rockchalk83

Just downright nuts.

Looks like a 1-3" event here Friday into Saturday, but a more substantial event for the late weekend period. This does appear to be a more aggressive run of the Euro, so we'll see what the ensembles say.

The 12z GFS Ensembles backed off on the amount of precip with the weekend system, but still has >6" for most of our area in the next 240 hours. Let's see what the Euro does.

If anything, the NAM looks a little more bundled and deeper with the energy than the GFS does...at least that what my eyes tell me. I think the runs today and tomorrow will be interesting to see which side wins out here.

Not good, Bob. I wonder why the major change? I wonder if there was a major wave buckle in the Pacific that led to the pattern change?

It’s quite possible that I’m salivating after looking at that.

The forecast high for Wichita today is 18. We've had light snow all morning long (snowing at a decent clip right now)...there's no shot we get to 18 if this continues. Temps falling into the single digits 30-40 miles north of here. And as for the 12z GFS, if that's crazy....sign me up! If we're going to go big with the cold, let's go big with the snow.

I’m not near my computer to look, but are the GFS and Canadian still showing snowy and cold solutions?

To what?

Still snowing hard here. 6" and we're snowing at 1-2"/hr again. Winds are picking up, too, so we're seeing whiteouts.

The Euro/Canadian sniffed out the overall trend first. Feel for SC KS, the Euro did the best. Short term models were a little too far southeast with the heaviest band.

Started snowing here in Wichita about 4 am...have picked up 4" (2" between 7 & 8 am) and it's still snowing. Biggest storm since 2014.

I am right there with you on all those points. One other question I’ll throw in is how far west does the main deformation precip shield get. I have a hard time buying the razor thin cut off that some are showing, but that may just be wishful thinking. The latest model runs give me even more pause that the streak won’t end tomorrow, but it’s time to nowcast this out and see how it evolves. Good luck and happy new year to all! We survived 2020.

I hope you’re right....but I’m naturally pessimistic. 7 years of little snow does that to you. Haha.

Tight rope for Wichita. If we get >4” of snow, it will be the biggest storm in almost 7 years. Insane.

The NAM, GFS, and Euro have been ultra consistent...

It implies the system would be stronger and potentially take on a negative tilt.

Interesting note from NWS Norman regarding the 12z model initializations. FWIW, the 21z RAP edged west with the main precip shield, while the 18z Euro maintained. The complicating factor with this forecast is that for precipitation amounts and types with the cyclone, the models widely diverge in solutions and the impacts that result from the solutions. In discussions with WPC, the GFS/NAM 12z initialization had a 30 meter initialization error in the 500mb height fields, which should have a sharper upper-level trough. For this forecast more weight was put towards the ECMWF solution for precipitation location and type, however the forecast for precipitation type/impacts could drastically change with any shifts in path of the cyclone.

I will give up weather if that happens. What a close shave!

FWIW, the 12z HREF from the SPC is fairly similar to the Euro in track and slightly colder. It has a wide area of 1/4-1/2" ice across SE KS, SW MO and NE OK. With the wind that's forecast with this, power outages are going to be a distinct possibility.

That's a big area of heavy freezing rain on the Euro for 12z Friday. Yikes.

It is interesting to note that the short-term models (granted, they're still just coming into their respective time domains) do not have the system as far west as the ECMWF, GFS, ICON models. Just a slight nudge east. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues as the system gets into better focus for the high-res models.

Looks like model initializations were all over the place on the 00z suite of runs. It is interesting to note that the 06z HRRR (48 hrs) was among the colder of the models, with a larger area of sleet and snow. Will be something to follow today as that could significantly ratchet up snow totals for western Oklahoma into Kansas.

Generally, if the snowpack falls over a wide area, it can act as a refrigerant (lack of a better phrase here) to lock in the cold airmass. In this instance, the winds are coming from the south and there will be intense theta-e advection over the cold, which may actually enhance the potential for icing.

We take.