little concerned the ensembles remain drier than the operational runs and we see a drying trend in the operational models over the next couple of days. Especially with the volume of cold air coming. Either way, dangerous weather is coming with the combo of dangerous cold and atleast some snow.

Rain is changing to snow in Newton and Goddard, won’t be long for us. Gonna be an interesting night.

Meanwhile, the 850 mb low for this current storm system was analyzed 100 miles farther south than modeled. High-res models have been trending up on this current threat this morning. But farther west from where @RocketWXand I are...it's a full scale blizzard in Western Kansas.

Do you think the MON/TUE system will shift south? In reading the AFDs from DDC and ICT, their mets seem to think so.

New wrinkle from the Euro on this latest run, it cuts off the upper low as it strengthens during the day Monday (similar to the 00z GEM). Looks to be a colder and slower solution, too. Of course, the end result will likely be a blizzard for some portion of Kansas/N OK. EDIT: Holy boats, this 00z Euro run is pure weather porn.

GFS appears to be much slower and slightly deeper this run. 500mb low deepens as it moves east across western Oklahoma. Decent hit for Kansas, with strong winds….

We have about 3” on the ground here in Wichita. Roads are all gummed up. Has anyone checked out the models this morning on storm #2?

Definitely looks like we **could** have a decent event here in SC Kansas. Local NWS mentioning a cooling trend in the temp profile and models seem to be latching onto a weak TROWAL signature. We'll see.

Once we get past the 4th of January, the pattern looks to get more active. Can’t wait to see how this develops.

I finished with 8” here on the west side of Wichita. A beautiful snow, and hope there’s more coming this winter.

I'll admit, I fell hook, line and sinker for the NAM. Especially once the 3KM NAM got within 48 hours and it was pumping out 3-5" totals for S KS. And for a time yesterday, it looked like we were going to get that...but, marginal temps means just more moisture in the ground.

Storms in warm sector of these storms always tend to rob the moisture from the snow side. It's something the models struggle mightily at trying to predict. Take what we can get, though, we're still in a drought after all.

There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid.

Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here.

Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. Though, the NAM may be onto something...