rockchalk83

Kuchera may be better where the cold air is deepest (eg S KS, WC into C MO, and NW OK). There, SLRs could be 15:1, similar to what we had out here on New Year's Day.

Admittedly, I am. But here in southern Kansas, what will mess it up is if the high pressure comes in and shoves everything farther south...which has been the trend in the last 24 hours, at least in the deterministic models. The ensembles still hold on to the baroclinic zone farther north, on average.

@StormChazergot the hookup on Euro maps? I’m out with the wife at a Sam’s Club that doubles as a zoo.

I had been wondering this same thing for the last couple days.

Just looking at the models & their ensembles from this morning, it looks like the general theme is for the cold front to stall somewhere in northern or central Oklahoma during the day Tuesday, with precip developing out ahead of an upper air disturbance Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. If I were to forecast this, I would hedge the front/baroclinic zone and associated precip farther south, due to the dense nature of the colder air. Still though, think this is a good shot for all of us to see some much needed moisture and snowfall, but the bigger story, to me, is the colder air that will come down on the backside of this. Temps will likely be pretty cold for four or five days after the storm passes by.

You have a truly unenviable spot in deciding whether to pull down forecast numbers or not. Oof.

Generally, how have the meso models done with situations like this in your region? Do you see signs in any of them that this will tick back NW. Watching all of this from Kansas, as there's been nothing worth following out here since the big windstorm on December 15.

Wagons up from BOX

Would think that unless the baroclinic zone stops, that most of the region would get in on some form of wintry precip. The Canadian has mirrored the Euro to some extent with two waves of precip along a stationary front. I'm already living and dying by the models in the NE forum (yes, I'm a degenerate), Euro runs in an hour...let's see what happens.

I wonder how much the above normal SSTs in the NW Atlantic is helping in the latent heat/meso low production process. Gotta think it has something to do with it.

What is a KU storm?

The storm system sliding down the Front Range of the Rockies had dumped 12-20" in a narrow band from west central Kansas into northeast Colorado. Euro & GFS show the possibility of snow showers in OK tomorrow into Thursday, not much accumulation though. Looking farther abroad, the models seem to be honing in on a busy period (anything would be considered "busy" after the winter we've had so far) beginning around next Monday. At least one storm shown on the main 12z model suite. Perhaps JoMo or some of the others can elaborate on the broader strokes behind the pattern change, but it looked to me that the MJO gets into phase 8 as the AO trends negative.

The development of a TROWAL feature is where the game will be played in this forecast. There maybe some concerns with the temps initially, but should see things quickly change over once you get into that band on the north side of the low. Where the southeast movement slows and begins an east progression, someone is going to get socked. Sure wish this would back up even 150 miles. It's parched out here in southern Kansas and the drought shows no signs of letting up.

Same here. It is interesting that some of the CAMs (NAMNest, WRF-NSSL namely) bring the snow shield just past the Kansas Turnpike. Also, Dodge City and several sites in SW KS have been seeing snow for a while now and I wonder if that's not some signs of a baroclinic zone developing. FWIW, none of the models had this developing.

Caved for your area? It still looks decent for Oklahoma and Kansas.

It was just off shore this AM and made landfall in NW Washington earlier this afternoon...so it should be much better sampled tonight.

I’m puzzled by the discrepancy. My guess is that the NAM has a deeper wave, the GFS has a flatter solution.

Still lightly snowing here in Wichita. Should be over in the next hour or so, but we have not made it above zero yet. Headed to -15 overnight. Ouch.

New NAM 12km model rolling in...system looks to be a little stronger but neutral to a slight positive tilt. Higher totals for S KS.

It is past time to modernize the power grid. There is no way we should be faced with rolling blackouts in the middle of an historic cold outbreak.

Picked up another half-inch in the last six hours. Officially 4" on the ground here in Wichita.

I have about 4.5" here in Wichita. Measured it about 8 times. In the words of Bill Belichick, "We're on to late Tuesday..."

Same here. Will definitely be giving it credence for the mid-week stuff, too.

I'm quite surprised to see the HRRR doing this poorly. The RAP has also done pretty well with this system, too.

It came north some.